The gang of four does its worst

Young people are being hit hardest by the economic crunch. As more chase university places, apprenti

I remember as if it was yesterday the day I got my A-level results. But this year was different - there was disappointment on a grand scale. Too many qualified youngsters chasing too few university places. And the universities minister, David Willetts, could only wring his hands and say, "I am sorry." Pathetic.

According to the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (Ucas), 187,488 hopefuls have entered the clearing system, but more than 150,000 will be turned away. At the time of writing, 13,597 had found places through clearing. That means more than 25 per cent of the 675,465 who applied for undergraduate courses this autumn are as yet without a place (including Gary Lineker's son George). Applications were up 11 per cent compared to 2009.

From conversations I have had with university vice-chancellors and principals, it seems that most of those in clearing are perfectly capable of following a degree course and the universities are willing to take them, but they can't, because the government won't allow it. If they take more students, they risk fines.

The 150,000-plus without places this year is bad enough, but there will be even more in 12 months' time. Not only has the coalition cut the number of places by 10,000, but many of those who failed to get one this year will apply again next year, and many of those will not get in, and so on for years to come. The government must fund a lot more places, and quickly.

Growing unequal

Many of these young people are setting their sights on an apprenticeship instead, but their prospects of getting one are slim. On 16 August, BT announced that it had received 24,000 applications for 221 places - up from 9,000 last year. This is many more applications than were received by the London School of Economics (18,738), Cambridge (16,211), Oxford (17,882) or my alma mater, Leicester (22,074). Not much hope there.

Interestingly, the most popular subjects are nursing (110,000), design studies (96,000) and law (94,327). The only major subjects with declining applications were finance (-5.5 per cent), economics (-2.3 per cent) and building (-6.7 per cent). There were more applications for drama (49,301) than for economics (48,028).

It's not just A-level students who are facing a bleak future. What will all those 16-year-olds do who are leaving school with few (if any) qualifications? There isn't much they can hope for, now that the government has scrapped programmes such as the Future Jobs Fund, which helped young people into work. In a recession, better-qualified candidates enter lower down the job pyramid, pushing out the less qualified.

The unemployment rate among the under-18s is already 33 per cent; for those without GCSEs and from minority groups it is more than 50 per cent. Youth jobs have been disappearing fast. Over the past two years, employment across all age groups fell by 494,000, while it fell by 140,000 among those aged 16-17, and by 238,000 among 18-to-24-year-olds. That means 77 per cent of the decline in employment has been suffered by young people.

It is hard to blame private-sector companies for not hiring people when they are watching consumer confidence fall. Many of them hoarded labour through the downturn by cutting working hours and pay; if and when any recovery comes, they will increase hours for existing employees before taking on new staff. As for the public sector, recruitment freezes hit young jobseekers the hardest.

So much for that "social mobility" and "big society" claptrap. The Chancellor may insist that "we're all in this together", but a recent report published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, titled Growing Unequal?, suggests otherwise. The OECD study found that it is difficult to carry out major fiscal consolidation without driving up inequality. That is exactly what happened in Canada, Finland and Sweden - countries the British government has held up as models of where such programmes "succeeded".

In the past week, even more evidence has emerged of the dramatic drop in business and consumer confidence provoked by the heartless gang of four - George Osborne, David Cameron, Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg - with their talking down of the economy. About half of the 2,000 households surveyed by YouGov and Markit expect their finances to worsen over the next 12 months; only a quarter expect them to improve. And negative sentiment has spread from workers in the public sector to those in the private sector, among whom the degree of pessimism has reached its highest point since June 2009. Job insecurity remains a great concern for many, while fear of falling house prices is adding to the worries of homeowners. None of this is good for consumer spending.

Last resort

The latest ICAEW/Grant Thornton UK Business Confidence Monitor, meanwhile, suggests that economic recovery will slow in the second half of 2010. The chart (below) shows that business confidence has weakened significant­ly, falling from 25.5 in the second quarter of 2010 to 21.5 in the third quarter. In particular, confidence has weakened in the service sector and fallen sharply in banking, finance, insurance, retail and wholesale. Confidence in construction also weakened considerably.

blanchflower graph

On 19 August, the Bank of England reported that trends in lending to businesses remained negative in June, contracting by £3.5bn compared to £2.2bn in May and £1.1bn in April. The new external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Martin Weale, warned of a "significant chance" of a further recession as approvals for home loans fell by a fifth.

I agree with the distinguished economist Sir Tony Atkinson, who said: "If governments can take on the role of lender of last resort, then we should be willing to see government as the ­employer of last resort. Put bluntly, governments have to step up to the plate, as Roosevelt did in the Great Depression."

So, Slasher, it's time to step up to the plate and do the right thing. I suspect our kids are not going to become a lost generation quietly.

9 comments

Chris's picture

@mike555

"It was the borrow borrow spend spend culture that nearly brought the economy down, funny how some people seem to have forgotten already."

Er, no it wasn't, high levels of debt of the average British consumer didn't cause the banking crisis. That was caused by bankers and ratings agencies over valuing subprime mortgages, the investors and banks then bought shit loads of overrated subprime mortgages.

From previously reading your posts, mike, I know you want to see borrowers punished and virtuous savers ascend to a higher plane. But in reality your economics will lead to poverty and suffering unseen since the 1930s. Do you really want Hoovervilles in the parks of Great Britain in the 21st century?

Ian's picture

Most young people would rather move into skilled apprenticeships and, as David Blanchflower touched upon, the problem of provision is even more desperate than University places.
Even in a downturn the Coalition government needs to find the political will to build on the tentative steps made by the last government to provide thousands of places through the public sector and introduce compulsory training as part of the procurement and planning process.

Stuart's picture

University for too many people is an excuse to have a few years of fun. I know this because I come from a middle class area where most of my friends went to university, not due to a fascination with the subject or a desire to increase job prospects but mostly because they wanted the university experience. The lack of apprenticeships for young people is lamentable, but maybe they (we) need to be more willing to take any job which comes along rather than assuming we deserve our dream job.

I agree with mike555, we are an incredibly indebted society. House prices are still far too high for anyone starting on the property ladder. This recession had a variety of causes, but one was the massive taking on of debt. People are now rationally saving their money, paying off debt and putting themselves on a secure financial footing, as is the government. I do not see how reinflating the bubbles of the past decade will make us richer.

@ Chris
Do you believe that the boom would have continued forever then? We have been through a classic bubble in the housing market and it was inevitably going to crash and no terrible thing. Why do we think rising house prices makes us richer?! A higher house price does not make us richer, it transfers around money from those without the houses to those with. Economic growth comes from human innovation producing new products and services at lower costs, that is what true economic growth is. Houses should be a place to live not an investment, artifically low interest set by the bank of England have largely caused this crisis.

Don Banks's picture

But what about all the immigrants supposedly taking British jobs, because employers allegedly claim that British studentsare too poorly educated? Something dosn't quite gel here.

mike555's picture

So what if massively overpriced houses might fall? About time. It is because consumers are so heavily indebted that people don't have so much money to spend. Any why are they so indebted - mainly thanks to the extraordinary increase in the cost of housing that occurred under New Labour.

So what is the answer? Yes, lets throw more money which we don't have at propping up the prohibitively expensive housing market at artificial levels. It was the borrow borrow spend spend culture that nearly brought the economy down, funny how some people seem to have forgotten already.

michaelpetek's picture

In what manner is a university education as capable as an apprenticeship to make a young person competitively marketable?

mike555's picture

@Chris

I don't want to see borrowers 'punished', I think we need a more neutral rate of interest, It's simply gone too far in favour of borrowers. This is not good in the long term.

I disagree with you, I think the vastly inflated housing market and consumer debt contributed largely to this crisis. I think artifically propping up the economy in this lop-sided state is just as damaging.

What I think is irrelevant anyway, you will get your continued 0.5% rates and they will print more funny money. Lets see where it gets us in the long run.

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