New Statesman General Election Weblog

While we wait for the final outcome of the election, here are some comments that portray how people are feeling in Victoria station:

“I voted Labour. We’ve got to trust our politicians and recognize what they do. I think the Iraq war will have positive outcome for both countries in the long run,” Hardial Singh said.

“I can’t tell you who I voted for, but hope for a change,” Alison Caring.

“Didn’t vote at all. I could not make up my mind for any candidate. I felt that their proposals were very similar,” Frank D.

“Voted for Lib Dem. Labour taking us to war was unreasonable and as a student, I think their education policies are extremely unfair for those who come from low income families,” Cecilia Kort.

“I think Labour is the best for us. The UK will be better off if it stands closer to the US. Blair’s got to finish what he started and a change of party could be chaotic,” Henry Haston.

Two observations from my journey home from a strictly apolitical night in the pub:

1) The first edition of The Sun is splashing with a picture of Tony, Cherie, and their two eldest sons after voting, under the caption, “Dad cert”.
Tempting fate, perhaps?

2) The Tory campaign seems to have had more effect on the language of public debate than I’d suspected. First Unison stole the “Are you thinking what we’re thinking” posters to campaign against the party. Now a London based solicitors firm has jumped on the bandwagon: in the familiar black scrawl, a poster on the Northern line reads, “It’s time to impose limits on a load of old codswallop.” What are they offering? Immigration advice, naturally.

The office is filling up now. Editorial - editors, sub-editors, art department and journalists - are all now in, and there’s a small crowd around the TV. I’ve just watched Sunderland North called; apparently, according to the BBC commentator, ‘Sunderland are really enjoying their moment in the spotlight right now‘. Talk about filling dead air; I predict that we will be in for a great deal more commentary as incisive as this.

Below: Nick Cohen and John Kampfner (political editor) in conversation; BBC1 on the TV.

We tried this simple test in the pub and many of us struggled, see how you do.

Without using Google, or any other reference material, name a Labour 2005 election policy.

A sneak preview of a photo essay by Nick Danziger from tomorrow’s New Statesman, on the campaign trail with Oona King, George Galloway and Oliver Letwin.
Take a look here.

I’ve just been speaking to Simon Wright who is fighting for Labour against IDS in Chingford. The counting has yet to start but Simon says that the mood is relaxed. Standing for the first time as a candidate for parliament he feels he’s had the best possible candidate to run against. The result is expected any time from 12.30 - 2pm. We shall be calling him a bit later to see how he does.

Radio 4 has just annoucned a re-count in Hove, as predicted would happen by the Brighton Blogger.
We shall keep you informed. . .

The bus stop has been moved, the traffic light rigging has worked and the counting and tallying is over in Sunderland South. Through the magic (or so it seems from the BBC commentry) of a C.O.M.P.U.T.E.R, a piece of paper has been printed out and . . .
Labour
has won the first seat of the night.

If, as seems to be a racing certainty, Tony Blair is safely back at No 10 tomorrow and announces his new Cabinet it seems almost as certain that a refurbished David Blunkett will be back in office. We have been warned by the man himself what he thinks about those amongst us whom he calls ‘the disaffected.’ He seems to mean everybody who once supported Labour but who have been upset enough, whether by Iraq or by other things, to cast their votes elsewhere in today’s election. This, we all thought, was our democratic right. But not so, according to Blunkett. As he told ‘The Independent’: ‘If the disaffected in the electorate end up with such a small majority that the disaffected in Parliament can rule, then it’s the disaffected per se in the electorate and Parliament that run the show. That is not good for democracy.’

Blunkett used to talk about ‘disaffected pupils’ when he was at Education - but he has extended his concern to us, the electorate. The Concise Oxford Dictionary has it that ‘disaffected’ means ‘disloyal, especially to one’s superiors.’ Bertoldt Brecht once wrote of an East German Communist Party leader who stated after an uprising that ‘the people had forfeited the confidence of the government and could win it back only by redoubled efforts.’ Would it not, asked Brecht, be easier in that case for the government to dissolve the people and elect another?

Nice sunny day beside the seaside, with three interesting races going on, here is a quick rundown of each:

Hove
Conservative target number 30, and a photo finish between Labour and Conservatives. Tony Blair, David Blunkett and John Prescott have all been here within the last 5 days, trying to secure the Labour base.
While Hove is no longer just tea rooms and retired colonels, having absorbed young Brightonians seeking cheaper houses, it does have a strong Conservative base. The suburbs in particular have more in common with neighbouring Conservative seats in Arundel (’disgraced’ Howard Flight’s old seat) and Shoreham, than it does with Brighton.

The sitting Labour MP and Blairite junior defence minister, Ivor Caplin, has stepped down and former BBC news producer Celia Barlow is the Labour candidate. However, there is strong competition from the Tories, with Nicholas Boles - a young, handsome, gay Newsnight regular, who as well as being a wealthy businessman is also the director of a Tory think tank. You only have to read the fellating he gets from Matthew Parris in the Times to see their are bright hopes for young Nicholas.

The LibDems are looking to firm up their base in the Brunswick area, but signficant gains are not expected. Some Green and Respect support from students, but not significant enough to cause an upset.

My prediction: Neck and neck - recounts til dawn. One to watch out for, as if all goes to predictions, if Hove goes Tory, then Michael Howard has enough seats (200), to be safe from a leadership challenge.

Brighton Pavilion
Not a key marginal, but could be interesting with the strongest Green presence in the country. Incumbent Labour MP, David Lepper, is up against a solid but static Conservative vote in the wealthier northern suburbs, but the big threat comes from the Green party courting a very strong anti-war vote.

Keith Taylor, the Green candidate, is also the national Green party leader, and ever-present thorn in Labour’s side in the local council. Previous Green results have been below 10% in general elections, but they picked up a significant protest vote at recent local and European elections. It is very unlikely they will win here, but could find themselves in a strong third place. The Greens have local dominance in the city centre and the Hanover area, filled with students and Guardian-reading muesli types, all wanting to stick it to the man.

The LibDems. however, are curiously weak in what should be an ideal seat for them.

My prediction: Labour hold with majority slashed by Green protest votes, but not quite enough to let the Conservatives through the middle.

Brighton Kemptown
One of the biggest gay populations outside of London, next to one of the most deprived areas in the South East, with some very Conservative towns to the East.

A real mixed bag, this one. Proof that there is no such thing as ‘the gay vote’, although it is fiercely courted, and the LGBT population is sizeable and vocal enough to make a real impact. Des Turner is the Labour incumbent, who voted against the war, and has strong ties to the gay community and a reasonable base in the Whitehawk and Moulsecoomb areas, which have benefitted from millions in Neighbourhood Renewal money. He also has support in the affluent Labour stronghold of Queens Park.

Conservatives have a strong base out of town, with Woodingdean and Rottingdean firmly Tory, and often even further to the right.

LibDems have put up a white witch, who is also the Mayor of Telscombe Cliffs. Whoever said they were not a serious party of government…

Greens have put up Simon Williams, a young local councillor, who will undoubtedly pick up both gay and anti-war votes.

My predicton: Labour hold, with a reduced majority, but no spectacular leaps from any opponents.

A Labour party member has just reported in that things are looking incredibly tight from Oona King over in Bethnal Green and Bow. She is facing tought opposition from both George Galloway and a majority of Muslim voters who are very angry both with her and Labour. Voter turn out has been good so far but whether this benefits Oona we will have to wait and see.

You may wonder what it’s like to work in a political magazine on election night; having never done “one of these” before, I certainly do. We’ll be updating the blog during the evening with a little insight as to how things are going in the office. To kick off, this is the online department right now, before anything has really kicked off (Kathryn Corrick on the left, myself on the right). In the background is something we won’t be seeing for quite a while - daylight.

Over in editorial, no-one’s even in yet:

I’m sure things will get a bit busier (and darker) as the night goes on.

Election morning in America, and people are excited. Calendars have long been marked. Parties have been organised. Festivals are underway. There is even talk of roasting whole animals, in the street. For sure, Cinco de Mayo - the Mexican festival of independence - is a big deal on this side of the pond.

The British Election, on the other hand, is passing largely unremarked. You’d be forgiven for thinking that most Americans ignore any politics outside their own country. And you’d be right. But later on tonight Cinco de Mayo makes way for May the Fifth in at least one corner of the eastern seaboard. At 6pm some 200-odd people, as 200 people – certainly odd in the sense of being mostly forlorn ex-pat brits seeking election related conversation and a glimpse of the swingometer, gather in Harvard’s John F Kennedy School of Government to watch Peter Snow et al on the big screen. If anything interesting happens – animal roasting apart – I’ll post it here.

Maps and live results
The Guardian
Sky (requires Flash)
The Scotsman (Scottish results only, requires Flash)
The Times

Timings
When constituencies are due to declare

Offerings from the BBC
Peter Snow’s famous Swingometer
Seat calculator
Poll tracker

Live broadcasting
Radio 4 - general election coverage begins at 10pm

Welcome to the New Statesman General Election Weblog. Over the next 24 hours we’ll be posting updates and comments from a variety of contributors.