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Greens and blues

Whatever the outcome at Copenhagen, the real work will be done in Europe, where the Tories look incr

If the UN summit on climate change in Copenhagen ends with an agreement on legally binding targets (which it almost certainly won't), the hard work of implementation would still need to be done. Targets have value - they focus political, business and media attention - but they don't automatically lead to delivery.

Look at Kyoto. The fairest overall assessment of it is that the developed countries which ratified the protocol have allowed their emissions to increase by 9.1 per cent, while the US allowed its emissions to increase by 14.4 per cent. Kyoto can plausibly be said to have reduced non-US, developed-country emissions by about 5 per cent from what they would have been without the deal, which is better than nothing. But it's not nearly enough.

The EU's target of a 20 per cent reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions by 2020, though still not enough, is at least enforceable. And the EU has significant policy levers - regulatory powers and money to invest in clean energy. So, even though Copenhagen is important, the EU Council of Ministers is the crucial forum for UK pol­iticians wanting to control climate change.

The EU has led international negotiations on climate. Its commitment to reduce emissions is not dependent on what anyone else does. Its target to get 20 per cent of all energy from renewables by 2020 is achievable and it has the money to help construct the more extensive and efficient infrastructure needed, including grids across the North Sea and the Mediterranean. It has also said that it will have up to 12 large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) plants operational by 2015. Although this is just a target and the words "up to" are classic fudge, the Commission has already allocated more than €1bn (£910m) to CCS projects under the European Economic Recovery Plan and has selected the projects to receive the money, which national governments seem to find hard to do.

There is no significant disagreement between the UK's main political parties about climate change, but there certainly is disagreement over the EU. New Labour has generally been pro-EU; the Liberal Democrats are very pro, but the Conservatives remain divided (though David Cameron's sensible decision not to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty failed to produce the ructions that some expected, or hoped for). Cameron and the shadow energy secretary, Greg Clark, are serious about controlling climate change. But the damage done to relations with other centre-right parties by the Tories leaving the European People's Party (EPP) may be a significant obstacle.

Trouble on the right

The Conservatives have good policies on the low-carbon transition. Yet I know from my own experience that it is considerably less difficult to adopt good policies in opposition than it is to achieve good outcomes in government.

From 1992-94, I was adviser to the then shadow environment secretary, Chris Smith, and secretary of the Labour policy commission on the environment. This produced In Trust for Tomorrow, which proposed targets to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent by 2010 and to generate 10 per cent of electricity from renewables in 2010. Smith negotiated the considerable internal discussion about this with skill and determination.

Then, from 1997-99, I was adviser to the environment minister, Michael Meacher. He and John Prescott played an important role in the Kyoto negotiations and tried hard to make our economy less climate-damaging. The changes in performance since 1997, however, have been very disappointing. The UK will meet its Kyoto target, due largely to the "dash for gas" that Labour inherited from the Tories. In office, ministers have had to deal not only with Labour Party politics, but also with interdepartmental Whitehall politics. Too often, these have proved insuperable barriers. The 2010 targets for carbon dioxide and renewables will both be missed. The UK gets a lower proportion of its energy from renewables than any EU country except Luxembourg and Malta.

I am no longer a member of a political party, and so do not have inside knowledge of politics today. But it is worrying that Tory ministers trying to implement their climate plans would have to deal not only with internal party and Whitehall politics, but also with difficult relations with other centre-right parties. Cameron, William Hague and George Osborne have all said that the EU should focus on global issues such as climate change. Yet, by leaving the EPP, the Tories have made it more difficult for the party to achieve this. For instance, a central part of developing clean energy sources is to get the EU emissions trading scheme working better. The scheme has had little impact so far because the price of carbon is unpredictable and too low; the best way to improve it would be to set a floor price. This could be done formally through the EU, but that would take many years. It could be created instead through a bilateral deal between the UK and German governments, which have enough allowances in effect to guarantee a floor price. But the Tories have reduced their influence with Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union.

The Conservatives accept that climate protection cannot be left to the market. They have called for an Emissions Performance Standard (EPS) to set a maximum pollution level from any power plant. This was an excellent proposal, as Ed Miliband, the Climate Change Secretary, recognised when he said that an EPS could act as a "safety net" in case CCS is not as effective as hoped. The UK could introduce an EPS on its own, but it would be much more effective if introduced across the EU.

Let us not lose faith

The EU's target to improve energy efficiency by 20 per cent by 2020 is merely an aspiration at present. The Commission is now saying that the target should be made binding, with predictable hostility from national governments. Allowing decisions to be made by the right tier of government is important, but not as important as taking the right decisions.

However, one way to get one tier to do certain things is to get another tier firmly committed. If Copenhagen and the follow-up negotiations in 2010 can secure legally binding commitments, it will concentrate minds. Several EU governments have been more willing to accept EU directives because they have a legally binding Kyoto target. The EU itself has said that if there were a strong international agreement, its reduction target would be 30 per cent, not 20.

So let us not lose faith entirely in Copenhagen. It is good that Gordon Brown and other world leaders are going to the summit (although, for Brown to be credible, he must put serious money into the low-carbon transition in the pre-Budget report). The real challenge, however, will come after Copenhagen. For it to be met, whoever forms the next UK government must engage extensively, seriously and constructively with Europe.

Stephen Tindale is a climate and energy consultant and co-founder of Climate Answers

 

Take a walk on the dark side

In June, David Cameron pulled his party out of the centre-right European People's Party (EPP). He has argued that leaving the EPP will be good for European democracy, but the Tories' departure has distanced them from old conservative allies in Europe. In 2006, Cameron signed a joint declaration to form a new partnership, the European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR), chaired by Michal Kaminski.

The Conservative leader has pointed to the ECR's anti-federalist stance in attempting to justify his party's new alliance in the European Parliament, but among the politicians in the group are some who hold sexist, homophobic and racist views. Kaminski has come under scrutiny in recent months for his previous membership of the National Revival of Poland party, which has been accused of neo-Nazism.

The Tories may now lose influence in Europe in important settings such as the environment, public health and food safety committee (vice-chaired by Boguslaw Sonik, a member of the EPP), the committee on industry, research and energy, chaired by an EPP member, and the economic and monetary affairs committee, which has two EPP vice-chairmen.

The Conservatives are the largest party in the new parliamentary grouping, making up 25 of the ECR's 54 members. Its two other main partners are Poland's Law and Justice party and the Czech Republic's Civic Democratic Party.

James Burgess

 

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This article first appeared in the 07 December 2009 issue of the New Statesman, Boy George

Ralph Steadman for the New Statesman.
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Tim Farron: Theresa May is "the prisoner of the Ukip wing of her party"

The Liberal Democrat leader on his faith, Blairism and his plan to replace Labour as the opposition. 

This is Tim Farron’s seventh general election. His first was in 1992, when his Tory opponent was a 36-year-old called Ther­esa May. He was just 21 and they were both unsuccessful candidates in the Labour fortress of North-West Durham. He recalls talking “to a bunch of ex-miners who weren’t best pleased to see either of us, some kid Liberal and some Tory”. Now he sees his former and current opponent as “the prisoner of the Ukip wing of her party . . . I think it has rendered Ukip almost pointless – she is Ukip now.”

May was elected to parliament in 1997, but it took Farron until 2005 to join her. She leads the dominant Conservatives while he heads a party of only nine Liberal Democrat MPs. Still, their reversal of fortunes gives him hope. “After the 1992 election, every­one said there’s no way for a non-Tory government, and it turned out there was. So let’s not assume it’s a given there’s a Tory government [for ever].”

In April, I accompanied Farron to Manchester Gorton, in the lead-up to a by-election that was cancelled by May’s decision to call a snap election on 8 June. Still, the 46-year-old’s party has been in campaign mode for months; Lib Dems spoke of using last December’s Richmond Park by-election to test their messaging. It clearly had an effect: the incumbent Conservative, Zac Goldsmith, lost to their candidate, Sarah Olney.

Brexit, to which the Liberal Democrats are vehemently opposed, will be a dominant theme of the election. Their party membership has just exceeded 100,000, close to an all-time high, and they have enjoyed much success in council by-elections, with more to come in the local elections of 4 May.

However, any feel-good factor swiftly evaporated when Farron appeared on Channel 4 News on 18 April. He was asked by the co-presenter Cathy Newman whether or not he believes that homosexuality is a sin, a question that he answered obliquely in 2015 by saying that Christianity started with acknowledging that “we’re all sinners”.

This time, he told Newman, he was “not in the position to make theological announcements over the next six weeks . . . as a Liberal, I’m passionate about equality”.

The Channel 4 interview divided opinion. One Liberal politician told me that Farron’s stance was “completely intolerable”. Stephen Pollard, the influential editor of the Jewish Chronicle, described it as
“a very liberal position: he holds certain personal views but does not wish to legislate around them”. Jennie Rigg, the acting chair of LGBT+ Liberal Democrats, said it was “as plain as the nose on my face that Tim Farron is no homophobe”.

Farron declined the chance to clarify his views with us in a follow-up phone call, but told the BBC on 25 April: “I don’t believe that gay sex is a sin,” adding, “On reflection, it makes sense to actually answer this direct question since it’s become an issue.”

For his critics, Farron’s faith and politics are intertwined. He sees it differently, as he told Christian Today in 2015: “. . . the danger is sometimes that as a Christian in politics you think your job is to impose your morality on other people. It absolutely isn’t.”

Tim Farron joined the then Liberal Party at the age of 16 but didn’t become a Christian until he was 18. Between completing his A-levels in Lancashire and going to Newcastle University to read politics, he read the apologetics, a body of Christian writing that provides reasoned arguments for the gospel story. “I came to the conclusion that it was true,” he told me. “It wasn’t just a feel-good story.”

In speeches, Farron now takes on the mannerisms of a preacher, but he had a largely non-religious upbringing in Preston, Lancashire. “I don’t think I’d been to church once other than Christmas or the odd wedding,” he says. “I went once with my dad when I was 11, for all the good that did me.”

When we meet, it is Theresa May’s religion that is in the spotlight. She has condemned the National Trust for scrubbing the word “Easter” from its Easter egg hunt, a row it later emerged had been largely invented by the right-wing press in response to a press release from a religious-themed chocolate company.

“It’s worth observing there’s no mention of chocolate or bunny rabbits in the Bible,” Farron reminds me. “When people get cross about, in inverted commas, ‘us losing our Christian heritage’ they mean things which are safe and comfortable and nostalgic.” He pauses. “But the Christian message at Easter is shocking, actually, and very radical.”

British politics is tolerant of atheists (such as Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg) alongside those who, like David Cameron, are culturally Christian but whose faith is “a bit like the reception for Magic FM in the Chilterns: it sort of comes and goes”. But the reaction to Farron’s equivocation on homosexuality prompted many to wonder if a politician who talks openly about his faith is now seen as alarming. Nebulous wishes of peace and love at Christmas, yes; sincere discussions of the literal truth of the Resurrection? Hmm.

Tim Farron’s beliefs matter because he has a mission: to replace not only Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the opposition but Theresa May in Downing Street. Over lassis at the MyLahore curry house in Manchester, he tells me that Britain is facing two calamities. “One is Brexit, indeed hard Brexit . . . and the other is a Tory government for 25 years. We have to present a genuine, progressive alternative that can not only replace Labour as an opposition, it can replace the Tories as a government.” This is ambitious talk for a party with nine MPs. “I understand the ridicule that will be thrown at me for saying those things: but if you don’t want to run the country, why are you in politics?” He pauses. “That’s a question I would ask most people leading the Labour Party at present.”

What does he think of May, his one-time opponent in North-West Durham? “She strikes me as being very professional, very straightforward, somebody who is very conservative in every sense of the word, in her thought processes, her politics, in her style.” He recalls her 2002 conference speech in which she warned Tory activists: “Our base is too narrow and so, occasionally, are our sympathies. You know what some people call us: the nasty party.”

“In many ways, she was the trailblazer for Cameron in being a softer-focused Tory,” he says. “It now looks like she’s been trapped by the very people she was berating as the nasty party all those years ago. I like to think that isn’t really her. But that means she isn’t really in control of the Conservative Party.”

Voters, however, seem to disagree. In recent polls, support for the Conservatives has hovered between 40 and 50 per cent. Isn’t a progressive alliance the only way to stop her: Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru all working together to beat the Tories?

“Let’s be really blunt,” he says. “Had Jeremy Corbyn stood down for us in Richmond Park [where Labour stood Christian Wolmar], we would not have won. I could have written Zac Goldsmith’s leaflets for you: Corbyn-backed Liberal Democrats.

“I’m a pluralist,” he adds. “But any progressive alliance has got to be at least equal to the sum of its parts. At the moment, it would be less than the sum of its parts. The only way the Tories are losing their majority is us gaining seats in Hazel Grove –” he ticks them off with his fingers, “– in Cheadle, in the West Country and west London. There’s no chance of us gaining those seats if we have a kind of arrangement with the current Labour Party in its current form.”

What about the SNP? “Most sensible people would look at that SNP manifesto and agree with 99 per cent of it,” Farron says. “But it’s that one thing: they want to wreck the country! How can you do a deal with people who want to wreck the country?”

There’s no other alternative, he says. Someone needs to step up and offer “something that can appeal to progressive younger voters, pro-Europeans and, you know, moderate-thinking Middle England”. He wants to champion a market economy, strong public services, action on climate change, internationalism and free trade.

That sounds like Blairism. “I’m a liberal, and I don’t think Blair was a liberal,” he replies. “But I admire Blair because he was somebody who was able to win elections . . . Iraq aside, my criticisms of Blair are what he didn’t do, rather than what he did do.”

Turning around the Tory tide – let alone with just nine MPs, and from third place – is one hell of a job. But Farron takes heart from the Liberal Party in Canada, where Justin Trudeau did just that. “I’m not Trudeau,” he concedes, “He was better-looking, and his dad was prime minister.”

There is a reason for his optimism. “I use the analogy of being in a maze,” he says, “You can’t see a way out of it, for a progressive party to form a majority against the Tories. But in every maze, there is a way out. We just haven’t found it yet.” 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

This article first appeared in the 27 April 2017 issue of the New Statesman, Cool Britannia 20 Years On

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