This Budget may have been our part-time Chancellor’s last chance
By David Blanchflower Published 21 March 2012
After nearly two years in power, the coalition government has to take ownership of the economic mess it has created.
After nearly two years in power, the coalition government has to take ownership of the economic mess it has created. There has been virtually no growth over the past 15 months, which stands in direct contrast to the previous 15 months under Labour when, because of monetary and fiscal stimulus, growth was 31 times higher than under George Osborne (3.1 per cent against 0.1 per cent, respectively). The latest data release shows that from June 2010 to December 2011, public-sector employment fell by 30,000 more than private-sector employment increased. In contrast, between December 2009 and June 2010, over the last six months of the Labour government, the private sector created 300,000 additional jobs over and above the 60,000 public-sector job losses. No expansionary fiscal contraction. None.
The Chancellor apparently has two part-time jobs, neither of which he seems to be very good at. The first is as the chief strategist to the Tories who was unable to win an outright majority for his party in the most winnable general election in a century or so. And if the recent polls are anything to go by, his plans to win a Conservative majority at the next one in 2015 may have to be put on hold.
Mess of contradictions
Osborne's second job is as the first ever part-time Chancellor, who apparently defers to his young, inexperienced and underqualified chief economist (yet another Tory Old Etonian), Rupert Harrison. I find it astonishing that Osborne buzzed off to the United States to hold David Cameron's hand at a meeting with Barack Obama at the White House just a week before the Budget. And this Budget may well have been the Chancellor's last chance to do something about growth and jobs, to silence the rumblings not least from his own party's back benches but also from the increasingly testy Liberal Democrats.
The decision by the Chancellor, who appears to be intent on widening income and wealth inequality further, to reduce the top rate of income tax to 45p for those earning more than £150,000 looks like a huge political gamble. A Guardian poll found that two-thirds of voters opposed it. If the evidence is that the tax doesn't raise much money, then abolishing it will have little impact - but nobody believes that. And all of this at a time when child benefit and working tax credits are being cut. Paying the poor less so that they work harder and paying the rich more so that they work harder does seem something of a contradiction.
On 6 April, Osborne's policies are going to impact thousands of working couples earning around £18,000, who will lose as much as £4,000 a year in tax credits. This could affect roughly 470,000 children, whose family income will drop by about £74 a week. Previously, someone in the family had to work 16 hours in order to qualify for these benefits but now they will have to work 24 hours a week or lose tax credits, which looks impossible when large numbers of workers want more hours and 1.4 million are in part-time jobs because they can't find full-time jobs.
Microdata from the latest labour force survey that the Office for National Statistics uses to calculate its labour-market statistics for October to December 2011 has now been released to researchers under strict guidelines. Workers were asked whether they would like to work more hours; 10 per cent said that they would and, of these, the average additional hours they wanted was 16. The young, women and minorities - and especially black and Asian people - were the ones saying that they wanted more hours. So the burden is greatest on the most vulnerable.
Osborne's plan to cut the pay of public-sector workers in the poorest parts of the country with the highest unemployment rates will widen regional differences even further. This is unlikely to save money and will simply deepen inequality and worsen public-sector labour relations.
Given that the government is putting emphasis on a one-size-fits-all monetary policy, this means, in effect, that it has no regional policy and hence no plans to do anything about the growing north-south divide. The new credit-easing plan that is intended to make it more straightforward for banks to give loans to small businesses, for example, could be targeted on deprived regions with greater loan subsidies than in the more prosperous south-east.
The newly announced small firm loan scheme, to which only four of the five banks have signed up, has failed to address the problem of banks' stringent lending conditions. As John Longworth, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, has noted: “It will not help smaller, younger and high-growth firms that have trouble getting credit in the first place." Cameron's proposal to "privatise" roads is another ill-considered plan that is going nowhere.
Building boost
The Chancellor should have left the 50p tax rate in place on grounds of fairness and instead incentivised firms to hire more staff through substantial National Insurance cuts.
To reduce the youth unemployment rate from 23 per cent, I would go further and give a two-year National Insurance holiday for every employed youngster under the age of 25. This idea could easily be extended to jobs created in deprived regions and to small firms and would likely gain broad support from employers' associations, the Trades Union Congress and voters.
Tax cuts targeted on job creators would pay for themselves by lowering unemployment and spending on benefits. In addition, I would give private-sector firms investment subsidies and announce plans to invest in our crumbling infrastructure, so as to give a fillip to the construction sector. The amount spent would depend on how the economy was performing but I would start with a bang. Such measures would boost output and lower unemployment and would also likely pay for themselves.
I always thought the Tories believed that tax cuts could be self-financing. Oh, that's right, only for the rich.
David Blanchflower is a New Statesman contributing editor and professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire
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81 comments
So that is another no then Bozo555.
Perfectly reasonable question, nope Bozo555, it is that simple.
If you had understood the numbers, you would not have asked the question in the first place, plus the fact, when the numbers came in at a record low for Oct 11, you failed to comment on them, surprise surprise.
All the news, do you mean unemployment, government borrowing, the economy shrinking. I don't ignore data like that Bozo555, your mistaking me for you old chap.
Just a note that since March 6th Labour averages a 5% lead in the YouGov polls and 8% in today's poll (43% to 35%). Sixty percent of respondents oppose the coalition
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/5deq20xb2d/YG-Archives-Po...
This unsurprisingly has slipped the attention of most of the press. After today's Budget I suspect tat is set to rise.
Danny Blanchflower
Good morning Matthew: have you woke-up from your slumber and put your brain in gear: it’s always advisable before engaging your mouth [Taken seriously] let’s not go there. Why didn’t you’ve now totally economically discredited previous Socialist government do more for manufacturing? Yes I remember Thatcher’s government selling-off the TSB. I was a member at the time and did oppose the sell-off. I also opposed the demutualization of all building societies, but that’s old History. One shouldn’t dwell in the past. It’s the future that concerns me more. A future Labour will not be a part of without a fundamental change in its attitude to wealth creation and the role of Government in Industry. But you’ll not understand that not been a workers?
Booming economy inherited in 1997, I don't think so.
Here are a few headlines;
1, Inflation 3.2%
2, Unemployment 2.5 million
3, National Debt £400 Billion
4, 1 million people on a NHS waiting list.
Danny,
It would be interesting to look at the budget forecasts for the next three years - inflation down, unemployment down, growth up, deficit down... all looking rather optimistic don't you think?
Regards
@ Blanchflower.
yes dear. I'd never heard you admit that that the current govt inherited a disaster, or are you saying thay have created a diasater? So you're saying evrything was fine, growth was fine before the coalition took over?
@matt
Foot's industrial bank was a state bank to fund the nationalisation of industries. But 30-40 years on and the UK is moving to private sector 'slow finance' (google it) which is what the new bank needs to support. Danny gets it. Osbornes cheap loans to SME scheme is a good step in the right direction for entreprenaurs and teams in small businesses but he could go a lot further.
More or less borrowing? Why cant you say? Are you stupid or is it just that Labour economic policy is a shambles?
I say cut borrowing quickly with stragic state help for SMEs and key industries even if it hurts a bit with frictional unemployment. Labour says no difficult choices and more gravy train borrowing to drive simplistic fiscal expansion (general untargeted state borrowing and spending) to win votes. Which approach do you support Matt?
Do you agree:
We urgently need to cut corporation tax much faster (the coalition are going too slow) and employment taxes so businesses can see the government is open for business and they can make more money in the UK employing more UK workers cheaper e.g. to ecourage more companies like Google to wash more of their global group profits through the UK to cut their global tax bill and grow their UK operations.
We need more urgent help for SMEs like cutting the UK's obscene burden of masses of pointless non-wealth creating none value added beauracracy e.g. the mass of beauracry it costs to employ someone (e.g taking on someone on £15k pa for SME with a small workforce costs a debilitating £5-10k per head in wasted Labour inspired overheads ).
We need to increase VAT first to 22.5% then to 25% (like Denmark, socialist model country) to penalise imports and to get UK businesses to focus on exports rather instead of retailing.
We need a cultural shift away from Labour's state fairy cradle to grave free lunch one size fits all leveling down culture and a move to efficient slow finance SMEs (i.e. anti Labour's monolithic approach) supported by government in partnership e.g. we need to diversify the education system so people have a better chance of finding the best path for them.
In fact, in every area Labour is the opposite of what is needed. Its really not surprising they did so much damage to the economy.
So Matt, more or less borrowing. Please anwer.
@Danny
"This Budget may have been our ..."
Please could I clarify. When you say "Our" are you refering to Progress or to 'Meacher and crackpots'?
'Plan B or not Plan B' that is the question.
What a load of nonsense as per usual business largely thinks it's a good budget borrowing is lower growth up and this against a backdrop of most of Europe in recession. I just find your pathetic attempt to keep referring to borrowed inflated 'growth' as the same Every single country has been downgraded since umm greece anyone labour stooge not an economist worth listening to
A backward budget from a backward political party in an increasingly backward country.
This neo-con inspired heresy is going to do nothing whatsoever to boost the economy. What's going to happen is that demand will be depressed across swathes of the economy bar the more affluent ones. Hoorah for the plutonomy!
What happens when capital continues to go where it can make a faster and bigger buck more quickly? Are Britain's budding entrepreneurs really going to be "dying to meet us" because they'll be paying 2p less in the pound? Hardly.
The BBC introduced the usual business dolts to pat the Chancellor on the head yet the real problem for this economy is going to require more than wishful thinking to fix. He still hasn't done anything which actively encourages growth or reduces the level of unemployment.
It's all pish and mince..