The research firm forecasts that over the next decade, the PD drug market will be constrained by generic competition to key therapies.

Most sales will continue to be driven by the leading dopamine agonists, pramipexole and ropinirole, and by increasing use of the MAO-B inhibitor Azilect/Agilect, as well as by the reentry of UCB/Schwarz Pharma’s Neupro/Leganto to the US market and its wider use in Europe, said the research firm.

Despite some key current therapies experiencing increased uptake during the forecast period and the launch of three new agents by 2020, sales of current agents and the market impact of emerging therapies will be offset by generic competition.

Through 2020, the key PD therapies that will lose patent protection are Novartis/Orion Pharma’s Comtan/Comtess/Stalevo and Teva Pharmaceuticals/Lundbeck’s Azilect/Agilect, while ropinirole (GSK’s  Requip, generics; GSK/SkyePharma’s Requip XL/LP/RP/Modutab/Prolib, generics) and pramipexole (Boehringer Ingelheim’s Mirapex/Mirapexin/Sifrol/BI-Sifrol, generics; Mirapex ER/Mirapexin ER/Sifrol Retard) will face increasing generic competition.

The three emerging therapies set to launch through 2020 are Impax Laboratories/GSK’s IPX-066, a reformulation of the mainstay of PD therapy, levodopa (multiple brands, generics), Merck Serono/EMD Serono/Newron’s MAO-B inhibitor safinamide and Kyowa Hakko Kirin’s adenosine A2A receptor antagonist istradefylline. IPX-066, and to a lesser extent safinamide, will contribute moderately to market growth, as both will contend with established agents within the same respective drug classes (which are often generically available), and that are commonly used in the patient populations targeted by the emerging therapies.

The first-in-class agent istradefylline will benefit from use in the management of motor response complications arising from levodopa treatment, but its overall impact will be modest as it is currently expected to launch only in Japan.

Decision Resources analyst Nadja Rozovsky said: "As we do not expect major shifts in the treatment paradigm of Parkinson’s disease over the next ten years, by 2020, the genericization of several key Parkinson’s disease therapies will depress market growth. Future therapies will need to clearly demonstrate superiority over current therapies to gain a competitive edge in this mature market."

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