Quack cures won’t stop the angry young taking to the streets
Our youngsters deserve better than the warm words of Osborne’s ideologues, intent on austerity.
By David Blanchflower Published 22 October 2011
Youth unemployment around the world is growing apace and young people are starting to be heard, with hundreds of thousands pouring on to the streets to protest about the seeming unfairness of it all and the lack of jobs. Free markets deliver the most efficient allocation of resources but their distribution may still be unjust.
The activism of the young has provoked an explosion of anger from the American right, including the likes of Rush Limbaugh, who so effusively supported the Tea Party. "These protesters, who are actually few in number, have contributed nothing," he said on his radio show. "They're parasites. They're pure, genuine parasites. Many . . . are bored trust fund kids, obsessed with being something, being somebody. Meaningless lives, they want to matter."
No reverse gear?
Scary stuff, but Limbaugh does have a point. I think the young are protesting because they do want to matter. It isn't their fault that there are no jobs. Youngsters need hope and too many have none, and that may come to haunt us all. As long as the protests remain peaceful, they are likely to have a big impact: governments worldwide are likely to get into trouble with their austerity agendas if the protests are joined by mothers with children and retired people.
Occupy Wall Street, the protest that started all of this, is apparently supported by most New Yorkers, according to a poll this month by Quinnipiac University. Sixty-seven per cent of New York City voters say they agree with the protesters' views; only 23 per cent do not.
In Britain, there is growing opposition to Chancellor George Osborne's refusal to accept the obvious - that his policies are directly responsible for the pain that young people are experiencing. A powerful editorial in the New York Times of 14 October, entitled "Britain's self-inflicted misery", stated that the coalition government's "quack cure" had failed:
Austerity was a deliberate ideological choice . . . It has failed and can be expected to keep failing . . . slashing government spending in an already stalled economy weakens anaemic demand, leading to lost output and lost tax revenues. As revenues fall, deficit reduction requires longer, deeper spending cuts.
Cut too far, too fast, and the result is not a balanced budget but a lost decade of no growth. That could now happen in Britain . . . Austerity is a political ideology masquerading as an economic policy. It rests on a myth, impervious to facts, that portrays all government spending as wasteful and harmful, and unnecessary to the recovery. The real world is a lot more complicated.
It is all so unnecessary. But I have a sense that change is in the air. People are waking up to the reality that growth has stalled and consumers have stopped spending. Bond yields are low because the economy is tanking.
The small growth of private-sector employment has not compensated for the collapse in public-sector employment as predicted by the government. Over the 12 months to June 2011, private-sector employment grew by 264,000, while public-sector employment fell by 240,000. It is worth noting that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also produces estimates of what has happened to employment since then. Over the three-month period between June and August this year, employment fell by a further 178,000. It will be interesting to see the mix between public- and private-sector job losses in due course.
Data from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research published on 11 October does make it look as if the coalition may well be driving us into the second Great Depression. I have presented earlier versions of the chart (below), which now includes the most recent ONS data revisions. This version is alarming. It shows the decline in output from the starting point and how long it takes to reverse each setback. The present slump looks worse than any other in the past 100 years; it is comparable in depth to that of the 1930s, having fallen by over 7 per cent, but is of longer duration and still is far from over.

We are 44 months in and less than half of the output drop has been restored. It is clear what Osborne's policies have done. Recovery was proceeding merrily under the previous chancellor, Alistair Darling, but has shown little growth over the past nine months.
Add insult to injury
Youth unemployment hit 991,000 in August, with the unemployment rate in the 16-24 age group hitting a record high of 21.3 per cent. So what did the government have to say about this? Chris Grayling, the spin merchant and employment minister, who has responsibility for overseeing the new Work Programme, was sent out to blame anything but the government's failed policies. The line is that the increase occurred because of what was happening in the eurozone, and wasn't that bad, as nearly a quarter of a million were in full-time education. That was an insult to the young.
Let's look at this nonsense. First, there is no evidence that the recent rise in youth unemployment has anything to do with the eurozone. Rather, it has everything to do with a freeze in public-sector hiring, the squeeze on public spending and the removal of help for the young that the Labour government introduced, such as the Education Maintenance Allowance.
Second, unemployment among the young has always been calculated as the sum of those not in full-time education plus those in full-time education looking for work. That is how the EU calculates youth unemployment in all countries. Since May 2010, unemployment among 16-to-24-year-olds has risen by 67,000, from 924,000 to 991,000. Unemployment among those in full-time education has fallen by 24,000, from 293,000 to 269,000, while those not in education has risen by 91,000, up from 630,000 to 721,000. The unemployment rate of youngsters not in full-time education now stands at 20.2 per cent, its highest level since such data first became available in 1992.
Grayling speaks with forked tongue.
David Blanchflower is the NS economics editor and a professor at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and the University of Stirling
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30 comments
Young people don't want to be subsidised! They want a chance to gain self respect, a decent job, a buy-in to society. They want to comtribute and feel part of something. The system we have created is what's denying them what they crave. It's rotten at the core. Any "subsidising" of the young would only be a sticking plaster for an ailment which runs much much deeper.
So what did our wonderful previous Labour government do about youth unemployment?
Let's also not forget. Labour kept over 2 million on long term sickness benefit, when most could of entered the world of work, and if employment is so hard to find. and for ten's of thousands it is!! Why are we still allowing mass-immigration of young people from across the world...
Does Bozo555 understand " People on Low Salaries " eat food and use Gas and Electricity to heat their homes.
Below is a classic example on Bozo555 moral bankruptcy. His hatred of Labour, blinds him to the serious economic damage, this government has inflicted on the country.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jobcentres-to-send-poor-an...
Bozo555 hankers for a better time, when over a quarter of the country lived in a low income household.
He lives for the day, when we return to 1997 and have interest rates of 6.25%, NHS waiting list which have 1 million people on them and people get the opportunity to work full time for £3 an hour.
@Matt
More pathetic insults I see as usual. What is it about affordable housing you find so offensive?
Interest rates of 6.25% , but what were house prices Matt? Is it better to get a small mortgage at neutral rate a massive mortgage at an all tome low rate? Think about it Matt, think what happens when rates rise, think how far a deposit goes.
"or a massive mortgage at an all time low rate?"
that should say.
"Does Bozo555 understand " People on Low Salaries " eat food and use Gas and Electricity to heat their homes. "
Yes I do, I've long argued inflation is a problem. If people weren't spending so much on housing perhaps the rises in the cost of living would be easier to absorb.
Do you understand what impact the housing boom under New Labour had on the low and medium paid?
Luddite: 'So what did our wonderful previous Labour government do about youth unemployment?'
I think you may be coming dangerously close to admitting that capitalism is the problem. If Labour didn't do anything and the Tory-Lib Dem coalition doesn't do anything, perhaps it's because unemployment is in capitalism's DNA and the young suffer first. Or would you rather say the unemployed are just idle?
@Matt
Do you want unaffordable housing or affordable housing? I argue for affordable housing, I find your ridicule very strange given that affordable housing is considered a left wing ideal.
It would make some sense for all of us to stop seeing this as some typical left - right "divide" issue. The problem goes much deeper, and as Freeman has pointed out above, it's an issue with the very system itself.
Unfettered capitalism leads to a banking system that fails the masses in the pursuit of profit, and corporate influence hijacking elected governments. As it stands, democracy hasn't failed, it's been stolen. It no longer matters if the government carries the flag of "Conservative" or "Liberal" as they ultimately serve the same masters.
david "quantatitive easing" blanchflower is complaining about quack cures. it seems to me david blanchflower is just as much a quack economic doctor as george osborne, this just seems to be just an argument over which quack solution we should chose.