A Green New Deal

A "war economy" social mobilisation harnessed, this time not towards fighting fascism, but towards h

If you thought a growing economy was bad, try living through a recession. Environmentalists routinely denounce the "mantra" of economic growth, pointing out - quite rationally and entirely correctly - that infinite growth on a finite planet does not make mathematical, let alone ecological, sense. But the idea of a no-growth, steady-state economy has always sounded like pie in the sky - and you have only to read the papers every day to be reminded why. The credit crunch and looming recession in the UK illustrate nicely how the economic system knows only two options: growth or collapse. During good times, it seems almost impossible to imagine how anything could ever go wrong. Hence the willingness of investors and banks to snap up mortgage-backed securities without worrying how "toxic" these might turn out to be. In bad times, the reverse is true.

It is tempting for environmentalists to welcome recessions: after all, if you believe that rampant consumerism is killing the planet, then a sudden decrease in consumption can only be a good thing. A falling property market means that the pressure to concrete over the countryside is lifted. With higher fuel costs, people drive less and buy smaller cars. My local allotments association, once rather neglected, now has a waiting list of several years. Talk of new car-share clubs abounds, and more and more people are breaking the driving habit and taking to the roads on their bikes.

What is particularly noteworthy about the present economic crisis is that it has not - so far, anyway - led to a drop in oil prices. With the world's largest oil-consuming country, the United States, in full-scale recession, and other western countries beginning to follow suit, the ensuing drop in demand for oil ought to lead to downward pressure on crude prices. That it has not produced such pressure - and the price per barrel continues to hover just below $150 - suggests that fears about long-term supply, often aired by the so-called "peak-oilers", are well founded.

Combined, the credit crunch and oil crunch have delivered a double shock to the world economy. And with climate change raising the risk of weather-related damage to crops, and so driving up food prices, one group of thinkers has begun to use the term "triple crunch" to describe the present situation.

This group, which launches a landmark report on 21 July calling for a "Green New Deal", consists of two former directors of Friends of the Earth, the Guardian's economics editor, Larry Elliott, the Green Party MEP Caroline Lucas and Andrew Simms of the New Economics Foundation, among other luminaries. The report is still under embargo at the time of writing, so I cannot delve into it too deeply, but what I find striking and novel about its content is the clear attempt to bridge the credibility gap between whimsical environmentalism and the harsh real world of everyday economics.

The Green New Deal Group is not talking about incremental changes, however. It is calling for nothing less than a return to pre-war Keynesianism - complete with big increases in public investment spending and much tighter controls on international finance - with a "war economy" social mobilisation harnessed, this time not towards fighting fascism, but towards heading off ecological crisis. What is novel is that this call is directed not just at stabilising the climate, but also at stabilising the economy - lower interest rates and higher government spending are aimed at ending the credit crunch as much as tackling the oil and climate crunches.

Indeed, everywhere you look, environmental thinkers are embracing the market. All the various greenhouse-gas-regulating frameworks under serious discussion depend crucially for their success on high carbon prices sending a signal through the market rather than through direct government regulation. The recent Time for Plan B report from the US-based Earth Policy Institute calls for 80 per cent cuts in carbon emissions by 2020 - but sees this, crucially, not as a belt-tightening sacrifice, but as an opportunity for renewed growth.

For example, to achieve Plan B's target of three million megawatts of new wind capacity in the next 12 years we'll have to put up 1.5 million turbines. That seems an unfeasibly large number, until you consider that 65 million cars are produced worldwide each year. Indeed, the report suggests, some of the turbines could be produced "on idled automotive assembly lines, reinvigorating manufacturing capacity and creating jobs".

Keynes would have been proud.

5 comments

gnuneo's picture

mark lynas: this is good news indeed.

greens for too long were attached to their own version of "daddy knows best", and would have happily regarded the majority of the population as idiots that need ordering around for their own benefit, rather than crucial democratic participants in the fight against the effects of Global Warming.

i hope this insight will inspire the green movement to become more democratic and participatory - the truth is on your side, use it to convince others, don't force others, and wherever possible the environmentalists should create democratic structures, such as in these new 'war companies' that would combat global warming.

taghioff.info's picture

When is the report off embargo, and where can it be downloaded when it is?

demmet's picture

But the world is getting cooler. We had 18 years of warming starting in 1980 leading to an artificially high point due to an abnormally strong El Nino. Since 1998 there has been no warming and 2008 looks as though it will be cooler than the 2001-2007 stasis. Se we have 17-18 years of warming and 11 years of cooling. Soon the temp may revert to mid-1980's levels and the world's ecosystems will respond to that cooling reversing many of the trends we have seen in the past ten years.

Global warming crisis - that's so 90's.

VC's picture

Mr Lynas....lol....shall we all join the Green Jackets?LOL I`ve already got you maked out as a NWO subwoofer!lol

Here we are at the end of the NWO globalization model. At best 4 years of ecomomic pain, based on the official MSM perspective. However, the pain is likely to last 10 years and some more, so the "New Green Deal" is really about managing a very unhappy public using a rallying call that "we are saving the planet".LOL God the corporations really do have the Greens by their "yellow roots"!!!LOL

""And with climate change rasing the risk of weather related damage to crops"....I suppose the cyclone which hit Burma was a natural event? LOL You have no idea about the NWO power to control the weather on a continental scale.LOL

Sure Mr Lynas, NWO anarchy is coming to a street near you very soon....the current oil price isn`t even in the human food chain yet....but do we hear the MSM reporting this? NO!!LOL

We are just at the start of a re-definition of human existence....you and the ring-in-nose led fodder, just don`t understand that global warming is just a popular vehicle from one human state to a New World Order state.....make sure your Green Jacket has stab/bullet protection.

Gordon returns from Japan and things are sooo bleak that his best line is "we must stop wasting food"!! LOL

""WAR ECONOMY"" = food rationing, fuel rationing and BIG BROTHER in your face 24/7.LOL Everyone will be encouraged to spy on each other and no doubt they will introduce ID cards/chips and this will come with travel restrictions. The airlines are already cutting services, even Ryanair are cuting sevices, but we don`t know the extent of this just yet. Current forecasts for oil are $200 pb. We are within a year of reaching the Great Depression and just think, Mr Lynas is a well oiled (pardon the pun) cog in the NWO system.

Collect your benefits by producing wind turbines....you will need to walk to work....sorry, you live so far away, the government is going to set up work camps...three weeks on, one week off....welcome to the IV Reich.LOL

BTW, I recommend that you watch David Icke`s Big Brother speech, just google, its brilliant!!!

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