The NS Interview: Martin Rees, president of the Royal Society

“Creationists are people who are intellectually deprived”

What is the Royal Society's role in our age?
We support and promote excellent scientific research. But we also engage with the public and with political process. More and more often, policy issues have scientific aspects.

Do you ever feel politics holds science back?
It's our job as scientists to ensure that politicians' decisions are based on the best possible scientific advice, but obviously they have other criteria, too. The other problem is that many important long-term issues, such as population growth, don't have immediate impact. It's hard to keep them high on the political agenda.

How do you get people to engage with the concept of climate change?
It's difficult. The science is complicated and there's a lot of debate about what sacrifices we should make now for future generations. Also, it's global, so action has to be international. But the UK has shown political leadership, and we could and should take a lead in developing technologies needed for a low-carbon economy.

What are your thoughts on the politicians and scientists who fuel climate-change scepticism?
Essentially, all scientists who have looked into the evidence and understood it agree: there are uncertainties about the projections, but there
is undoubted evidence not only of climate change now, but of more drastic climate change in the future.

What about those who claim it's a conspiracy?
I think you should ask them.

What led you to astronomy?
To be honest, I specialised in science because I was bad at languages.

What does it tell us about the universe?
Charles Darwin gave us a perspective on how life had emerged from simple beginnings. We're trying to take his work further and ask where did the earth and the stars come from? We have developed, with fair confidence, a picture of how the first atoms, stars and planets evolved from some mysterious beginning 14 billion years ago. This grander picture, I think, is one of the triumphs of science in recent decades.

Some people dispute this picture. In the US, the creationists are a powerful force.
They're the sort of people who are intellectually deprived. They don't appreciate the wonderful story that science has opened up for us.

"Story" is an unusual way to describe it.
Science is really part of culture. One is culturally deprived if one is unaware of Darwinism and evolution, and DNA and all these things. And it's the most universal culture.

Science crosses borders, in other words?
Yes. Astronomy especially, because all cultures in all parts of the world throughout human
history have looked at the night sky. They've interpreted it differently, but it's the one thing that they've all wondered about.

Do your academic interests give you a strong sense of humans' insignificance?
My professional perspective on the cosmos doesn't make me worry any less about what will happen tomorrow, or next week.

Really? It doesn't alter your view?
There is one special perspective. Most educated people are aware that we're the outcome of billions of years of evolution, but they tend to feel we're somehow the end of it. But we are less than halfway through the sun's life - there is as much time ahead as it has taken for us to emerge from the primordial slime. So astronomy does give one a feeling about the long-range future.

In your book Our Final Century, you give an apocalyptic view of our time.
This century is the first in which human consumption puts pressure on the entire planet. And advances in technology, which have had benign effects overall, can pose new threats and challenges. In the old days, there was a limit to how much damage one could do, but a village idiot in the global village is more disquieting.

Was there a plan?
I knew I was going to do something academic, but the detail was unpredictable. I've been very fortunate, in many respects.

Did you vote, before you became a life peer?
I've always been more politically engaged than most scientists. When I finish as president of the Royal Society I shall spend more time in the House of Lords and on other political activity.

What will be your key issues?
The kind of issues where a scientific perspective is helpful.

Does politics need more scientists?
Politics involves many issues beyond science, but we do need scientist citizens, with different political views, to take part in public debate.

Are we all doomed?
I certainly hope not. I don't expect we are. This is the best time for young people to be alive.

Sophie Elmhirst is features editor of the New Statesman

This article first appeared in the 05 April 2010 issue of the New Statesman, GOD

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Puffins in peril

Britain’s best-loved seabird is vulnerable to global extinction.

The boatmen helped us scramble ashore and soon there were 50 people wandering on an uninhab­ited slab of sea-battered dolerite called Staple Island. It is one of the National Trust-owned Farne Islands in Northumberland and among England’s most spectacular wildlife locations. There are 100,000 pairs of breeding seabirds here and they were everywhere: at our feet, overhead, across every rock face. The stench of guano was overwhelming.

While the birds seemed to be boundless, the human beings converged on the grassy knoll where the local star attraction resides. It’s the creature that adorns the boat company’s publicity and is emblazoned on the National Trust’s website for the island, the bird that possesses what the poet Norman MacCaig called the “mad, clever clown’s beak”: the pint-sized, parrot-faced puffin.

The British love for this creature is so intense that it is, in essence, the robin redbreast of the sea. Nearly all of its breeding colonies around our coast are tourist attractions. Just across the water, along the shore from Staple Island, is the town of Amble, which holds an annual festival devoted to the puffin. From Lundy in Devon and Skomer in Pembrokeshire to the Isle of May off the Fife coast, or Fair Isle in the Shetlands, trips to puffin colonies are frequent, sometimes daily, events.

“Every tourist shop on these islands sells puffin merchandise – knitwear patterns, tumblers, carvings, coasters, cuddly toys, clothes and, of course, puffin hats,” Helen Moncrieff, the area manager in Shetland for the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), told me.

While the love affair is unquestionable, what seems in doubt is our ability to help the bird now that it is in trouble. Fair Isle once supported a puffin colony of 20,000 birds. In less than three decades, that number has halved. Similar declines have been reported at Britain’s most important puffin site on St Kilda, Scotland, where millions are said to have bred. Now there are fewer than 130,000 pairs, half the total recorded as recently as the 1970s.

The national picture is alarming but the news from elsewhere is even worse. Continental Europe holds more than 90 per cent – five million pairs – of the global total of Atlantic puffins but they are shared primarily between three countries: Denmark (the Faroe Islands), Iceland and Norway. Across this subarctic region, losses have been estimated at 33 per cent since 1979, when monitoring began. But the most striking figure comes from a colony on Røst, Norway, where there has been a fall over this period from nearly 1.5 million pairs to 285,000.

The Westman Islands off the south coast of Iceland hold a substantial proportion of the country’s puffins. Since 2005, breeding success there has been almost nil, and a similar failure has recurred on the Faroe Islands for more than a decade. In both places, where hunting puffins was once a staple of cultural life, catchers today have initiated a self-imposed moratorium.

Puffins are long-lived species and a life­span of between 20 and 30 years is not unusual, yet Euan Dunn, principal marine adviser to the RSPB, explains the implications of persistent breeding failure. “Puffins on Shetland or the Westmans may go on attempting to breed for years, even decades, but eventually all those old adult birds will die off and, if they haven’t reproduced, then the numbers will start to plunge.”

BirdLife International, a conservation network that classifies the status of birds worldwide, has reached the same conclusion. It judges that the Atlantic puffin is likely to decline by between 50 and 79 per cent by 2065. The nation’s most beloved seabird has been declared a species that is vulnerable to global extinction.

To unpick the story of puffin losses, marine ecologists have examined the bird’s oceanic ecosystem and looked particularly at changes in the status of a cold-water zooplankton called Calanus finmarchicus. This seemingly insignificant, shrimp-like organism plays a crucial role in North Atlantic biodiversity and has experienced a huge decline as sea temperatures have risen steadily since the 1980s. While the decline of the finmarchicus coincided with swelling numbers of a close relative, this other zooplankton species is less abundant and nutritious.

As the finmarchicus has suffered, so, too, has one of its main predators, the lesser sand eel. And it is this formerly superabundant fish that is the staple food of puffins in many areas of the Atlantic. At the root of the disruption to marine life are the hydra-headed effects of climate change.

Though no one disputes that an important shift is under way in the sea areas of northern Britain and beyond, not everyone agrees that the present puffin situation is a crisis. A leading British expert, Mike Harris, thinks it is premature to designate the bird an endangered species. There are still millions of puffins and, he says, “We need numbers to plummet before we even start to assume that things are terminal.”

Similarly, Bergur Olsen, one of the foremost biologists studying puffins in the Faroe Islands, believes that the talk of extinction is over the top. “The food situation may change and puffins may well adapt to new prey, and then their numbers will stabilise and perhaps increase,” he says.

***

On Staple Island, the extinction designation does appear bizarre. The Farne Island puffin population has increased by 8 per cent since 2008 and there are now 40,000 pairs. This success mirrors a wider stability among puffin colonies of the North and Irish Seas. The distinction in feeding ecology which may explain the birds’ varying fortunes is that, in the southern parts of the range, puffins can prey on sprats when sand eels are scarce. Sprats appear to have suffered none of the disruption that assails the other fish.

But Dunn says it is important to look at the whole picture. “It’s fantastic that puffins are doing well in places like the Farnes, but remember: Britain holds less than 10 per cent of the world total. Also, the declines that have beset puffins in Shetland and St Kilda are even worse for other seabirds.”

The numbers of a silver-winged gull called the kittiwake have fallen by 90 per cent in Shetland and St Kilda since 2000 and by 80 per cent in the Orkneys in just ten years. Shetland’s guillemot numbers have also halved, and the shag, a relative of the cormorant, has experienced falls of over 80 per cent on many islands since the 1970s – 98 per cent, on Foula. Most troubling is the fate of the Arctic skua, which feeds mainly on fish it steals from other seabirds and is reliant on their successes. Its declines are so severe that Dunn fears its eventual loss as a breeding species in Britain.

While there is disagreement about what to call the puffin predicament, there is unanimity on one issue: much of the data that informs the discussion in Britain is out of date. All of these seabirds, which are of global importance, have been monitored decade by decade since the 1970s. Yet the most recent big audit of our cliffs and offshore islands was concluded in 2000. The full census data is now 16 years old. The organisation that underwrites this work is the Joint Nature Conservation Committee; it is sponsored by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, which has suffered deep budget cuts since the 2008 financial crisis. There is no certainty that another comprehensive census will be mounted any time soon.

“Much is made on wildlife television of how special these islands are for wildlife and how much we care about it,” Dunn says. “In the case of our seabirds, one of those claims is indisputably true. Britain holds populations of some species that are of worldwide significance. But if we lack even basic information on those birds and how they’re faring, especially at a time when our seas are in such flux, what message does that send about how much this country cares? And how can we ever act effectively?”

The plight of the puffin is shedding light on the fortunes of our marine wildlife generally and the shifting condition of our oceans as a result of rising carbon-dioxide levels. Now, puffin politics is also starting to show
this government’s indifference to nature.

This article first appeared in the 28 July 2016 issue of the New Statesman, Summer Double Issue