Leader: With growth so feeble, Osborne must face his failure
It is unacceptable for the Chancellor to dismiss his critics as "deficit deniers".
By Staff blogger Published 28 July 2011It is some measure of Britain's economic woes that George Osborne described growth of just 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year as "positive". The UK may not be back in recession but the recovery that began at the end of 2009 has all but come to a halt. The Chancellor needed growth of 0.8 per cent to remain on course to meet the Office for Budget Responsibility's growth forecast for the year, but he fell far short. The economy has now grown by just 0.2 per cent over the past nine months, compared to 2.1 per cent over the previous nine. As a result, the OBR will be forced to downgrade its growth predictions for the fourth time since it was created last May. Not since the 1930s has an economic recovery been so weak.
In his response to the figures, Mr Osborne dwelt at length on the "international instability" that has hindered growth. He was not wrong to do so. The eurozone remains in crisis and the US - owing to the actions of those Vince Cable aptly described as "right-wing nutters" - has come dangerously close to defaulting on its debt. Yet this does not explain why the UK has performed so poorly compared to its competitors, all of which face similar challenges.
The truth is that Mr Osborne's policies have exacerbated Britain's economic problems. His mythical claim that the UK was on the "brink of bankruptcy" had a chilling effect on consumer confidence and investment. His decision to raise VAT to 20 per cent tightened the squeeze on families and automatically added 1.5 per cent to inflation. No one doubts Britain must reduce its huge budget deficit - but a prolonged period of anaemic growth will make that task even harder.
In yet another attempt to outline a growth strategy, Mr Osborne has hinted that he will reduce "very high tax rates" on individuals and businesses. But instead of prioritising the abolition of the 50p rate - which affects only the top 1 per cent of earners - he should cut those taxes that fall hardest on the low-paid. One option, as the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, has argued, is to introduce a temporary reduction in VAT. That would boost consumer spending, lower inflation, protect retail jobs and increase real wages. When Alistair Darling reduced VAT to 15 per cent during the financial crisis, consumers spent £9bn more than they would otherwise have done. But Mr Osborne and David Cameron have ruled out further fiscal stimulus.
That leaves Vince Cable's call for a "more radical" form of quantitative easing - the closest thing the government has to a plan B. Inflation is running at more than twice its target level, however, and ministers will struggle to persuade the Bank of England of the case for greater monetary stimulus.
The most coherent option, as we have long argued, is to delay the largest spending cuts until the economy is out of the recovery phase. With growth so feeble, it is unacceptable for Mr Osborne to dismiss his critics as "deficit deniers".
The old claim was that financial markets would punish any deviation from the current timetable. The new threat is that they will react against a perception that policy is driven by self-destructive stubbornness rather than the economic evidence. The Chancellor must admit his approach has failed and change course before even greater damage is done.
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4 comments
seems to me the only way to get osborne to stop claiming that anything above zero is good news on growth is to beat him at his own game.
maybe the person who took over david blanchflowers twitter account could start claiming, next time, that that growth for the next quarter will be very high, and then when it isn't.............................
as i suppose the problem is that no one will want to risk their professional reputation by making such an absurd claim.
Failed policies from a failed Chancellor.
The problems relating the financial crisis had stemmed as far back as 2003, the booms in financial and property sectors were welcomed at the time as they provided bouyant tax revenues, this wasn't helped by the fact we believed the crap about brown solving boom and bust, unfortunately the iron chancellor became the opposite and the golden rules were quietly ignored.
What we realised is that we could not build an economy on cheap chinese imports (even though it kept inflation down), property debt, bank jobs and public spending. We need to move away from ALL of these things - we need to diversify our economy from the public sector, banking and property - ask yourself what areas of the global economy will the UK compete in.
The solutions are not quick fixes and we need to build the economy for the long haul, in terms of govt spending we need to diversify it to become more growth oriented, reduce admin style govt jobs and increase infrastructure spend, reduce business taxes for the north, provide better incentives for growth sectors and other supply side measures - change the tax system to discourage consumption and increase investment (even though there is less feel good factor with that approach), in summary there is no quick fix.
WOW
@Colin Clement- you're really sure he's a failed chancellor already? Or do you pre-judge based on political camp....BORING
@Eddy- not often i read something that triggers in me, namely the part of tax breaks in the north. That's intersting and innovative (well, business zones have been around a while but we don't use them enough, why is that??)- There are many people there who will lose jobs when the cuts come, so that part of the country needs disproportionate help, after the 3B's skewed the NE economy of England so much to the public sector
@ Frances- you're wrong and your joke is not as funny as the ex- labour chancellors parting quip about their being no money- we spent it all!! HAHA, it's like when dad came home from the race course telling mum he'd done the morgage on booze and gambling(you had to be there). Still, he had a nice time whilst it lasted and everyone liked him, including himself for a while....
You're wrong because every quarter we get through without some other REAL disaster, our chances of coming through increase. You're clever, but in a second world war type situation where you send 5000 men to divert the attention of an enemy to ensure the survival rates of the 100,000 on the main mission, you'd be nowhere, because you and your merry band of clowns think 0.2% is disastrous, whereas in the real world wrong decisions by the red nose brigade cause untold misery to so many - real misery, not the moaning minnie type that I am teaching my youngest to cope with, rather than pack them off to the nearest council 'my cookie crumbled into my tea' crisis centre
Disastrous, mate, is when a UK prime minister tells the commons that unless we wage war with Iraq we will get done by WMD's in 45 mins (against findings of our security services)
Disastrous, pal, is when Brown the clown cut tax rebate on pension dividends (lightly complex for man in the street) then claimed he was a friend of the savers.
Diasatrous, me old chutney, is when a power struggle between the priminister and chancellor (possibly the 2 most pwoerful figures in the country)assumes such gargantuan proportions that disastrous policies are enacted in a who's more macho standoff, the price of which we're paying now and for a long long time. I mean, who ever heard of a winning team combination where the 2 leaders didn't SPEAK to each other... kids eh
Disastrous, my old china, is when an finace minister thinks he can abolish boom and bust!! on this one I have to prevent myself from exploding with laughter... abolish the cycles inherent in every moving thing- WOW, he's good- or may be he studied LOADS of economic books but zero mathematic/stat. Got rid of the cycles, it's just so loaded... i could write 5000 words on that one
I could go on but need to jump back to work mode, need to make some revenue for the HMRC (hit and miss revenue collection)
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