File this one away in the "we'll see" pile

An exodus after the election?

The chief executive of deVere Group, "the world’s largest independent financial advisory firm", wants you to know that this time, rich people really mean it when they say they'll leave the country this time if taxes go up. Nick Green says:

The astute number crunchers at the Institute for Fiscal Studies have shown that the government will have little alternative but to borrow more or increase taxes to pay for the Chancellor’s budget. As this is after an election, a time when MPs can more afford to take controversial measures, it is highly probable that the new government would opt for the former [sic, but I think he means latter] – taxes would be hiked up…

As so-called ‘high tax Britain’ is set to become ‘even higher tax Britain’, I would fully expect there to be something of a wealth exodus from the UK as wealthy Brits and non-domiciled taxpayers in the UK seek to move themselves and assets to lower-tax jurisdictions in order to safeguard their funds.

We've already had that argument, of course. After the 50p tax was introduced, there was a drop in the number of bankers fleeing to Switzerland, with the majority of avoidance taking the form of bringing forward payments (which is part of the reason why cutting the rate so soon was a stupid idea – that's not a trick you can perform twice). And we'll see what happens from 1 April, but I'll be we don't get an exodus of bankers from Switzerland to Britain once the 50p tax dies either.

File this one away for the future, in other words – it could make tasty claim chowder.

 

Boarding the private jet… Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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The SNP thinks it knows how to kill hard Brexit

The Supreme Court ruled MPs must have a say in triggering Article 50. But the opposition must unite to succeed. 

For a few minutes on Tuesday morning, the crowd in the Supreme Court listened as the verdict was read out. Parliament must have the right to authorise the triggering of Article 50. The devolved nations would not get a veto. 

There was a moment of silence. And then the opponents of hard Brexit hit the phones. 

For the Scottish government, the pro-Remain members of the Welsh Assembly and Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland, the victory was bittersweet. 

The ruling prompted Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, to ask: “Is it better that we take our future into our own hands?”

Ever the pragmatist, though, Sturgeon has simultaneously released her Westminster attack dogs. 

Within minutes of the ruling, the SNP had vowed to put forward 50 amendments (see what they did there) to UK government legislation before Article 50 is enacted. 

This includes the demand for a Brexit white paper – shared by MPs from all parties – to a clause designed to prevent the UK reverting to World Trade Organisation rules if a deal is not agreed. 

But with Labour planning to approve the triggering of Article 50, can the SNP cause havoc with the government’s plans, or will it simply be a chorus of disapproval in the rest of Parliament’s ear?

The SNP can expect some support. Individual SNP MPs have already successfully worked with Labour MPs on issues such as benefit cuts. Pro-Remain Labour backbenchers opposed to Article 50 will not rule out “holding hands with the devil to cross the bridge”, as one insider put it. The sole Green MP, Caroline Lucas, will consider backing SNP amendments she agrees with as well as tabling her own. 

But meanwhile, other opposition parties are seeking their own amendments. Jeremy Corbyn said Labour will seek amendments to stop the Conservatives turning the UK “into a bargain basement tax haven” and is demanding tariff-free access to the EU. 

Separately, the Liberal Democrats are seeking three main amendments – single market membership, rights for EU nationals and a referendum on the deal, which is a “red line”.

Meanwhile, pro-Remain Tory backbenchers are watching their leadership closely to decide how far to stray from the party line. 

But if the Article 50 ruling has woken Parliament up, the initial reaction has been chaotic rather than collaborative. Despite the Lib Dems’ position as the most UK-wide anti-Brexit voice, neither the SNP nor Labour managed to co-ordinate with them. 

Indeed, the Lib Dems look set to vote against Labour’s tariff-free amendment on the grounds it is not good enough, while expecting Labour to vote against their demand of membership of the single market. 

The question for all opposition parties is whether they can find enough amendments to agree on to force the government onto the defensive. Otherwise, this defeat for the government is hardly a defeat at all. 

 

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.