FCV sales to cross one million mark by 2020
FCVs are part of the continuum of electric drive technologies, which are projected to capture an increasingly large share of the global passenger car and transit bus markets. For the passenger car market, fuel cells offer the benefits of zero emissions operation without the range and charging limitations of pure battery electric vehicles.
The fuel cell car market is now in the ramp-up phase to commercialization, anticipated by automakers to happen around 2015.
Senior analyst Lisa Jerram said: â€œThe fact that fuel cells for passenger cars are still being pursued may come as a surprise to casual observers of the clean vehicle technology arena. However, automakers such as Toyota, Daimler, GM, Honda, and Hyundai have all said that fuel cells are a critical piece of a complete clean vehicle portfolio. With fuel cells, they see the opportunity to offer a zero-emissions car with a 300-mile range in the larger vehicle platforms.â€
Jerram adds that, to meet the 2015 commercialization target, automakers will need to spend the next few years validating performance and reducing costs. Early adoption is likely to be focused in Japan, Germany, and California, where there is significant fueling infrastructure planned.
Transit buses have also been used as a test bed for fuel cell technology, though they lag somewhat behind cars in the timeframe for commercial viability. Transit fuel cell buses offer zero emissions and low noise operation, as well as greater fuel efficiency than internal combustion engines.
Pike Researchâ€™s projections are for commercially viable transit buses to follow that of light-duty vehicles, with this market more dependent on subsidies or incentives for adoption than the car market.
Pike Researchâ€™s analysis indicates that, during the pre-commercialization period from 2010 to 2014, approximately 10,000 FCVs will be deployed. Following that phase, the firm forecasts that 57,000 FCVs will be sold in 2015, with sales volumes ramping to 390,000 vehicles annually by 2020. These figures represent a downgrade from Pike Researchâ€™s previous FCV forecasts published in the first quarter of 2010.
Have your say and discuss with your peers on the InfoGrok community.
Participate by posting your comments now.