France falls into triple-dip recession

A bad end to a bad year for François Hollande.

The French economy has fallen into recession for the third time in four years, with official figures this morning showing a contraction of 0.2 per cent for the first quarter of 2013.

That's worse than forecasters expected, and follows another 0.2 per cent contraction in the last three months of 2012. The French statistical agency reports that the bulk of the contraction comes from a shrinking trade balance; while exports fell by 0.5 per cent, imports "reached stability", growing by just 0.1 per cent. At the same time, household consumption expenditure was "almost stable" – this time, the euphemism means "shrinking by 0.1 per cent".

These figures pile pressure on the French president François Hollande, whose left-wing approach to austerity – focused around tax rises on the rich, rather than spending cuts on the poor – has been beset by problems; today is the first anniversary of his election, and it's an ignominious way to mark it. With stagnation between the second and third quarters of 2012, the French economy is now 0.4 per cent smaller than it was when he took the job.

Elsewhere in Europe, Austria narrowly avoided recession – as narrow as can be, really, because GDP remained unchanged at 0.0 per cent after a contraction of 0.2 per cent last quarter – and the Czech Republic, which has been in recession for the last 5 quarters, contracted by 0.8 per cent.

Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

Photo: Getty
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Theresa May is paying the price for mismanaging Boris Johnson

The Foreign Secretary's bruised ego may end up destroying Theresa May. 

And to think that Theresa May scheduled her big speech for this Friday to make sure that Conservative party conference wouldn’t be dominated by the matter of Brexit. Now, thanks to Boris Johnson, it won’t just be her conference, but Labour’s, which is overshadowed by Brexit in general and Tory in-fighting in particular. (One imagines that the Labour leadership will find a way to cope somehow.)

May is paying the price for mismanaging Johnson during her period of political hegemony after she became leader. After he was betrayed by Michael Gove and lacking any particular faction in the parliamentary party, she brought him back from the brink of political death by making him Foreign Secretary, but also used her strength and his weakness to shrink his empire.

The Foreign Office had its responsibility for negotiating Brexit hived off to the newly-created Department for Exiting the European Union (Dexeu) and for navigating post-Brexit trade deals to the Department of International Trade. Johnson was given control of one of the great offices of state, but with no responsibility at all for the greatest foreign policy challenge since the Second World War.

Adding to his discomfort, the new Foreign Secretary was regularly the subject of jokes from the Prime Minister and cabinet colleagues. May likened him to a dog that had to be put down. Philip Hammond quipped about him during his joke-fuelled 2017 Budget. All of which gave Johnson’s allies the impression that Johnson-hunting was a licensed sport as far as Downing Street was concerned. He was then shut out of the election campaign and has continued to be a marginalised figure even as the disappointing election result forced May to involve the wider cabinet in policymaking.

His sense of exclusion from the discussions around May’s Florence speech only added to his sense of isolation. May forgot that if you aren’t going to kill, don’t wound: now, thanks to her lost majority, she can’t afford to put any of the Brexiteers out in the cold, and Johnson is once again where he wants to be: centre-stage. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.