Focus on a "triple dip" misses the point

The economy is stuck and without a change in government policy the slump is set to continue, writes the TUC's Duncan Weldon.

Will the UK economy experience a triple dip recession?

The simple answer is that I simply don’t know. The more honest answer is that I don’t really think it matters. Today’s industrial production figures certainly point towards one, but last week’s PMI surveys’ suggest growth of 0.1 per cent.

In reality whilst a triple dip would no doubt generate many headlines, the difference between a Q1 GDP figure -0.1 per cent and one of +0.1 per cent is pretty unimportant, especially as the figures are subject to revision for years afterwards.

The bigger picture is that the UK’s recent economic performance has been disastrous.

Whether compared to the original forecasts (on which fiscal policy is still based), to our international peers or to our own historical experience, this has been an extremely weak recovery.

The much-hoped for rebalancing has simply not occurred. Today’s industrial production statistics tell us that industrial output is now back to 1992 levels. Business investment grew by 0.4% last year against an original forecast of 10.0%.  Net trade subtracted from growth.

The government expected growth of 2.3% in 2011 and 2.8% in 2012, with two thirds of that coming from an increase in business investment and an improvement in net trade. Instead we got neither the growth nor the rebalancing.

The result has been missed fiscal targets and a downgraded credit rating.

Real wage falls, coupled with changes to the tax credit and social security system, have given us the longest squeeze in living standards in modern British economic history.

The labour market is hailed as ‘good news; but as important research from the Resolution Foundation today demonstrates, we still face a job gap of 850,000 to get back to pre-crisis levels of employment.

Productivity growth has collapsed, risking a longer term impact on living standards and growth.

And despite all of the government’s rhetoric on the UK being in a ‘global race’ – whether you measure it by growth, exports, manufacturing output or living standards, the UK is falling behind the other leading economies.

Against a backdrop of terrible growth, no rebalancing, a living standards squeeze, a weak labour market and productivity falls, the difference between a small  contraction in Q1 and some small growth in Q1 doesn’t seem very important.

The economy is stuck and without a change in government policy the slump is set to continue.

This piece was originally published at ToUChstone, and is republished here with permission.

Cars roll off the production line, but fewer than before. Photograph: Getty Images

Duncan Weldon is a senior policy officer at the Trades Union Congress. He blogs for them at Touchstone.

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Meet Anne Marie Waters - the Ukip politician too extreme for Nigel Farage

In January 2016, Waters launched Pegida UK with former EDL frontman Steven Yaxley-Lennon (aka Tommy Robinson). 

There are few people in British political life who can be attacked from the left by Nigel Farage. Yet that is where Anne Marie Waters has found herself. And by the end of September she could well be the new leader of Ukip, a party almost synonymous with its beer-swilling, chain-smoking former leader.

Waters’s political journey is a curious one. She started out on the political left, but like Oswald Mosley before her, has since veered dramatically to the right. That, however, is where the similarities end. Waters is Irish, agnostic, a lesbian and a self-proclaimed feminist.

But it is her politics – rather than who she is – that have caused a stir among Ukip’s old guard. Former leader Paul Nuttall has said that her views make him “uncomfortable” while Farage has claimed Ukip is “finished” if, under her leadership, it becomes an anti-Islam party.

In her rhetoric, Waters echoes groups such as the English Defence League (EDL) and Britain First. She has called Islam “evil” and her leadership manifesto claims that the religion has turned Britain into a “fearful and censorious society”. Waters wants the banning of the burqa, the closure of all sharia councils and a temporary freeze on all immigration.

She started life in Dublin before moving to Germany in her teens to work as an au pair. Waters also lived in the Netherlands before returning to Britain to study journalism at Nottingham Trent University, graduating in 2003. She subsequently gained a second degree in law. It was then, she says, that she first learnt about Islam, which she claims treats women “like absolute dirt”. Now 39, Waters is a full-time campaigner who lives in Essex with her two dogs and her partner who is an accountant.

Waters’s first spell of serious activism was with the campaign group One Law for All, a secularist organisation fronted by the Iranian feminist and human rights activist Maryam Namazie. Waters resigned in November 2013 after four years with the organisation. According to Namazie, Waters left due to political disagreements over whether the group should collaborate with members of far-right groups.

In April 2014, Waters founded Sharia Watch UK and, in January 2016, she launched Pegida UK with former EDL frontman Steven Yaxley-Lennon (aka Tommy Robinson). The group was established as a British chapter of the German-based organisation and was set up to counter what it called the “Islamisation of our countries”. By the summer of 2016, it had petered out.

Waters twice stood unsuccessfully to become a Labour parliamentary candidate. Today, she says she could not back Labour due to its “betrayal of women” and “betrayal of the country” over Islam. After joining Ukip in 2014, she first ran for political office in the Lambeth council election, where she finished in ninth place. At the 2015 general election, Waters stood as the party’s candidate in Lewisham East, finishing third with 9.1 per cent of the vote. She was chosen to stand again in the 2016 London Assembly elections but was deselected after her role in Pegida UK became public. Waters was also prevented from standing in Lewisham East at the 2017 general election after Ukip’s then-leader Nuttall publicly intervened.

The current favourite of the 11 candidates standing to succeed Nuttall is deputy leader Peter Whittle, with Waters in second. Some had hoped the party’s top brass would ban her from standing but last week its national executive approved her campaign.

Due to an expected low turnout, the leadership contest is unpredictable. Last November, Nuttall was elected with just 9,622 votes. More than 1,000 new members reportedly joined Ukip in a two-week period earlier this year, prompting fears of far-right entryism.

Mike Hookem MEP has resigned as Ukip’s deputy whip over Waters’ candidacy, saying he would not “turn a blind eye” to extremism. By contrast, chief whip, MEP Stuart Agnew, is a supporter and has likened her to Joan of Arc. Waters is also working closely on her campaign with Jack Buckby, a former BNP activist and one of the few candidates to run against Labour in the by-election for Jo Cox’s former seat of Batley and Spen. Robinson is another backer.

Peculiarly for someone running to be the leader of a party, Waters does not appear to relish public attention. “I’m not a limelight person,” she recently told the Times. “I don’t like being phoned all the time.”

The journalist Jamie Bartlett, who was invited to the initial launch of Pegida UK in Luton in 2015, said of Waters: “She failed to remember the date of the demo. Her head lolled, her words were slurred, and she appeared to almost fall asleep while Tommy [Robinson] was speaking. After 10 minutes it all ground to an uneasy halt.”

In an age when authenticity is everything, it would be a mistake to underestimate yet another unconventional politician. But perhaps British Muslims shouldn’t panic about Anne Marie Waters just yet.

James Bloodworth is editor of Left Foot Forward

This article first appeared in the 17 August 2017 issue of the New Statesman, Trump goes nuclear