The 2013 Oscars: full list of winners and nominees

A great night for Argo, Daniel Day-Lewis, Anne Hathaway, Jennifer Lawrence and Ang Lee.

Best Picture

Beast of the Southern Wild
Zero Dark Thirty
Amour
Argo
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained

Best Actor 

Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts - The Impossible

Best Supporting Actor

Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin - Argo
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Amy Adams - The Master

Best Director

Life of Pi - Ang Lee
Amour - Michael Haneke
Lincoln - Steven Spielberg
Silver Linings Playbook - David O Russell
Beasts of the Southern Wild - Behn Zeitlin

Best Original Screenplay

John Gatins - Flight
Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained - Quentin Tarantino
Moonrise Kingdom - Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
Amour - Written by Michael Haneke

Best Adapted Screenplay

Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Chris Terrio - Argo
Tony Kushner - Lincoln
David O'Russell - Silver Linings PLaybook
David Magee - Life of Pi

Best Original Score

Before My Time - Chasing Ice, Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
Pi's Lullaby - Life of Pi, Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
Suddenly - Les Miserable, Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublils
Everybody Needs a Best Friend - Ted, Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
Skyfall - from Skyfall - Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth

Best Foreign Language Film

Amour
NO
War Witch
A Royal Affair
Kon Tiki

Best Documentary Feature

5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Best Documentary Short Feature 

Inocente - Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
Kings Point - Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
Mondays at Racine - Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
Open Heart - Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern
Redemption - Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill

Best Short Film (Live Action)

Asad Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
Buzkashi Boys - Sam French and Ariel Nasr
Curfew - Shawn Christensen
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw) - Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
Henry - Yan England

Best Make-up and Hairstyling

Hitchcock - Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
Les Misérables - Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnells

Best Costume Design

Anna Karenina - Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables - Paco Delgado
Lincoln - Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror - Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman - Colleen Atwood

Best Visual Effects

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
Life of Pi: Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
Marvel's The Avengers - Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
Prometheus - Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
Snow White and the Huntsman - Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson

Best Cinematography

Django Unchained - Robert Richardson
Anna Karenina - Seamus McGarvey
Lincoln - Janusz Kaminski
Life of Pi - Claudio Miranda
Skyfall - Roger Deakins

Best Animated Feature Film

Frankenweenie
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck it Ralph
ParaNorman
Brave

Best Short Film (Animated)

Adam and Dog - Minkyu Lee
Fresh Guacamole - PES
Head over Heels - Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly
Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare" David Silverman
Paperman - John Kahrs

An Oscars statue at the 85th Annual Academy Awards. Photograph: Getty Images
OLIVER BURSTON
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How science and statistics are taking over sport

An ongoing challenge for analysts is to disentangle genuine skill from chance events. Some measurements are more useful than others.

In the mid-1990s, statistics undergraduates at Lancaster University were asked to analyse goal-scoring in a hypothetical football match. When Mark Dixon, a researcher in the department, heard about the task, he grew curious. The analysis employed was a bit simplistic, but with a few tweaks it could become a powerful tool. Along with his fellow statistician Stuart Coles, he expanded the methods, and in doing so transformed how researchers – and gamblers – think about football.

The UK has always lagged behind the US when it comes to the mathematical analysis of sport. This is partly because of a lack of publicly available match data, and partly because of the structure of popular sports. A game such as baseball, with its one-on-one contests between pitcher and batter, can be separated into distinct events. Football is far messier, with a jumble of clashes affecting the outcome. It is also relatively low-scoring, in contrast to baseball or basketball – further reducing the number of notable events. Before Dixon and Coles came along, analysts such as Charles Reep had even concluded that “chance dominates the game”, making predictions all but impossible.

Successful prediction is about locating the right degree of abstraction. Strip away too much detail and the analysis becomes unrealistic. Include too many processes and it becomes hard to pin them down without vast amounts of data. The trick is to distil reality into key components: “As simple as possible, but no simpler,” as Einstein put it.

Dixon and Coles did this by focusing on three factors – attacking and defensive ability for each team, plus the fabled “home advantage”. With ever more datasets now available, betting syndicates and sports analytics firms are developing these ideas further, even including individual players in the analysis. This requires access to a great deal of computing power. Betting teams are hiring increasing numbers of science graduates, with statisticians putting together predictive models and computer scientists developing high-speed software.

But it’s not just betters who are turning to statistics. Many of the techniques are also making their way into sports management. Baseball led the way, with quantitative Moneyball tactics taking the Oakland Athletics to the play-offs in 2002 and 2003, but other sports are adopting scientific methods, too. Premier League football teams have gradually built up analytics departments in recent years, and all now employ statisticians. After winning the 2016 Masters, the golfer Danny Willett thanked the new analytics firm 15th Club, an offshoot of the football consultancy 21st Club.

Bringing statistics into sport has many advantages. First, we can test out common folklore. How big, say, is the “home advantage”? According to Ray Stefani, a sports researcher, it depends: rugby union teams, on average, are 25 per cent more likely to win than to lose at home. In NHL ice hockey, this advantage is only 10 per cent. Then there is the notion of “momentum”, often cited by pundits. Can a few good performances give a weaker team the boost it needs to keep winning? From baseball to football, numerous studies suggest it’s unlikely.

Statistical models can also help measure player quality. Teams typically examine past results before buying players, though it is future performances that count. What if a prospective signing had just enjoyed a few lucky games, or been propped up by talented team-mates? An ongoing challenge for analysts is to disentangle genuine skill from chance events. Some measurements are more useful than others. In many sports, scoring goals is subject to a greater degree of randomness than creating shots. When the ice hockey analyst Brian King used this information to identify the players in his local NHL squad who had profited most from sheer luck, he found that these were also the players being awarded new contracts.

Sometimes it’s not clear how a specific skill should be measured. Successful defenders – whether in British or American football – don’t always make a lot of tackles. Instead, they divert attacks by being in the right position. It is difficult to quantify this. When evaluating individual performances, it can be useful to estimate how well a team would have done without a particular player, which can produce surprising results.

The season before Gareth Bale moved from Tottenham Hotspur to Real Madrid for a record £85m in 2013, the sports consultancy Onside Analysis looked at which players were more important to the team: whose absence would cause most disruption? Although Bale was the clear star, it was actually the midfielder Moussa Dembélé who had the greatest impact on results.

As more data is made available, our ability to measure players and their overall performance will improve. Statistical models cannot capture everything. Not only would complete understanding of sport be dull – it would be impossible. Analytics groups know this and often employ experts to keep their models grounded in reality.

There will never be a magic formula that covers all aspects of human behaviour and psychology. However, for the analysts helping teams punch above their weight and the scientific betting syndicates taking on the bookmakers, this is not the aim. Rather, analytics is one more way to get an edge. In sport, as in betting, the best teams don’t get it right every time. But they know how to win more often than their opponents. 

Adam Kucharski is author of The Perfect Bet: How Science and Maths are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling (Profile Books)

This article first appeared in the 28 April 2016 issue of the New Statesman, The new fascism