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No one can yet say how bad it is

Alex Brummer

Published 08 November 2007

The most worrying aspect of all this is how little the politicians and regulators knew of what was going on in the world of the major banks

These are nail-biting times for world economic policymakers. There is an illusion that through sound management our political and financial leaders can cancel the boom and bust of the economic cycle and overcome the forces of greed which drive markets.

This is being cruelly exposed by global financial markets as a myth.

The economic policymakers are doing their best. In the United States, Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has responded to Wall Street's calls for easier money by cutting headline interest rates by three-quarter of a point to 4.5 per cent since September in an effort to prevent the spread of the toxic debt problem, which began with America's trailer-park mortgages.

In Frankfurt, the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, pumped huge amounts of cash into the money markets to ease the strain.

Here, the Bank of England, with the authority of the Chancellor Alistair Darling, has so far pumped an extraordinary £23bn into the stricken mortgage lender Northern Rock - with which he incidentally has his own mortgage. It doesn't help that the Bank of England's governor, Mervyn King, and the Chancellor are at odds over who is to blame for the Rock fiasco. Darling is as helpless to deal with the credit crunch as Norman Lamont was at the time of Britain's expulsion from the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

Despite the fact that western leaders have, over the decades, put in place a host of institutional arrangements designed to pre-empt crisis - ranging from the Bank for International Settlements in Basle to the IMF in Washington - they have proved powerless in the face of global market eruptions.

All that finance ministers and the central bankers who command them can do is to behave like a clean-up crew after the event: forcing disclosure, improving regulation and punishing the wrongdoers.

Any hope that the tourniquet applied by central banks in August would stop the bleeding have been disappointed. Major banks from around the world have been confessing their sins. The noise from these admissions reached its peak on the first weekend of November when Charles Prince III fell on his sword at Citigroup, the world's largest bank, after it admitted to sitting on at least £3.1bn of bad debts and unveiled a 57 per cent fall in profits.

His departure came rapidly on the heels of the resignation of Stan O'Neal, the African-American chairman of Merrill Lynch, as well as the bosses of Wall Street house Bear Stearns and the Swiss bank UBS. The rapid departure of these bankers had nothing to do with the commands of elected politicians. It was the response of boards to the recognition that the executives they had put their faith in may have behaved irresponsibly.

The most worrying aspect of much of this is how little politicians and regulators knew of what was going on. Banks generally follow rules set by the Bank for International Settlements. This institution has been around since the end of the First World War when it was established to handle German reparations.

The Basle rules require banks to keep a proportion of their assets in cash and high-grade government securities, which can protect financial institutions from failure in times of crisis. But it also means that the funds tied up as capital cannot be used to fund loans when the world economy is expanding.

So, many of the banks came up with a neat wheeze. They established new-fangled funds known as "conduits" and "structured investment vehicles" or SIVs for short, which were run by the banks but not part of them. As they were hidden and "off balance sheet", there was no need to observe the Basle rules.

This is where, it turns out, many of the losses on subprime mortgages and other debts are located, out of reach of regulators. No wonder that the fearsome American regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission, is checking for illegality.

The uncertainty created by the decision of the US banks to come clean on these vehicles is what caused the latest fall in the shares of Barclays, Alliance & Leicester and other British banks. Nervousness, about their exposure to exotic debt and secret vehicles has been exacerbated by the swelling taxpayers' bill for Northern Rock.

Alistair Darling expresses hope that the Northern Rock crisis will be cleared up in a matter of weeks. The truth is that he doesn't know and conditions at the Newcastle lender are becoming worse; a large chunk of its mortgage book is now loss-making.

The train crash on financial markets is worsening and starting to damage high street spending and manufacturing investment. Financial leaders have only one weapon to deal with this - cutting interest rates. But it could take up to 18 months for the full benefits of such action to be felt.

Alex Brummer is City editor of the Daily Mail

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5 comments from readers

Carl Jones
08 November 2007 at 19:30

Alex, why would mere politicians and regulators know what is going on in the big banks? The last out going head of the FSA said in similar words that the City of London was as corrupt as ever.

If its not Enron, or Worldcom, its organised loan-sharks given the green light by Greenspan and Bush handing out tax cuts to the rich which bust Amerika couldn`t afford.

what are you on about..."trailer-park mortgages"? I talk to Americans and they tell me of $1,000,000 mortgages on wages of $30,000 (£15,000) and we have only had the first wave of subprime.

I was talking to a banker based in Dubia, he said the US had at most a couple of months to sort this mess out, otherwise it will go on for years. He also agreed that UK interest rate policy was more about helping the US with their debt, than managing the UK economy.

And as you say, policy will be to cut interest rates, but the REAL motivation behind this policy is to bail the US out of its debt troubles....the Doller will fall like a stone and hyperinflation could and most likely will sweep in.

taghioff.info
10 November 2007 at 03:38

The bankers didn't want to be watched and had the money to make it so.

Either you bring these people in under democratic control, or you face huge risks.

The same applies to fossil fuel extraction.

gnuneo
11 November 2007 at 23:04

agrees with taghioff.

we in the west have been sucked dry, and now the crows are huddling around our corpses.

looking to politicians, most of whom are entirely clueless, or are in the pay of those who have been chomping on our necks, is as stupid as expecting the influenza killing the AIDS sufferer to cure the AIDS itself.

does ANYONE really beleive that those who control the banking systems, actually weren't aware that there would come a day when the bills had to be paid?

deregulation, deregulation, deregulation - the mantra from the reagan/thatcher years, and all it has brought the 'common man' is woe, woe and more woe.

is it not curious those same 'deregulators' were also busy *increasing* regulations on their own citizenry, from the criminal justice act, to various 'anti-terrorism' legislation, ultimately to RFID cards and every street having a surveillance camera and now eavesdropping devices?

so now our banks collapse, followed by our stock markets, followed by our economies, followed by the few civil liberties we have left, such as parliamentary democracy?

ever looked at the history of Weimar?

and what replaced it?

...arthur c clarke got it wrong in 2001, actually the aliens came and cross-bred mankind with a lemming.

its time to wake up people, the cliff is approaching rapidly, but we don't *actually* have to jump over it!

sonicdeathmonkey
12 November 2007 at 22:48

Prem Sikka has been saying similar things for years but no-one in power listens to him, just as no-one in power reads this. This is because money is nationless. National trauma and economic downturns don't hurt the rich who can jet off to their "weekender" in Thailand or Costa Rica where they maintain a staff of a dozen penniless locals to lick the dust from their BMW X5s. The politicians are in their pockets too so don't expect any great turnaround in legislation. It always takes a disaster to get the elctorates attention and by then its too late and us ordinary people are all suffering.

sonicdeathmonkey
12 November 2007 at 22:50

Sorry- forgot the link to Prem SIkka's article. See his linked references.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/prem_sikka_/2007/10/left...

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About the writer

Alex Brummer

Alex Brummer is the City Editor of the Daily Mail and author of the acclaimed book The Crunch: How Greed and Incompetence Sparked the Credit Crisis. He previously worked at the Guardian where he was successively Foreign Editor, Financial Editor and Assistant Editor. Widely regarded as one of Britain's top financial journalists, he writes a column on economics for the New Statesman.

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