The land of broken promises
The coalition may claim to be committed to front-line services and public-sector jobs, but the econo
By David Blanchflower Published 19 January 2011 19:01
I listened to the Old and Sad by-election results online on Radio 5 Live from sunny Florida, which, incidentally, was the only US state that didn't have snow this past week. The British electorate was inevitably going to turn against the coalition and Nick Clegg was only able to avoid disaster because the Tories didn't try very hard. Apparently, they were away skiing with their banker friends -- George Osborne was, anyway.
Economic data continues to worsen in four crucial areas -- construction, net trade, business investment and unemployment -- even before the cuts and tax rises take effect. The volume of construction output in the latest data release fell by 0.7 per cent. New work fell by 0.5 per cent and repair and maintenance fell by 1.1 per cent. The biggest fall -- 6.4 per cent -- was in infrastructure new work. Construction was the main driver for the growth that was observed in the second and third quarters of 2010.
New figures for 2010 Q3, published by the Office for National Statistics [PDF] on 22 December, show that business investment, in seasonally adjusted terms, rose by 3.1 per cent. This is good news -- but total manufacturing investment decreased by 2.5 per cent compared with the previous quarter. Apart from a period of strong growth in 2010 Q1, business investment is yet to show any significant momentum since GDP started to recover in 2009 Q4. No individual industry has acted as a catalyst for overall growth. The Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast assumes that investment is a major driver in the recovery and will grow by more than 10 per cent per annum.
The latest net trade data was also bad. The UK's deficit on trade in goods and services was £4.1bn in November, compared with a deficit of £4.0bn in October. On average, forecasters expect the UK net trade deficit to make a 0.5 per cent contribution to GDP growth in 2011, having detracted from growth in 2010.
Worst of all, the number of unemployed youngsters under the age of 25 has hit a record 951,000, surpassing the previous record of 944,000 reached in June and September 2009. This represents an increase of more than 50,000 over the past three months.
More than 225,000 youngsters have been unemployed [PDF] for more than 12 months, increasing fears of a "lost generation". What a shame, then, that Alastair Darling's plan to tax the bankers and use the money to pay for measures to reduce youth unemployment has now been ditched for no good reason by the Con-Dem coalition
.
The list of the government's broken promises is growing. Before the election, the Tories promised a "fair fuel stabiliser" to keep petrol tax rises down when oil prices are high. It looks as if they have reneged on that promise, even though David Cameron raised hopes that it would be implemented. And then there are those bankers. In opposition, Osborne and Cameron played a dirty political game, suggesting that they were going to restrict bonuses. They said that no banker's bonus would be higher than £2,000 -- a policy that is still on the Conservative Party website. Slasher Osborne has also delayed plans to force banks to disclose all bonus payments exceeding £1m -- despite the government naming every public official earning more than £55,000.
As my old friend Will Hutton wrote in the Observer this week:
Bankers' bonuses unite everyone in outrage -- from captains of industry, bewildered how top bankers can earn so much more than they do, to the newly unemployed, who wonder what they have done to deserve poverty and hardship while the money men pocket millions . . . The banks, far from serving the real economy, have become a tax on it.
The public has no objection, as far as I can tell, for payment for performance. The objection is mostly about payments for lack of performance.
Comments by the CEO of Barclays, Bob Diamond, in front of the Treasury select committee that the "period of remorse and apology for banks . . . needs to be over" didn't seem to capture the public mood. You would have thought Diamond's advisers would have warned him about other recent PR disasters, including that of BP's Tony Hayward, who said "I want my life back" after the Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion killed 11 workers and leaked 206 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. Similarly, the CEOs of the big three car makers flew in on luxurious private jets to give testimony to the US Congress that the auto industry was running out of cash and needed $25bn in taxpayer money to avoid bankruptcy. The next time they testified, the CEOs of Chrysler, Ford and GM drove the 500-plus miles in their latest fuel-efficient models.
People compare themselves to their friends and neighbours and workers care about the salaries of their colleagues. So taxpayers are angry about bankers getting big bonuses at a time when almost everyone else is experiencing declining real incomes. The recently published earnings data from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (Ashe) for 2010 show how tough things are. Mean annual earnings for the 25 million employees in the UK grew, on average by only 0.2 per cent on the year; while in the private sector earnings fell by 0.8 per cent. Public-sector earnings grew by just 0.6 per cent. However, this wage growth partly reflects the transfer of the publicly owned banks Lloyds and RBS in October 2008 from the private to the public sector -- moving a number of relatively well-paid workers with them. And there is a public-sector wage freeze, along with a hiring embargo, so there is no likelihood of an explosion in wage inflation.
The table below shows the differing levels of importance of the public sector by regions in Britain, according to the Ashe survey. The public sector accounts for 39 per cent of workers in Wales, 38 per cent in Scotland and 37 per cent in the north east; it accounts for around a quarter in London and the south east. The second column shows that public-sector jobs outside London and the south east, on average, are better paid than private-sector jobs. Public-sector job losses are going to hit hardest regions such as the north east, Wales and Scotland, which have relatively high unemployment rates. We are demonstrably not all in this together.

In a speech on public services on 17 January 2011, David Cameron said: "As we take the tough but necessary steps to deal with the deficit, our first priority is to protect front-line services and to protect jobs in the public services." Don't laugh.
David Blanchflower is economics editor of the New Statesman and a professor at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, and the University of Stirling.
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32 comments
We have a coalition givernment, not a Conservative or LibDem one, and therefore their policies in government involve compromise. Coalition government is all about compromise, which means it is impossible for both parties to fulfil their manifesto promises. Move on Mr. Blanchflower.
No Mike555 you are making the case for restricted internet access.
You don't seem to recognise Osborne's policies are driving higher unemployment for those 18-24, why is that?
We need a 5 year radical plan for the north - something which labour should have addressed.
I would start with providing a special 5 year TAX-FREE zone for all foreign businesses setting up in the north looking to recruit and employee. This will give the north an obvious and significant tax advantage over the rest of the UK but will help increase private sector employment and is necessary. This should be followed-up with a longer-term lower rate of taxation than the rest of the UK.
We should also accelerate high-speed rail 2 and improve infrastructure projects for the north.
What the north does not need is an increase in government spending of the administrative sort or other types of non-jobs - which will only be a short-term strategy - which was followed by previous administration.
Its a problem we have to live with, and targetting certain groups seems rather difficult. All that can happen is real useful jobs need to be created, and the only way that will happen is by increasing Uk competitiveness and actually to stop offshoring more and more jobs. http://www.tipsfortraveling.net/
Foreign wars? mmmmmmmmmmm Falkland Islands, Kuwait.
Strange Luddite has never considered VAT as a tax. VAT was introduced in 1973 by Ted Heath, Thatcher's government increased it to 15% and John Major's Government raised it to 17.5% and extended it to Electricity & Gas.
Gordon Brown reduced VAT on Electricity and Gas.
I wish people would stop taxing the truth.
I've answered all your posts Matt. You don't seem to recognize the impact of high house prices on our young, and you don't even seem to be able to defend your own posts (see the long list of questions you've yet to answer).
It is not my job or desire to defend the Tories.
The first thing is to bring Britain back from the abyss. The coalition must confront the bills from previous governments decade of debt, setting out a clear plan to put our public services and welfare state on a sustainable footing for the long term. The new government need to put an end to Labour year's of ever-rising borrowing. So we'll be paying less money to foreign creditors, and have more money to spend improving our country.
Who ever said, reducing Labour's catastrophic deficit would be easy.
matthew fox. Ten's of thousands of British kids couldn't find jobs after leaving school, because of your parties insane immigration policy. The very thought of allowing that psychologically unstable Mr Balls anywhere near that little red box is truly terrifying.
Talk about the government's broken promises,eight months in.How about the MPC's abject failure on its SOLE mandate, inflation,over 9 years.You were utterly clueless with the economic data.
I see Mike555 is a fan of the 80s group Go West, he is the king of wishful thinking.
You might think I have backed up your argument, but thinking is not one of your's forte, is it really.
Mike555, you certainly have issues.
People between the ages of 18-24 certainly have an uphill battle when they encounter people like you, there is a phrase, " The Lights are on, but no one's at home "
There is nothing with being young, if anything, Neil Kinnock is still correct.
I don't know how old you are, but in 1983, Neil Ninnock, warned against being young.
In some ways, Neil must think he has been transported back in time. Like Kinnock, I understand how many people are being written off.
They do say history has a habit of repeating itself, wouldn't you agree Mike555.
If you are correct about demographic change causing the higher unemployment from 2002 onwards that begs two questions:
1) Why did we not experience medium/long-term (e.g. at least 5 years) mass unemployment after the second world war when hundreds of thousands returned home from war?
2) Should we not have reduced or removed the minimum wage so that those young people could be employed at a lower wage? Employment at a lower wage is surely better than unemployment?
@Matt
"Mike555, you certainly have issues."
What are those then? Is this best you can do now I've dealt with all your posts?
"There is nothing with being young"
So what is wrong with calling a young person a 'youngster'? You used the word 'youth' which pretty much means the same thing.
"I don't know how old you are, but in 1983, Neil Ninnock, warned against being young."
That just shows you don't read my posts properly as you could work it out from what I wrote in a previous column.
"They do say history has a habit of repeating itself, wouldn't you agree Mike555."
I've been arguing the case that the young have it hard, what are you arguing?
So the government are introducing policies which drive up inflation - VAT up for example.
The government's actions are preventing the MPC from achieving their goals of stabilising inflation at 2%.
Mission impossible.
What better excuse will the Tory led government need to scrap the MPC and bring interest rate control back to itself as another of Gordon Brown's bad ideas unwinding?
Even if our youngsters find jobs, what hope do they have of being able to buy a home and a decent quality of life, never mind a home to raise a family in?
Then when you add a university education in the mountain to climb gets even bigger.
Until we deal with the cost of living (mainly house prices) I can't see much changing.
How the hell was society ‘broken’ by Thatcher? When she came into power, we were in a mess. Inflation was as 27%, unemployment was at a post-War high and we needed IMF help to repay the obscene Government debt accumulated by Labour.
Her policies resulted in a decrease in deflation, which in return led to economic recovery. We unfortunately paid the price of high unemployment, but what alternative did Labour offer? If we’d left a Socialist Government in power, we’d have become a third-world slum.
Thatcher and the Conservatives, for all their faults, saved the country. Labour’s Socialist ideologies might look good on paper, but in reality they’d have driven the UK into the gutter.
What actually caused all this... "They gave the childrens meat to the dogs" or in other words "they gave our homes,jobs and future to undeserving foreginers"
Now they only need to get rid of us and the job is done. !
Stuart
The country had to rebuild from the devastation from WW2 and move from wartime to peacetime production. And then there was the establishment of the NHS etc. Unemployment in the UK was low for the next twenty years.
There is actually little evidence that the minimum wage has had much of any effect on youth employment. In some work i did it does appear that the influx of a million workers from eastern europe did have an effect.
It isn't so much the level of the wage as how productive workers are for that wage. Many of the workers from Poland were highly qualified, spoke English, were motivated and showed up every day.
Danny Blanchflower
Well I think Alastair Darling's plan to tax the bankers and use the money to pay for measures to reduce youth unemployment, though well intended during the emergency obviously couldn't stand the test of time ie probably the most important working characteristic of any good example. I don't know why the idea was ditched but I prefer to think it's because it actually treats us via the symptoms in effect, rather than helps free us from the burdens associated with the actual cause of the economic disease ie this so-called compensation/bonus culture. Thus we will always have the poor with us when systems are designed to perpetuate the myth.
So if it's true Slasher Osborne has also delayed plans to force banks to disclose all bonus payments exceeding £1m -- despite the government naming every public official earning more than £55,000 - one wonders if it's because, as Mr.Diamond kindly reminded us in the recent treasury select committee meeting, as a working CEO he is able to take the decision about whether to have his bonus in the privacy of his own family ie domestic sphere ( the same domestic sphere which is common to all citizens). That's what mucks it up in my view. We need to sort out the difference between good governance of the firm, so to speak and the good governance of the commons especially when it comes to protecting the so-called front line.. where exactly is it supposed to be?
Come on, cuts are over due from1997 to 2010, the public sector payroll grew by 0.9m, or 17%. Now, 0.2m of that comprised the staff of our newly nationalised banks, and arguably we should omit them (on the grounds that it is a "temporary" nationalisation). But even when we do that, the growth in public sector employment still comes to around 13%. So where has this growth been? Well over half of it (excluding the banks) has been in the NHS. Since 1997, the NHS has increased its staff numbers by an astonishing 35% – from 1.2m up to 1.6m. A further 300,000 have joined the education payroll. Education staff have increased from 1.1m up to 1.4m, a rise of 27%.The police – the ones screaming at the coalition. Their payroll increased by a cool 28%, from 230,000 up to nearly 300,000. In fact, the only identified areas where there was a decline over the period were construction – which was largely accounted for by outsourcing (including staff transfers) - and HM Forces. Yes, that's right – the bit of the public services which by common consent has shouldered the biggest burden over the last 13 years with New Labour's endless foreign wars, is one of the few bits that has been cut. So like all business in the good times you expand and in the bad times you contract. You can't keep spending what you no longer have and you can't borrow your way out of debt. So what is the alternative keep borrowing and spending regardless or simply tax the economy to death?
.
Anand
The reason why youth unemployment ticked up from 2000 is because the number of young people increased sharply. There are more 20 year olds today than there have been for nearly twenty years. This is the echo of the baby boomers. There is another one starting with 5 year olds For the next decade the number if 16-24 year olds declines.
Danny Blanchflower
Very interesting final table. In poorer areas the public sector is paid significantly more than the private sector. When you factor in much longer holidays, much better pensions and benefits it becomes a no-brainer for talented people to work in the public sector in poorer regions, crowding out the private sector who cannot compete in terms of pay and conditions. So the private sector remains weak and the regions only survive due to subsidies from the South-East. Surely it would be much better to raise taxes more locally, so public sector wages and benefits would be lower in poorer regions and allow the private sector to compete.
Slightly off topic, but the government looks set to announce a new head of internal IT who has come out in favour of cuts to technology, and possibly jobs: http://bit.ly/eYknzV
The argument in favour of introducing all the technology into public services in the first place was that it would make government more efficient, and indeed reduce the need for tax investment and public sector wages.
Are the government admitting that the techno-fetishism was misguided, or is it merely an excuse for short term cutting?
@Luddite
Still unfamiliar with VAT ? Don't Conservatives pay VAT ?
I don't know why you brought up the issue of Income Tax, I didn't, but nothing surprise me with you.
With record youth unemployment of 951,000 and projected to hit in excess of 1,000,000 ( that is a million Mike555 ), I would say the odds are firmly stacked against " youngsters "
Just for the record, youth unemployment covers those between the ages of 18-24.
Referring to these individuals as
" youngsters " comes across as very condescending.
@Matt
"With record youth unemployment of 951,000 and projected to hit in excess of 1,000,000 ( that is a million Mike555 ), I would say the odds are firmly stacked against "youngsters " "
Ok Matt, I think you've just backed up my argument that youngsters have an uphill battle, whilst not answering the housing issue again.
"Referring to these individuals as "youngsters" comes across as very condescending."
Maybe to you, but why is that? Is 'youth' any better? If so why? Is there something intrinsically wrong with being young?
You could also argue that the quality of Public Sector jobs is better than Private Sector in some areas, in other words the Private sector give us Mac-jobs flipping burgers, stacking shelves in supermarkets. In my chosen profession of IT Security and information Governance (with over ten years experience and a record of getting organisations through ISO certifications) I can earn silly money in the Private Sector between 3and 4 times what I am earning in the Public Sector, but I like living among my family and friends in my community (or big society if you will) and have no desire to move to London.
What we really need is for the Private Sector to put it's money where it's mouth is and create regional centres with high skill high quality jobs in the post industrial cities of the North rather than insisting that everything must centre around London and the South East. So while it appears that the public Sector distorts the labour market in the post Thatcher wildness of the North, what is really happening is those who have high skills and a strong love for our home towns move to the public Sector as this is the only real opportunity to advance our careers and stay put. I would think that the government would be happy with this as it makes for stable contented communities with a mix of skills, classes and professions rather than allowing the once (and still) great Victorian cites of the north to deteriorate even further and allow this country to become more divided.
Appreciate the reply Mr Blanchflower. may I then respond with a question. If The number of young people directly correlates with youth unemployment, it sounds like the bulk of the reason for this issue is a-political, ie not the fault of any government/party, but largely a demographic issue.
As such it doesnt necessarily require a political solution. You cannot fix demographic problems of this kind. Its like argiuing for a government to fix the fact our state pension costs will rocket due to the number of baby boomer generation folk retiring over the next 10 years.
Its a problem we have to live with, and targetting certain groups seems rather difficult. All that can happen is real useful jobs need to be created, and the only way that will happen is by increasing Uk competitiveness and actually to stop offshoring more and more jobs.
Bottom line: offshoring of entire industrial sectors like IT services, manufacturing etc has taken money OUT of the UK economy. Globalisation may have helped the workd as a whole but it has hurt british people. With Apprenticeships as a concept considered old fashioned and not enough university places, the lack of decent paying unskilled jobs in this country is directly impacting the unemployment figures and by extension, the benefit culture. (case in point, 48% of all Olympic site construction jobs went to non-British workers)
The americans would laugh at us the way we shoot our own economy and welbeing of our citizens in the foot with this free movement of labour nonsense. The french and germans for example buy nationally, employ nationally far more than we do.
matthew fox
20 January 2011 at 19:47
Foreign wars? mmmmmmmmmmm Falkland Islands, Kuwait.. There's a colossal difference between two just wars and Labour's illegal wars of aggression.
Income tax was brought in to pay for the napoleonic wars no government left or right replied that one, and let's not forget council tax, one of the most unfair taxes of all rocketed under Labour and Mr Brown..
Once again an interesting perspective on the UK situation.
I do not work in the UK public sector but I am interested in public/private sector pay and conditions. Can anyone confirm that public sector figures are being skewed by the ongoing privatisation of local government services which has left them retaining skilled people eg. accountants, engineers etc and hence a higher average wage bill. Or are contracted out wage levels being included in the average figures?
Anand
This of course was not any government's fault it's just demographics. The problem comes when a recession arrives when the young are typically hardest hit and this time around the cohort is huge. It just means governments need to tackle the problem and not walk away from it as this government is doing. The benefit is that you only need to do this temporarily as the numbers of young people starts to fall rapidly over the next decade.
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Let me get this straight. youth unemployment has been on an increasing trend since 2003 and peaked around 2009 (from your own graph) and yet its now the Coalitions fault? You are having a laugh mr Blanchflower. Although from your jibe about skiing and the chancellor, its pretty clear everything you say is heavily rose tinted! (and I dont mean optimistic)
Come to thnk of it, Mr Blanchflower, care to posit a theory as to the reason for the surge in youth unemployment between 2003 and 2007 (pre-crisis) a period during which you were lauding your political master Mr Brown's wonderfully benign low inflation high growth utopia and calling on LOWERING base rates during a massive asset price bubble?
Take your party politics OUT of your analysis and just report on the data, you are supposed to be an economist not a Labour party apartchick!