How the Celtic Tiger was tamed

As Ireland heads to the polls, it expects not change but more of the same.

If all the talk of treason in Dublin were in earnest, there would be nooses dang­ling from the Georgian lamp posts around the Dail instead of general election posters. There are no lynch mobs along the banks of the Liffey and the worst financial crisis in southern Ireland since the founding of the Free State doesn't seem to be bringing about the kind of large-scale realignment that the Irish left has been longing for.

Forget "Guns'n'Roses", as a Sinn Fein-Labour coalition was nicknamed when a single rogue opinion poll suggested such a mould-breaking possibility. For all his gung-ho rhetoric about triumphing over the two big tribal parties, the Labour leader, Eamon Gilmore, now has a struggle on his hands to play any role in the next government. Instead of making history, the most he can hope for is to become a Hibernian version of the Liberal Democrat leader-turned-Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg - and he might be denied even that dubious achievement if a resurgent Fine Gael can muster a majority with the aid of independents.

Although Gilmore has accused the outgoing Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, of "economic treason", the Labour leader is unlikely to pursue retribution if he becomes Tanaiste (deputy Taio­seach). A politically connected golden circle of investors seems always to be protected, even in times of socio-economic carnage. Most people in Ireland can't imagine this ever changing. Meanwhile, mass emigration is acting as a safety valve for social unrest. A new exodus from the country is one of the very few reasons that the number on the dole has yet to reach half a million.

Following the €85bn EU/IMF bailout, many have become exercised about the issue of economic sovereignty. The most that Fine Gael's leader, Enda Kenny, promises is that, if he becomes Taoiseach on 25 February, he will try to negotiate a less onerous interest rate with the European Central Bank (ECB). But its president, Jean-Claude Trichet, has already publicly slapped him down for this. Alan Dukes, a former Fine Gael leader who is now chairman of Anglo Irish Bank, has added to Kenny's woes by indicating that the country's banking system will need a further €15bn on top of the €35bn already earmarked.

If the Irish Labour Party becomes the junior partner in a Fine Gael-led coalition that spends even more public money while implementing savage cuts in front-line services and social welfare payments at the behest of the ECB and the IMF, it will not be able to avoid becoming as loathed as Britain's Lib Dems. And if they fall into the same trap, Dublin's social democrats could end up following the Green Party, which fears electoral annihilation as punishment for propping up the outgoing Fianna Fail-led government. Even ardent ecologists find it hard to lament that prospect. Despite securing two of the ministerial portfolios that they most coveted - energy and environment - the Greens failed to tackle a national betrayal that straddles both these crucial spheres.

The great giveaway

The Corrib gas controversy concerns plans by Shell, Vermilion Energy and Statoil to exploit the hydrocarbon reserves off the Irish coast, whose total value is estimated by the government to be €420bn. It involves not just a rejection of local public safety concerns but also a sell-off of the nation's natural resources.

When Eamon Ryan first entered the Dail, the charismatic young politician, once hailed as the great Green hope, campaigned for the Rossport Five, a determined group of local demonstrators who were prepared to go to prison to halt the construction of a gas pipeline through their village in County Mayo. When Ryan became Ireland's energy minister, however, he seemed to forget this pledge of solidarity and failed to use his influence to prevent planning permission from being granted for an onshore, rather than offshore, refinery.

Furthermore, over the coming decades, as the Corrib gas starts to thunder through the pipe, the almost insolvent Irish state will not receive a single cent in royalties. And when the likes of Shell do eventually declare any profits, they will be taxed at just 25 per cent, compared to the international average of 68 per cent imposed by energy-producing countries.

In 1987, Ireland's then minister for energy, Ray Burke, granted multinational corporations terms and conditions that few other countries would have stood for - including the abolition of royalties - purportedly to encourage gas exploration. Dick Spring, who was then Lab-our leader, is said to have denounced Burke's deal as "an act of economic treason". Burke was later jailed for offences relating to tax evasion. Little attempt has been made by any subsequent government to rescind his great gas and oil giveaway.

To cap it all, it emerged recently that a British undercover agent had been given free rein by the Irish police to infiltrate the Corrib protest groups. Mark Kennedy of the Metropolitan Police posed as an eco-warrior called Mark Stone while on the payroll of the UK National Public Order Intelligence Unit; he has claimed that he was commissioned in Dublin to do so. It seems that, when it comes to safeguarding the interests of international capital, Ireland's national sovereignty can be breached not just by the IMF but also by the British police and equally unaccountable elements within the Irish state.

Rob Brown is senior lecturer in journalism at Independent College Dublin

This article first appeared in the 21 February 2011 issue of the New Statesman, The offshore City

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The New Times: Brexit, globalisation, the crisis in Labour and the future of the left

With essays by David Miliband, Paul Mason, John Harris, Lisa Nandy, Vince Cable and more.

Once again the “new times” are associated with the ascendancy of the right. The financial crash of 2007-2008 – and the Great Recession and sovereign debt crises that were a consequence of it – were meant to have marked the end of an era of runaway “turbocapitalism”. It never came close to happening. The crash was a crisis of capitalism but not the crisis of capitalism. As Lenin observed, there is “no such thing as an absolutely hopeless situation” for capitalism, and so we discovered again. Instead, the greatest burden of the period of fiscal retrenchment that followed the crash was carried by the poorest in society, those most directly affected by austerity, and this in turn has contributed to a deepening distrust of elites and a wider crisis of governance.

Where are we now and in which direction are we heading?

Some of the contributors to this special issue believe that we have reached the end of the “neoliberal” era. I am more sceptical. In any event, the end of neoliberalism, however you define it, will not lead to a social-democratic revival: it looks as if, in many Western countries, we are entering an age in which centre-left parties cannot form ruling majorities, having leaked support to nationalists, populists and more radical alternatives.

Certainly the British Labour Party, riven by a war between its parliamentary representatives and much of its membership, is in a critical condition. At the same time, Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership has inspired a remarkable re-engagement with left-wing politics, even as his party slumps in the polls. His own views may seem frozen in time, but hundreds of thousands of people, many of them young graduates, have responded to his anti-austerity rhetoric, his candour and his shambolic, unspun style.

The EU referendum, in which as much as one-third of Labour supporters voted for Brexit, exposed another chasm in Labour – this time between educated metropolitan liberals and the more socially conservative white working class on whose loyalty the party has long depended. This no longer looks like a viable election-winning coalition, especially after the collapse of Labour in Scotland and the concomitant rise of nationalism in England.

In Marxism Today’s “New Times” issue of October 1988, Stuart Hall wrote: “The left seems not just displaced by Thatcherism, but disabled, flattened, becalmed by the very prospect of change; afraid of rooting itself in ‘the new’ and unable to make the leap of imagination required to engage the future.” Something similar could be said of the left today as it confronts Brexit, the disunities within the United Kingdom, and, in Theresa May, a prime minister who has indicated that she might be prepared to break with the orthodoxies of the past three decades.

The Labour leadership contest between Corbyn and Owen Smith was largely an exercise in nostalgia, both candidates seeking to revive policies that defined an era of mass production and working-class solidarity when Labour was strong. On matters such as immigration, digital disruption, the new gig economy or the power of networks, they had little to say. They proposed a politics of opposition – against austerity, against grammar schools. But what were they for? Neither man seemed capable of embracing the “leading edge of change” or of making the imaginative leap necessary to engage the future.

So is there a politics of the left that will allow us to ride with the currents of these turbulent “new times” and thus shape rather than be flattened by them? Over the next 34 pages 18 writers, offering many perspectives, attempt to answer this and related questions as they analyse the forces shaping a world in which power is shifting to the East, wars rage unchecked in the Middle East, refugees drown en masse in the Mediterranean, technology is outstripping our capacity to understand it, and globalisation begins to fragment.

— Jason Cowley, Editor 

Tom Kibasi on what the left fails to see

Philip Collins on why it's time for Labour to end its crisis

John Harris on why Labour is losing its heartland

Lisa Nandy on how Labour has been halted and hollowed out

David Runciman on networks and the digital revolution

John Gray on why the right, not the left, has grasped the new times

Mariana Mazzucato on why it's time for progressives to rethink capitalism

Robert Ford on why the left must reckon with the anger of those left behind

Ros Wynne-Jones on the people who need a Labour government most

Gary Gerstle on Corbyn, Sanders and the populist surge

Nick Pearce on why the left is haunted by the ghosts of the 1930s

Paul Mason on why the left must be ready to cause a commotion

Neal Lawson on what the new, 21st-century left needs now

Charles Leadbeater explains why we are all existentialists now

John Bew mourns the lost left

Marc Stears on why democracy is a long, hard, slow business

Vince Cable on how a financial crisis empowered the right

David Miliband on why the left needs to move forward, not back

This article first appeared in the 22 September 2016 issue of the New Statesman, The New Times