PMI week: UK headed for slight growth in Q1 2013

Services sector saves the day.

The all-sectors PMI for March, released today by Markit Economics, has risen slightly from 50.7 in February to 50.9. Taken with January's recent peak of 51.7, it indicates a low level of growth throughout the first quarter of 2013 – not enough to cheer about, but enough to ensure that the Chancellor doesn't have to face the embarrassing prospect of standing up in the House of Commons and confirming that he has steered the country to a triple dip recession.

The PMI posts a result above 50 when the indications are that there has been expansion in the economy, and the higher the number, the greater the expansion. With the results hovering very close to 50 for the last quarter, any expected growth is likely to be minuscule, and Markit's chief economist, Chris Williamson, says the data is "consistent with a mere 0.1% quarterly increase in GDP". The PMI results track GDP relatively well, but there are always fluctuations, and so for the final results we will have to wait until the first estimate from the ONS, in two week's time.

If we do see growth, it will likely come entirely from the service sector, which has recovered well from the dip at the end of last year. The same cannot be said for construction, which has been negative for almost all of the last year, and manufacturing, which boomed last winter but has recently begun to contract again:

 

Looking further afield, Williamson says that:

[0.1 per cent] is clearly a far from satisfactory pace of growth, although anecdotal evidence from survey contributors indicated that poor weather has caused disruptions to many businesses in recent months, meaning the underlying recovery trend is likely to be stronger than the recent data suggest. We would therefore expect to see faster economic growth in the second quarter, barring any surprises such as a further worsening of the eurozone crisis or further severe weather.

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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To stop Jeremy Corbyn, I am giving my second preference to Andy Burnham

The big question is whether Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper will face Jeremy in the final round of this election.

Voting is now underway in the Labour leadership election. There can be no doubt that Jeremy Corbyn is the frontrunner, but the race isn't over yet.

I know from conversations across the country that many voters still haven't made up their mind.

Some are drawn to Jeremy's promises of a new Jerusalem and endless spending, but worried that these endless promises, with no credibility, will only serve to lose us the next general election.

Others are certain that a Jeremy victory is really a win for Cameron and Osborne, but don't know who is the best alternative to vote for.

I am supporting Liz Kendall and will give her my first preference. But polling data is brutally clear: the big question is whether Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper will face Jeremy in the final round of this election.

Andy can win. He can draw together support from across the party, motivated by his history of loyalty to the Labour movement, his passionate appeal for unity in fighting the Tories, and the findings of every poll of the general public in this campaign that he is best placed candidate to win the next general election.

Yvette, in contrast, would lose to Jeremy Corbyn and lose heavily. Evidence from data collected by all the campaigns – except (apparently) Yvette's own – shows this. All publicly available polling shows the same. If Andy drops out of the race, a large part of the broad coalition he attracts will vote for Jeremy. If Yvette is knocked out, her support firmly swings behind Andy.

We will all have our views about the different candidates, but the real choice for our country is between a Labour government and the ongoing rightwing agenda of the Tories.

I am in politics to make a real difference to the lives of my constituents. We are all in the Labour movement to get behind the beliefs that unite all in our party.

In the crucial choice we are making right now, I have no doubt that a vote for Jeremy would be the wrong choice – throwing away the next election, and with it hope for the next decade.

A vote for Yvette gets the same result – her defeat by Jeremy, and Jeremy's defeat to Cameron and Osborne.

In the crucial choice between Yvette and Andy, Andy will get my second preference so we can have the best hope of keeping the fight for our party alive, and the best hope for the future of our country too.

Tom Blenkinsop is the Labour MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland