PMI week: UK headed for slight growth in Q1 2013

Services sector saves the day.

The all-sectors PMI for March, released today by Markit Economics, has risen slightly from 50.7 in February to 50.9. Taken with January's recent peak of 51.7, it indicates a low level of growth throughout the first quarter of 2013 – not enough to cheer about, but enough to ensure that the Chancellor doesn't have to face the embarrassing prospect of standing up in the House of Commons and confirming that he has steered the country to a triple dip recession.

The PMI posts a result above 50 when the indications are that there has been expansion in the economy, and the higher the number, the greater the expansion. With the results hovering very close to 50 for the last quarter, any expected growth is likely to be minuscule, and Markit's chief economist, Chris Williamson, says the data is "consistent with a mere 0.1% quarterly increase in GDP". The PMI results track GDP relatively well, but there are always fluctuations, and so for the final results we will have to wait until the first estimate from the ONS, in two week's time.

If we do see growth, it will likely come entirely from the service sector, which has recovered well from the dip at the end of last year. The same cannot be said for construction, which has been negative for almost all of the last year, and manufacturing, which boomed last winter but has recently begun to contract again:

 

Looking further afield, Williamson says that:

[0.1 per cent] is clearly a far from satisfactory pace of growth, although anecdotal evidence from survey contributors indicated that poor weather has caused disruptions to many businesses in recent months, meaning the underlying recovery trend is likely to be stronger than the recent data suggest. We would therefore expect to see faster economic growth in the second quarter, barring any surprises such as a further worsening of the eurozone crisis or further severe weather.

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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