PMI data reinforces tale of three economies

Good, bad, worse in the US, UK and EU.

Today's Markit PMIs (standard reminder: purchasing managers at companies surveyed, aggregated into an index showing activity across the economy, normalised so that 50=no change) highlight the discrepancy between the Eurozone economy (still contracting, albeit less each month than it has been for the better part of a year) and the US economy (which is growing, and growing faster most months).

(Today's releases are the "flash" PMIs, compiled from the first 85 per cent or so of managers to respond; they are thus to be taken with a larger pinch of salt than normal)

The Eurozone composite PMI – covering services and manufacturing – rose slightly to 47.3. This is a nine-month high, but still represents moderate contraction of GDP:

 

Even worse is the manufacturing data. Again a nine-month high, it now stands at 46.3, and rose by just 0.1 from November.

Compare that figure with the US, where the manufacturing PMI showed a sharp increase to 54.2, signifying healthy expansion:

As ever, the UK data lies somewhere between the two:

The UK is undergoing a renewed bout of economic weakness as it heads towards the end of 2012. The all-sector Output Index from the three PMI surveys rose from 49.7 in October to 50.2 in November, edging above the 50.0 no change mark. However, despite the increase, the latest reading was the third-weakest since April 2009 and consistent with the economy sliding back into contraction after the temporary growth surge seen in the third quarter.

The UK data also highlights the folly of relying too much on the PMI information to predict economic performance, though. All through the double-dip recession, commentators were insisting, based on the strength of PMI data, that the ONS was mistaken. And even as it fell to new lows, the ONS recorded the massive growth of last quarter.

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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Brexit campaign publishes private phone numbers of Eurosceptic rivals

Leave.EU hate the EU and hate Vote Leave who also hate the EU. What could go wrong?

Remember Leave.EU? Not to be confused with Vote Leave, which is the pro-Brexit group led by one of the former mayors with Hitler tourettes, or with Grassroots Out, which was the group with the neon green ties, or with UKIP. Even though Grassroots Out, UKIP and Leave.EU are all funded by Arron Banks, a multi-millionaire with interests in the British Virgin Islands who lives in a mansion once owned by the prog rock musician Mike Oldfield. Glad that’s all clear.

Anyway, Leave.EU still exists, even after Vote Leave was designated as the official Leave campaign – spending more of its time attacking the conduct, tactics and key figures of Vote Leave rather than, you know, that big EU thing they’re supposed to hate so much.

One of their main sources of frustration is Vote Leave’s refusal to have UKIP leader Nigel Farage as its representative in any of the EU debates. So, obviously, rather than pressing their case through normal channels, Leave.EU did what any respectable organisation would, and emailed the private phone numbers of senior figures at the BBC and Vote Leave out to its entire mailing list.

Which, needless to say, upset those people. Douglas Carswell sent a message asking for his number to be removed, so of course Leave.EU published that too.

No wonder the Brexiters are so opposed to international cooperation when they can’t even keep the peace on their own side. 

I'm a mole, innit.