Taken from The New Statesman 1 August 1914 The outbreak of the Great War in August 1914 was badly timed for this magazine’s production schedules. Prompted by Austria’s ultimatum to Serbia following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand on 28 June 1914, the New Statesman’s Berlin correspondent sent this anonymous despatch. He wrongly thought that Germany was working to prevent a war. By the time his piece was being read, hostilities had begun. Selected by Robert Taylor

Berlin, 28 July

For the last three days Berlin has been the scene of excited demonstrations. Crowds have paraded “Unter den Linden” and the other streets of the centre, have sung the “Wacht am Rhein” and other patriotic songs, have cried “Hoch Osterreich!” and “Nieder mit den Serben!” to their hearts’ content. But these enthusiastic processions have been composed for the most part of youths and schoolboys, happy to be allowed for once to demonstrate undisturbed.

The adult men have stood aside and calculated anxiously the chances of a general European war. It is all very well for the Austrians to chastise Serbia; the whole of Germany, even the Socialists, are with them in demanding reparation for what now appears to have been official complicity in the crime of Sarajevo. But it is a very different matter if for Sebvia’s misdeeds Germany has to enter into a war on two fronts against Russia and France, to say nothing of the possibility of a naval war with England. Despite the demonstrations in Berlin and other cities, despite the exaggerated enthusiasm of the press, by far the greater number of Germans agree at the bottom of their hearts with the Socialist journals and, strangely enough, with the two Chauvinist organs (Die Post and the Rheinisch-Westphalische Zeitung) which from the very beginning of the crisis have condemned the impossibilist tone of the Austrian Note [ultimatum], which left no alternative for Serbia but rejection.

The Austrian case is so good, its charges against Serbia so well grounded, that a slightly more moderate tone would have left no country, not even Russia, with the slightest ground for interference. As it is, it would almost seem as if Austria had determined to go “Va blanc” without any regard whatever for European peace. “Better an end with horrors than a horror without end” (to quote a saying which has appeared here in most leading articles during the last few days) appears to have been the motto at the back of the Austrian mind. Rather the Armageddon than that the steady undermining of the Austrian Empire should continue. From the Austrian standpoint there is much to say for this policy, but the German worker, the German businessman, and even the German soldier, despite the strong pro-Austrian sympathies of all, have at the bottom a very different view. Openly, of course, Austria must be supported through thick and thin. But below the surface one hears complaints on every hand that Germany should have been forced on to the brink of war through this policy of despair, that fate should have allowed Austria to strike this “blow in Serbia’s face” with the weapons which Germany has forged for its own defence. And this is the central point of the whole situation. No one can think for a moment that Austria would have taken its recent step without the full conviction that German arms were behind it. And Germany feels itself tricked. Without the least desire for war, the country finds itself faced with the imminent possibility of Weltkrieg, solely because Austria has been pleased to play the part of the strong man.

Nothing more is needed to prove the truth of this view than the attitude of the German Government itself. Openly, of course, it, too, announces its unswerving loyalty to Austria; and it is quite sincere in its professions. But behind the scenes it has been working with feverish energy not only to localise the conflict but to moderate Austria’s own action. To the world it says, in the words of the semi-official Kölnische Zeitung, “Hands off!” To Austria it is making it very clear that last week’s ultimatum was a mistake, the consequences of which must be minimised in every way that is still possible. The story, spread in several French and at least one English paper, that Germany had been consulted as to the text of the Austrian Note before its presentation has been at once denied, and an equally sharp démenti has been given to the rumour that the German Ambassador in Paris has adopted a threatening tone towards France. What is really happening is that French and German diplomacy are working more closely together than they have done for many generations to prevent an extension of the quarrel. “For God’s sake, no war with France over Serbia!” are the words put recently in the mouth of an important German statesman. They are probably apocryphal, but they express truly enough the official standpoint.

This attitude deserves the careful consideration of those who are never weary of attributing to Germany warlike ambitions on every occasion. For seldom, if ever, for a generation past has there been a better opportunity for war, if Germany really wanted it. Austria, always hitherto the weak point, is presumably ready. Germany itself has already carried out the increases in its army sanctioned in last year’s great Army Law. And its opponents? Russia, as is well known, is planning a great increase and reorganisation of its army, which is to be ready by 1916. Up to now all is in preparation, and, as far as can be discovered, little has been done. France, as the result of the recent army exposures, has lost, for the time being, a great part of the confidence which had grown up again there during the last few years. But the work of reorganisation is being carried on in the French army with feverish haste, and in a short time perhaps the present weaknesses will be made good. England in the present crisis has less occasion than at any other time in recent years to intervene, and an attack on Germany in the interests of Russia’s position in the Balkans would be the least popular action that could be imagined. Altogether it might seem that, if the great continental war which so many look on as inevitable is to come at all, it would come now for Germany under the most favourable possible circumstances.

And yet what is happening? Instead of seizing its opportunity, instead of choosing the favourable moment, Germany has been doing all it possibly can to still the flames. Far from encouraging Austria, it would seem to be letting its ally know very clearly that no possibility of limiting the area of conflict must be let slip. Should war come, there is no doubt whatever that Germany will be found at Austria’s side. But it will be a war not of Germany’s choosing, and this in the present time of crisis should be remembered to its credit. During the Balkan crisis of last year, when the situation was a very different one and the whole advantage seemed to be on the other side, it was mainly due to the action of England that peace was preserved. On that occasion we showed clearly that we had no desire to seize the opportunity for the attack on Germany for which some politicians here supposed us to be waiting. At the present moment Germany is showing equally clearly that it, too, is far from cherishing the schemes of conquest which the Chauvinists of Great Britain and of other nations have attributed to it. If the Austro-Serbian crisis does nothing else, it will have established this important fact.

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