Global Issues
Lies, damned lies and terrorists
Published 21 May 2007
Most low-intensity attacks against businesses and governments are carried out by terrorists who have nothing to do with Islam
We take it for granted that the terrorists stalking Europe are all Muslims. Hardly surprising, given that major terrorist atrocities in Europe from the Madrid bombings to the 7 July attacks were carried out by young Muslim men. Add daily headlines of "Muslim threats", routine revelations of "terrorist plots" foiled or around the corner, and it all begins to appear a self-evident truth. But self-evident truths, I know from experience, often turn out to be false under cursory scrutiny.
These are facts. In 2006, there were 498 incidents described as "terrorist attacks" across the European Union. Exactly 424 of these attacks were carried out by "separatist terrorists" such as the Basque group Eta, operating in Spain and France, and were limited to the Basque region and Corsica. Eta itself was responsible for 136 of these. Left-wing and anarchist groups, active in Germany, Greece, Italy and Spain, carried out 55 attacks. The vast majority of these resulted in lim ited material damage and were not designed to kill. Only one, carried out by Eta in Madrid, was deadly, producing two fatalities.
Where do Muslim terrorists fit in all this? The Muslim extremists were responsible for a single attack in Germany. On 31 July, two suitcases packed with explosive devices were placed on board regional trains in the Cologne area. The devices failed to detonate. Two Lebanese nationals were subsequently arrested and charged. The suspects claimed to have been motivated by the Danish cartoons affair. In addition, there were two planned attacks, one in Denmark and the other in Britain, both of which were allegedly foiled. They do not feature in the 498 total.
These statistics come from the EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT) 2007, published by no less a reliable source than the European Police Office, or Europol. Terrorism, says the report, is not new to Europe, but its context has changed. It has two new features: it is essentially transnational and it is characterised by "externality" - that is, actions taken by one country have implications for other countries. For example, security measures taken by one country may divert a terrorist attack to another.
Apart from what it calls "Islamist terrorism", the report identifies two other types of terrorists: "ethno-nationalists and separatist groups", such as Eta and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), and left-wing terror groups such as Greece's Revolutionary Struggle.
While Muslim terrorists get all the press and the attention, the vast majority of low-intensity attacks against businesses and governments, as the figures show, are actually carried out by terrorists who have nothing to do with Islam. Islam, however, features largely when it comes to arrests. Seven hundred and six individuals in total were arrested last year on suspicion of terrorism-related activities in the EU. Of these, 257 were clearly Muslim. But to these we must also add 156 British arrests, because Britain, says the report, did not provide details regarding arrested suspects due to ongoing trials. So we have 413 Muslims - well over half the total - arrested throughout Europe on terrorism charges.
Which brings us back to perceptions and what we take for granted. The Europol report makes it clear that Muslims are responsible for very little terrorism in Europe, but they are the group most likely to be arrested on suspicion of terrorism. In Britain, a long beard or a headscarf spells terrorist. In France and Spain, being Moroccan or Tunisian or Algerian is enough for you to be classified as a terrorist. In Germany and Holland, speaking Turkish is equivalent to declaring terrorist intentions.
The scale of our fears never works by the numbers, and the numbers can never be an argument for complacency. Yet there is something instructive in being constantly reminded of these figures, which have remained consistent over the years. This is not a case of seeking to prove anything with damned lies and statistics; on the contrary, the numbers should tell us that we are highly selective with our fears. The best analogy I can give is the weather. When it is extremely cold, we express ourselves in Celsius: "It's going to be -3 tonight." But when we have a hot spell, we rush back to the alarmism of Fahrenheit: "Ninety-five! What a scorcher!"
The reality we need to figure out is how far our selective fears do the terrorists' work for them. When we create draconian, illiberal defences on the presumption of a perceived threat, we are also terrorising the undifferentiated mass of European citizens who are Muslim and have legitimate fears of being demonised, marginalised and deemed guilty.
What the numbers tell us is that the hardest thing to achieve is a risk assessment of imponderables and unknowns. It is a great deal easier to contrive self-fulfilling prophesies.
And that is why we need to be more careful in determining whether we will fear in Celsius or in Fahrenheit.
The full Europol report can be obtained from http://www.europol.europa.eu/publications/TESAT/ TESAT2007.pdf
See also "Bloody Terrorists: terrorism in context"
Post this article to
We want to encourage people to comment on our content and to exchange views with other readers and hope this will be done on a courteous basis. However, if you encounter posts which are offensive please let us know by emailing comments@newstatesman.co.uk and we will take swift action where necessary.
