Growth estimate stays firm at -0.3 per cent

Consumption increased by 0.4%.

The ONS reports that its final estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2012 holds steady at -0.3 per cent:

  • UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have decreased by 0.3% between the third and fourth quarter of 2012, unrevised from the previous publication. In current prices GDP was also estimated to have decreased by 0.3% for the same period.

  • Household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.4% in volume terms in the latest quarter revised up from the 0.2% increase previously estimated.s

  • Among the main contributors to the decrease in GDP in the latest quarter were gross fixed capital formation which fell by 0.2% in volume terms and the £6.0 billion net trade deficit, which follows a £5.3 billion net trade deficit in the previous quarter.

The details of the release don't elaborate much more. Services output was flat, and industrial production fell by 2.1 per cent, the biggest since Q1 2009. Construction grew, however, by 0.8 per cent. We'll find out more next month, when the first estimates of growth for Q1 2013 come out.

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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Why relations between Theresa May and Philip Hammond became tense so quickly

The political imperative of controlling immigration is clashing with the economic imperative of maintaining growth. 

There is no relationship in government more important than that between the prime minister and the chancellor. When Theresa May entered No.10, she chose Philip Hammond, a dependable technocrat and long-standing ally who she had known since Oxford University. 

But relations between the pair have proved far tenser than anticipated. On Wednesday, Hammond suggested that students could be excluded from the net migration target. "We are having conversations within government about the most appropriate way to record and address net migration," he told the Treasury select committee. The Chancellor, in common with many others, has long regarded the inclusion of students as an obstacle to growth. 

The following day Hammond was publicly rebuked by No.10. "Our position on who is included in the figures has not changed, and we are categorically not reviewing whether or not students are included," a spokesman said (as I reported in advance, May believes that the public would see this move as "a fix"). 

This is not the only clash in May's first 100 days. Hammond was aggrieved by the Prime Minister's criticisms of loose monetary policy (which forced No.10 to state that it "respects the independence of the Bank of England") and is resisting tougher controls on foreign takeovers. The Chancellor has also struck a more sceptical tone on the UK's economic prospects. "It is clear to me that the British people did not vote on June 23 to become poorer," he declared in his conference speech, a signal that national prosperity must come before control of immigration. 

May and Hammond's relationship was never going to match the remarkable bond between David Cameron and George Osborne. But should relations worsen it risks becoming closer to that beween Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling. Like Hammond, Darling entered the Treasury as a calm technocrat and an ally of the PM. But the extraordinary circumstances of the financial crisis transformed him into a far more assertive figure.

In times of turmoil, there is an inevitable clash between political and economic priorities. As prime minister, Brown resisted talk of cuts for fear of the electoral consequences. But as chancellor, Darling was more concerned with the bottom line (backing a rise in VAT). By analogy, May is focused on the political imperative of controlling immigration, while Hammond is focused on the economic imperative of maintaining growth. If their relationship is to endure far tougher times they will soon need to find a middle way. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.