This Budget may have been our part-time Chancellor’s last chance
By David Blanchflower Published 21 March 2012
After nearly two years in power, the coalition government has to take ownership of the economic mess it has created.
After nearly two years in power, the coalition government has to take ownership of the economic mess it has created. There has been virtually no growth over the past 15 months, which stands in direct contrast to the previous 15 months under Labour when, because of monetary and fiscal stimulus, growth was 31 times higher than under George Osborne (3.1 per cent against 0.1 per cent, respectively). The latest data release shows that from June 2010 to December 2011, public-sector employment fell by 30,000 more than private-sector employment increased. In contrast, between December 2009 and June 2010, over the last six months of the Labour government, the private sector created 300,000 additional jobs over and above the 60,000 public-sector job losses. No expansionary fiscal contraction. None.
The Chancellor apparently has two part-time jobs, neither of which he seems to be very good at. The first is as the chief strategist to the Tories who was unable to win an outright majority for his party in the most winnable general election in a century or so. And if the recent polls are anything to go by, his plans to win a Conservative majority at the next one in 2015 may have to be put on hold.
Mess of contradictions
Osborne's second job is as the first ever part-time Chancellor, who apparently defers to his young, inexperienced and underqualified chief economist (yet another Tory Old Etonian), Rupert Harrison. I find it astonishing that Osborne buzzed off to the United States to hold David Cameron's hand at a meeting with Barack Obama at the White House just a week before the Budget. And this Budget may well have been the Chancellor's last chance to do something about growth and jobs, to silence the rumblings not least from his own party's back benches but also from the increasingly testy Liberal Democrats.
The decision by the Chancellor, who appears to be intent on widening income and wealth inequality further, to reduce the top rate of income tax to 45p for those earning more than £150,000 looks like a huge political gamble. A Guardian poll found that two-thirds of voters opposed it. If the evidence is that the tax doesn't raise much money, then abolishing it will have little impact - but nobody believes that. And all of this at a time when child benefit and working tax credits are being cut. Paying the poor less so that they work harder and paying the rich more so that they work harder does seem something of a contradiction.
On 6 April, Osborne's policies are going to impact thousands of working couples earning around £18,000, who will lose as much as £4,000 a year in tax credits. This could affect roughly 470,000 children, whose family income will drop by about £74 a week. Previously, someone in the family had to work 16 hours in order to qualify for these benefits but now they will have to work 24 hours a week or lose tax credits, which looks impossible when large numbers of workers want more hours and 1.4 million are in part-time jobs because they can't find full-time jobs.
Microdata from the latest labour force survey that the Office for National Statistics uses to calculate its labour-market statistics for October to December 2011 has now been released to researchers under strict guidelines. Workers were asked whether they would like to work more hours; 10 per cent said that they would and, of these, the average additional hours they wanted was 16. The young, women and minorities - and especially black and Asian people - were the ones saying that they wanted more hours. So the burden is greatest on the most vulnerable.
Osborne's plan to cut the pay of public-sector workers in the poorest parts of the country with the highest unemployment rates will widen regional differences even further. This is unlikely to save money and will simply deepen inequality and worsen public-sector labour relations.
Given that the government is putting emphasis on a one-size-fits-all monetary policy, this means, in effect, that it has no regional policy and hence no plans to do anything about the growing north-south divide. The new credit-easing plan that is intended to make it more straightforward for banks to give loans to small businesses, for example, could be targeted on deprived regions with greater loan subsidies than in the more prosperous south-east.
The newly announced small firm loan scheme, to which only four of the five banks have signed up, has failed to address the problem of banks' stringent lending conditions. As John Longworth, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, has noted: “It will not help smaller, younger and high-growth firms that have trouble getting credit in the first place." Cameron's proposal to "privatise" roads is another ill-considered plan that is going nowhere.
Building boost
The Chancellor should have left the 50p tax rate in place on grounds of fairness and instead incentivised firms to hire more staff through substantial National Insurance cuts.
To reduce the youth unemployment rate from 23 per cent, I would go further and give a two-year National Insurance holiday for every employed youngster under the age of 25. This idea could easily be extended to jobs created in deprived regions and to small firms and would likely gain broad support from employers' associations, the Trades Union Congress and voters.
Tax cuts targeted on job creators would pay for themselves by lowering unemployment and spending on benefits. In addition, I would give private-sector firms investment subsidies and announce plans to invest in our crumbling infrastructure, so as to give a fillip to the construction sector. The amount spent would depend on how the economy was performing but I would start with a bang. Such measures would boost output and lower unemployment and would also likely pay for themselves.
I always thought the Tories believed that tax cuts could be self-financing. Oh, that's right, only for the rich.
David Blanchflower is a New Statesman contributing editor and professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire
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81 comments
Be fair. If somebody messed with your finances for ten years, could you put it right in two. The labour party cleans out the coffers every time; and still nobody has been prosecuted for the 250,000,000. pounds stolen by the NHS IT con-men. And it wasn't just a mistake, they knew it would never work, and Labour should have spotted it. Spend spend spend.
I must admit that I am fed up of this entire "We inherited amess therefore we can't be criticised for making it a lot worse" I hear time and time again.
As far as I can recall the mess that the Government inherited was, a healthy, growing economy, falling unemployment and a large deficit. Now we have a flatlined economy, rising unemployment and a large deficit.
I also hear that the credid crunch, the loss of revenues, the VAT cut, the Cash for cars scheme and the cash for boilers scheme neither individualy or collectively had any effect on our deficit - yet Gordon Brown was incompetent.
economic mess it has created ??? hmm. i suppose we need to get gordon back as he solved boom and bust didn't he? i know maybe we need the golden rules that he kept banging on about, yes that's it i think - wouldn't that be sensible? perhaps too sensible? can someone please wake up miliband so that he could replace the chancellor he never wanted to someone far more sensible (my vote is for chuka).
at the same time can someone wake up danny too i think he's become deluded too.
Tax cuts should be prioritised for the poor. Take a look at the evidence below of much higher effective income tax rates in the UK system.
"Furthermore there is a group where the gross tax rate may be 90% or more. According to the DWP some 600,000 people are in a situation where a combination of taxes and benefit withdrawal means that they lose 90% or more of all their total income. As these are likely to be close to the bottom of the income scale we are making it incredibly unlikely that it will ever be financially viable for the people affected to ever find work. In my opinion social and economic mobility is important to an economy and its flexibility and we are failing here.
Even if they were not important we should be ashamed of the situation which we have allowed to build up here."
http://bit.ly/ybEdJ0
Surely any tax cuts should have been given to those who pay the highest marginal rates. The fact that they are amongst the poorest only adds to this.
Peter, now now please don't start trying to be a hero.
Why don't you tell me why Osborne has borrowed a record £15.2 Billion for Feb 12?
If your that smart, you will be able to tell me.
Blanchflower gives a powerful analysis of Osborne's tacking and inconsistencies, but even he is reduced to making counter proposals which merely tinker with the problems.
Oh for the days when the role of government was to identify a problem (eg the need to prepare young people to successfully compete for jobs when these eventually return), bring forward programmes to achieve that objective which are comprehensive and as radical as necessary, work out how to provide sufficient resources (including ruthlessly cutting other redundant programmes and ultimately raising taxes as necessary), and then persuading the public to back their actions.
The current budget game is sterile and unproductive, with all parties electorally terrified of upsetting the tabloids, and of letting it out of the bag that problem solving does cost a lot of money, and has to be paid for! Blair et al have much to answer for, in pretending that it can all be done with no pain, and have tied their successors in knots.
When did Brown blame the snow?
2008, the year of record fuel prices and double digit food inflation, yet it was all Gordon's fault.
Fastforward 2012, Cameron blames fuel prices and food inflation for the hurting the UK.
Talk about irony.
Today budget, is easy to summarise, cuts to finance tax cuts, welfare will have to find £10 Billion.
Foxy
You're right for once!! He has borrowed a record 15.2 Bn... So you agree we should get borrowing down.
(This simple question will cause the foxy to have a brain spasm now- he will call me asleep (the wit!), will talk about house prices, talk about thatcher(?!?!?!?) using north sea oil revenues, or just not answer..
So come on Foxy... Indupendany has been asking for a while- Are you for more borrowing or less??
oh oh, it's a david 'livingstone' blanchflower moment...
Asleep, your forgetting, Osborne has set a few records.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/sep/21/government-borrowing-reco...
So he now hold 2 monthly records in the space of 7 months.
2 down 10 to go Asleep.