Chart of the Day: Inflation falls

CPI and RPI both drop by 0.2 points

Thanks largely to lower water, gas and electricity bills, inflation in the UK continued to fall in February, according to new figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The consumer price index (CPI) - a measure used to gauge inflation rates across the European Union - dipped in the UK to 3.4 per cent last month, a decrease from 3.6 per cent in January. The Bank of England's target for inflation is 2 per cent on the CPI measure.

A large upward effect came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear, furniture and household equipment.

The CPI stands at 121.8 in February 2012 (based on 2005=100).

The retail price index in the UK was 3.7 per cent in February, a decrease of 3.9 per cent. This was mainly due to downward pressures from fuel and light and motoring expenditure, while upward pressure came from alcoholic drinks.

The all-goods index is 189.9 in February, up from 186.7 the previous month. The RPI stood at 239.9 in February (based on January 1987=100).

David Page, an economist at Lloyds told the Financial Times:

We are no longer especially confident that inflation will slow back to, never mind below, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee’s 2 per cent target over the medium term.

Sylvia Waycot of the financial information service Moneyfacts told the BBC:

It's just a bit too early for everyone to burst into a chorus of 'Don't worry, be happy', as today's figures still mean that there are only 79 accounts out of 1,126 that negate both inflation and the taxman’s cut.


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How can Britain become a nation of homeowners?

David Cameron must unlock the spirit of his postwar predecessors to get the housing market back on track. 

In the 1955 election, Anthony Eden described turning Britain into a “property-owning democracy” as his – and by extension, the Conservative Party’s – overarching mission.

60 years later, what’s changed? Then, as now, an Old Etonian sits in Downing Street. Then, as now, Labour are badly riven between left and right, with their last stay in government widely believed – by their activists at least – to have been a disappointment. Then as now, few commentators seriously believe the Tories will be out of power any time soon.

But as for a property-owning democracy? That’s going less well.

When Eden won in 1955, around a third of people owned their own homes. By the time the Conservative government gave way to Harold Wilson in 1964, 42 per cent of households were owner-occupiers.

That kicked off a long period – from the mid-50s right until the fall of the Berlin Wall – in which home ownership increased, before staying roughly flat at 70 per cent of the population from 1991 to 2001.

But over the course of the next decade, for the first time in over a hundred years, the proportion of owner-occupiers went to into reverse. Just 64 percent of households were owner-occupier in 2011. No-one seriously believes that number will have gone anywhere other than down by the time of the next census in 2021. Most troublingly, in London – which, for the most part, gives us a fairly accurate idea of what the demographics of Britain as a whole will be in 30 years’ time – more than half of households are now renters.

What’s gone wrong?

In short, property prices have shot out of reach of increasing numbers of people. The British housing market increasingly gets a failing grade at “Social Contract 101”: could someone, without a backstop of parental or family capital, entering the workforce today, working full-time, seriously hope to retire in 50 years in their own home with their mortgage paid off?

It’s useful to compare and contrast the policy levers of those two Old Etonians, Eden and Cameron. Cameron, so far, has favoured demand-side solutions: Help to Buy and the new Help to Buy ISA.

To take the second, newer of those two policy innovations first: the Help to Buy ISA. Does it work?

Well, if you are a pre-existing saver – you can’t use the Help to Buy ISA for another tax year. And you have to stop putting money into any existing ISAs. So anyone putting a little aside at the moment – not going to feel the benefit of a Help to Buy ISA.

And anyone solely reliant on a Help to Buy ISA – the most you can benefit from, if you are single, it is an extra three grand from the government. This is not going to shift any houses any time soon.

What it is is a bung for the only working-age demographic to have done well out of the Coalition: dual-earner couples with no children earning above average income.

What about Help to Buy itself? At the margins, Help to Buy is helping some people achieve completions – while driving up the big disincentive to home ownership in the shape of prices – and creating sub-prime style risks for the taxpayer in future.

Eden, in contrast, preferred supply-side policies: his government, like every peacetime government from Baldwin until Thatcher’s it was a housebuilding government.

Why are house prices so high? Because there aren’t enough of them. The sector is over-regulated, underprovided, there isn’t enough housing either for social lets or for buyers. And until today’s Conservatives rediscover the spirit of Eden, that is unlikely to change.

I was at a Conservative party fringe (I was on the far left, both in terms of seating and politics).This is what I said, minus the ums, the ahs, and the moment my screensaver kicked in.

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.