Japan "nationalises" industrial stock

State capitalism, or unconventional fiscal policy?

The latest in the annals of unconventional economic measures, by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph:

Japan's government is to take the unprecedented step of buying factories and machinery directly with taxpayer funds, the latest in a series of radical steps to lift the country out of its deep slump.

Premier Shinzo Abe is to spend up to one trillion yen (£7.1bn) buying plant in the electronics, equipment, and carbon fibre industries to force the pace of investment, according to Nikkei news.

This move comes after Abe was elected on a platform of forcing the Bank of Japan to do more monetary easing. That plan was partially an attempt to influence monetary policy – already a bold reversal of the traditional political neutrality of central banks – and partially an attempt to secure further income for the state to use in fiscal expansion.

Some of that expansion has now taken place in the pseudo-nationalisation of industrial assets. The idea is that Japan hasn't just suffered from a paucity of public investment, but also of private investment. By buying up high-quality capital goods (factories, machinery and so on), the Japanese government hopes to be able to provide that private investment directly. It would then lease the new assets back to troubled firms, allowing them all the benefits of investment with none of the downsides.

Ideally, what happens next is companies with new plants experience a boost in productivity, which leads to a boost in Japanese nominal GDP.

Of course, it will be hard to distinguish between that boost, and the similar boost which comes from the fact that this is, at least in part, state aid to industry.

Shinzo Abe. Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

Photo: Getty
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Who will win the Copeland by-election?

Labour face a tricky task in holding onto the seat. 

What’s the Copeland by-election about? That’s the question that will decide who wins it.

The Conservatives want it to be about the nuclear industry, which is the seat’s biggest employer, and Jeremy Corbyn’s long history of opposition to nuclear power.

Labour want it to be about the difficulties of the NHS in Cumbria in general and the future of West Cumberland Hospital in particular.

Who’s winning? Neither party is confident of victory but both sides think it will be close. That Theresa May has visited is a sign of the confidence in Conservative headquarters that, win or lose, Labour will not increase its majority from the six-point lead it held over the Conservatives in May 2015. (It’s always more instructive to talk about vote share rather than raw numbers, in by-elections in particular.)

But her visit may have been counterproductive. Yes, she is the most popular politician in Britain according to all the polls, but in visiting she has added fuel to the fire of Labour’s message that the Conservatives are keeping an anxious eye on the outcome.

Labour strategists feared that “the oxygen” would come out of the campaign if May used her visit to offer a guarantee about West Cumberland Hospital. Instead, she refused to answer, merely hyping up the issue further.

The party is nervous that opposition to Corbyn is going to supress turnout among their voters, but on the Conservative side, there is considerable irritation that May’s visit has made their task harder, too.

Voters know the difference between a by-election and a general election and my hunch is that people will get they can have a free hit on the health question without risking the future of the nuclear factory. That Corbyn has U-Turned on nuclear power only helps.

I said last week that if I knew what the local paper would look like between now and then I would be able to call the outcome. Today the West Cumbria News & Star leads with Downing Street’s refusal to answer questions about West Cumberland Hospital. All the signs favour Labour. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.