Political announcements signal a greater role for the market in China

President Xi Jinping's comments at the conclusion of the third plenum of the party’s 18th Central Committee signalled greater interest in protecting the private sector - but many risks still remain.

A "deepening" role for the market was proclaimed by China’s ruling elite as it concluded the third plenum of the party’s 18th Central Committee. While the final statement predictably lacked specificity, it reinforced the reformist agenda of President Xi Jinping and signalled a gradual diminution of state control of all aspects of the economy in favour market influenced prices.

The importance of the plenum was always about the message it would send about momentum in the reform agenda and the ability of the new leadership to overcome resistance to reform. Beginning with an anti-corruption campaign that effectively discredited political opponents, most notably Bo Xilai, and generated popular support, the government has progressed reforms in foreign direct investment policy and interest rate deregulation. It has also had the confidence to permit an economic slowdown. The board pronouncements from the plenum indicate that this momentum will be sustained.

The report signals the development of a more balanced policy towards the public and private sectors; the maintenance of government to commitment to state owned enterprises combined with the development of "fair, open and transparent" market rules for the economy.

Exceeding expectations, the texts from the plenum show the government understands that systemic reform is a pre-requisite for making China’s economic system more sustainable. Judicial structural reform is called for along with changes to the Party’s internal oversight processes, thereby enhancing the role of central Party authorities. Enhancing the power of the judiciary’s at local levels could provide the government with a more effective mechanism to address corruption and force local implementation of policy directives, which would be positive for reform in the medium to long term.

Impediments posed by the two-tier land ownership system and the concept of equal land rights were also raised. At present, farmers moving to urban areas are unable to sell their land, in contrast to urban dwellers who are able to buy and sell property. It is anticipated that the distinction between urban and rural land will be abolished, a significant reform, that will take China a step further towards an economy driven by market forces.

While businesses can take many positives from pledges, albeit ambiguous, to protect the private economy, the crucial issues of interest rates, the floating of the renminbi or banking sector reform, were not publicly mentioned. This shouldn’t be interpreted as a sign that no action will be taken; rather that the government is leaving itself significant room for manoeuvre to implement policy reform in accordance with political and economic necessity.

While the pledge of greater protection for the private sector is a positive announcement from the leaders of the world’s second largest economy, many risks remain inherent in transacting business in country that lacks an independent judiciary and vibrant civil society.

Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Photograph: Getty Images.

JLT Head of Credit & Political Risk Advisory

Photo: Getty Images
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The buck doesn't stop with Grant Shapps - and probably shouldn't stop with Lord Feldman, either

The question of "who knew what, and when?" shouldn't stop with the Conservative peer.

If Grant Shapps’ enforced resignation as a minister was intended to draw a line under the Mark Clarke affair, it has had the reverse effect. Attention is now shifting to Lord Feldman, who was joint chair during Shapps’  tenure at the top of CCHQ.  It is not just the allegations of sexual harrassment, bullying, and extortion against Mark Clarke, but the question of who knew what, and when.

Although Shapps’ resignation letter says that “the buck” stops with him, his allies are privately furious at his de facto sacking, and they are pointing the finger at Feldman. They point out that not only was Feldman the senior partner on paper, but when the rewards for the unexpected election victory were handed out, it was Feldman who was held up as the key man, while Shapps was given what they see as a relatively lowly position in the Department for International Development.  Yet Feldman is still in post while Shapps was effectively forced out by David Cameron. Once again, says one, “the PM’s mates are protected, the rest of us shafted”.

As Simon Walters reports in this morning’s Mail on Sunday, the focus is turning onto Feldman, while Paul Goodman, the editor of the influential grassroots website ConservativeHome has piled further pressure on the peer by calling for him to go.

But even Feldman’s resignation is unlikely to be the end of the matter. Although the scope of the allegations against Clarke were unknown to many, questions about his behaviour were widespread, and fears about the conduct of elections in the party’s youth wing are also longstanding. Shortly after the 2010 election, Conservative student activists told me they’d cheered when Sadiq Khan defeated Clarke in Tooting, while a group of Conservative staffers were said to be part of the “Six per cent club” – they wanted a swing big enough for a Tory majority, but too small for Clarke to win his seat. The viciousness of Conservative Future’s internal elections is sufficiently well-known, meanwhile, to be a repeated refrain among defenders of the notoriously opaque democratic process in Labour Students, with supporters of a one member one vote system asked if they would risk elections as vicious as those in their Tory equivalent.

Just as it seems unlikely that Feldman remained ignorant of allegations against Clarke if Shapps knew, it feels untenable to argue that Clarke’s defeat could be cheered by both student Conservatives and Tory staffers and the unpleasantness of the party’s internal election sufficiently well-known by its opponents, without coming across the desk of Conservative politicians above even the chair of CCHQ’s paygrade.

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.