The Global Submarine Market 2011â€“2021
Rising maritime threats such as piracy, transnational terrorism and growing demand to protect sea lanes and communication lines are also important factors behind the desire for a strong submarine capability in the region.
The market will be characterized by increasing collaboration between firms and countries and the increasing modularity of design to meet the varied roles of modern submarines. Varying mission profiles has resulted in the adaptation of a flexible payload to effectively deal with varying threats.
The decrease in demand in the mature market in the West and the increasing demand from the rest of the world, which has limited industrial capability but stable financial growth, has led to growing license production through technology transfer agreements, a trend that is expected to increase.
State of the global market
Submarines form an essential core of todayâ€™s naval fleets as a result of their flexible mission capabilities and ability to complement other strategic resources. Worldwide, 41 countries possess submarine capability and together operate 450 submarines.
Most of these nations are modernizing their fleets or increasing them as a result of changing security situations. A total of 154 submarines are to be procured over the forecast period, costing in excess of $180 billion.
Increasing procurement of submarines in Asia-Pacific
The rise of regional powers with ambitions for power projection coupled with a growing sense of hostility and a resulting arms race in Asia-Pacific is driving the submarine market. The need to replace a Soviet era submarine fleet, rising maritime threats such as piracy, transnational terrorism and growing demands to protect sea lanes and communication lines are also important factors behind the desire for a strong submarine capability.
New market trends
The reduction in defense budgets in the Western world combined with changes in the global strategic security situation and the advent of sophisticated technology has brought about an immense change to the submarine market. Rising economic powers such as China, Brazil and India and their neighbors will increase expenditure on acquiring submarines and on developing the necessary submarine industrial base.
The overall reduction in submarine orders in the West have forced the industry to reinvent the production process, turning to modular production processes and cutting down on manufacturing cost and time. The increasing cost of technology development and its rapidly changing nature has driven the submarine industrial base to adapt to modular and flexible systems architecture, which has long term benefits such as ease of upgrade installation and through life support. It also helps to easily switch between various mission profiles by swapping modules. Varying mission profiles has in turn resulted in the adaptation of a flexible payload to effectively deal with varying threats.
Increased collaboration and consolidation
The above factors have led to increasing collaboration amongst the submarine industrial base (SIB) present within a country. The decrease in demand in the West, which has a mature SIB, and the increasing demand from the rest of the world, which has limited industrial capability but stable financial growth, has resulted in cross border consolidation. The political will and limited restrictions in transferring sensitive technology have also led to growing license production through technology transfer agreements, a trend that is expected to increase.
Conventional attack submarine market
Over 100 SSKs are to be built across the globe over the forecast period. Major markets for SSKs include Brazil, India, Turkey and Vietnam, which have planned procurements in place. A new technical development in SSKs is the adoption of Air Independent Propulsion systems.
Nuclear ballistic submarine market
A total of 16 SSBNs are planned to be procured during the forecast period at a value of US$56.7 billion, which includes the cost of R&D of the US SSBN (X) and the UKâ€™s SSBN (R) program. Despite the low numbers of SSBNs being acquired, it is forecast to be the second largest submarine market between 2011 and 2021.