This Budget may have been our part-time Chancellor’s last chance
By David Blanchflower Published 21 March 2012
After nearly two years in power, the coalition government has to take ownership of the economic mess it has created.
After nearly two years in power, the coalition government has to take ownership of the economic mess it has created. There has been virtually no growth over the past 15 months, which stands in direct contrast to the previous 15 months under Labour when, because of monetary and fiscal stimulus, growth was 31 times higher than under George Osborne (3.1 per cent against 0.1 per cent, respectively). The latest data release shows that from June 2010 to December 2011, public-sector employment fell by 30,000 more than private-sector employment increased. In contrast, between December 2009 and June 2010, over the last six months of the Labour government, the private sector created 300,000 additional jobs over and above the 60,000 public-sector job losses. No expansionary fiscal contraction. None.
The Chancellor apparently has two part-time jobs, neither of which he seems to be very good at. The first is as the chief strategist to the Tories who was unable to win an outright majority for his party in the most winnable general election in a century or so. And if the recent polls are anything to go by, his plans to win a Conservative majority at the next one in 2015 may have to be put on hold.
Mess of contradictions
Osborne's second job is as the first ever part-time Chancellor, who apparently defers to his young, inexperienced and underqualified chief economist (yet another Tory Old Etonian), Rupert Harrison. I find it astonishing that Osborne buzzed off to the United States to hold David Cameron's hand at a meeting with Barack Obama at the White House just a week before the Budget. And this Budget may well have been the Chancellor's last chance to do something about growth and jobs, to silence the rumblings not least from his own party's back benches but also from the increasingly testy Liberal Democrats.
The decision by the Chancellor, who appears to be intent on widening income and wealth inequality further, to reduce the top rate of income tax to 45p for those earning more than £150,000 looks like a huge political gamble. A Guardian poll found that two-thirds of voters opposed it. If the evidence is that the tax doesn't raise much money, then abolishing it will have little impact - but nobody believes that. And all of this at a time when child benefit and working tax credits are being cut. Paying the poor less so that they work harder and paying the rich more so that they work harder does seem something of a contradiction.
On 6 April, Osborne's policies are going to impact thousands of working couples earning around £18,000, who will lose as much as £4,000 a year in tax credits. This could affect roughly 470,000 children, whose family income will drop by about £74 a week. Previously, someone in the family had to work 16 hours in order to qualify for these benefits but now they will have to work 24 hours a week or lose tax credits, which looks impossible when large numbers of workers want more hours and 1.4 million are in part-time jobs because they can't find full-time jobs.
Microdata from the latest labour force survey that the Office for National Statistics uses to calculate its labour-market statistics for October to December 2011 has now been released to researchers under strict guidelines. Workers were asked whether they would like to work more hours; 10 per cent said that they would and, of these, the average additional hours they wanted was 16. The young, women and minorities - and especially black and Asian people - were the ones saying that they wanted more hours. So the burden is greatest on the most vulnerable.
Osborne's plan to cut the pay of public-sector workers in the poorest parts of the country with the highest unemployment rates will widen regional differences even further. This is unlikely to save money and will simply deepen inequality and worsen public-sector labour relations.
Given that the government is putting emphasis on a one-size-fits-all monetary policy, this means, in effect, that it has no regional policy and hence no plans to do anything about the growing north-south divide. The new credit-easing plan that is intended to make it more straightforward for banks to give loans to small businesses, for example, could be targeted on deprived regions with greater loan subsidies than in the more prosperous south-east.
The newly announced small firm loan scheme, to which only four of the five banks have signed up, has failed to address the problem of banks' stringent lending conditions. As John Longworth, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, has noted: “It will not help smaller, younger and high-growth firms that have trouble getting credit in the first place." Cameron's proposal to "privatise" roads is another ill-considered plan that is going nowhere.
Building boost
The Chancellor should have left the 50p tax rate in place on grounds of fairness and instead incentivised firms to hire more staff through substantial National Insurance cuts.
To reduce the youth unemployment rate from 23 per cent, I would go further and give a two-year National Insurance holiday for every employed youngster under the age of 25. This idea could easily be extended to jobs created in deprived regions and to small firms and would likely gain broad support from employers' associations, the Trades Union Congress and voters.
Tax cuts targeted on job creators would pay for themselves by lowering unemployment and spending on benefits. In addition, I would give private-sector firms investment subsidies and announce plans to invest in our crumbling infrastructure, so as to give a fillip to the construction sector. The amount spent would depend on how the economy was performing but I would start with a bang. Such measures would boost output and lower unemployment and would also likely pay for themselves.
I always thought the Tories believed that tax cuts could be self-financing. Oh, that's right, only for the rich.
David Blanchflower is a New Statesman contributing editor and professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire
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81 comments
Brain in gear Cloddite, my simple minded friend?
Your recollection of history is pretty poor and that is being charitable Cloddite. Facts have never been your strong point, have they?
Opposed one of Thatcher's flagship policies, are you sure Cloddite, you get excite when thinking of her mass unemployment.
You don't dwell on the past, you stuck in it Cloddite, that seems to be the problem, look at Osborne, re-heating the failed policies of the 80's and puzzled why they are not working.
Cloddite, you are history, full stop, my drunken, foul mouth friend.
@David
Sorry, you just can't get away with the misinformation.
Before 2008 and the banking crises Labour borrowed £350Bn and splashed it around on fiscal expansion so now we have nothing to show for it except the debt. At the same time the government overheated the economy transfering resources from the private to public sector causing UK industry to shrink at its fastest rate since the 1970's.
Stop me if there is anything you disagree with.
The 2008 banking crash was a case of the government being 'found out'. We sufferred the worst recession since the 1930 because the economic had been tactically polarised towards financial services and the public sector through short term planning.
I agree with you that specific investment would accelerate the economy such as cutting worker taxes for the lower paid, more SME help in addition to todays budget, state support for strategic industries such as green energy etc.
Neither of us support Plan B (morronic borrow and spend to win votes). So why bother going on about it?
Banging on about the Nationwide Consumer Confidence index, too right my dimwitted friend, you dropped the ball there old chap not me.
Remind me why you asked that question, you didn't have to ask, oh that's right, you wanted to be clever and askewhy Prof Blanchflower, hadn't mentioned the uptick in the NCCS, is it coming back to you?
I see the Survey, just out, recorded a three point drop, but Bozo555, being Bozo555, didn't want to play and decided to ignore the report.
You find the truth impossible to handle Bozo555, I am getting the feeling your not going to bring up the subject of the Nationwide Consumer Confidence Survey for a long,long, time.
Am I right Bozo555, or am I right.
@matt
why dont you ask that of Blanchy? Read his post, he's says we are not borrowing enough.
Matt, I've said before you should at least make the effort to read posts and try to remember not to put the ball in your own net.
Meow Doomandbluster.
"Prey tell " do you always address people like you are William Shakespeare? You are more a berk then a bard.
Why don't you toddle off explain what happened to the
£ 400 billion of North Sea Oil Revenue & State Sell off receipts circa 1979 to 1997. Between 1980 and 1985, North Sea Oil accounted for 15% of total Government revenues .
I know for a fact it wasn't used to pay down the National Debt.
Why don't you want to talk about the 1 million people on the NHS waiting list old bean, don't forget, waiting lists are back on the march.
While your toddling, you can explain to me, why Gideon borrowed a recrod £15.2 Billion for Feb 12?
Super sorry, it should read a " record £15.2 Billion for Feb 12?"
Full Stop after this article.
It should be adressed that the child benefit cut when 2 people earn just under 60k = 118k a year they still keep their benefits? How is it possible that someone earning that much money needs support for their children? Me and my partner being a gay couple dont get benefits for having a dog do we?? Thats whats wrong with the child benefits.
Lowering the 50p tax rate? It shouldve been raised but to excuse it by saying it ONLY raised a third of the 3billion expected is ludicrous. 1 billion is still more than enough.
Small businesses and up and coming businesses should be supported. I consider starting my own business but the tax, Vat, businessrates and NI you have to pay from day one are taking most of the turnover. Living in Clapham, I see more and more of my lovely high street shops leaving and being replaced by homeware shops and 24hr corner stores?
I find it so annoying that everytime you hear Cameron or anyone else of the government speak, most noticeably on BBC Questiontime, they blame the previous Labour government.
Instead of taking actions to do something better, its always "we do blabla because of the previous government". I find that so tiring.
To summarize what in my opinion Labour needs to do (I am a hairstylist and 80% of my clients tell me this), is to get rid of Ed as leader and put in his place a woman for the next election!
@matt
Plan A is what Milibandwagan and Ed Balls say they support. Dont you remember the U turn? Dont tell me they are changing again - their economic policy like doing the okey kokey
@Matthew Fox. Quite right.
You missed out the piss-poor growth rate the carpetbaggers (the Cons) managed when they were last in power and the shredding of British industry to develop garden centres, B&Q and the Tesco blight...
Inastew, in denial are we now. I do feel sorry for you, Osborne borrowing a record figure for Feb 12, income tax receipts shrinking by well over billion.
I thought the plan was to cut the deficit not increase it, especially as the ONS had to revised borrowing upwards the borrowing for the first ten months by £1.3 Billion.
Is it back to the drawing board Inastew?