Fracking is propping up the US economy

No wonder the UK wants a piece.

Rumours of America's death as the world's predominant economic power, to paraphrase Mark Twain, have been greatly exaggerated. Indeed, it now appears that Uncle Sam's hegemony seems set to continue for the foreseeable future. The Chinese dragon, which has for years been predicted to outperform the US eagle and assume the mantle of undisputed economic superpower, seems to have slowed its fiery progress and receded into its cave somewhat. The principal reason for this geo-political shift is largely driven by the USA’s current epoch-defining energy boom, courtesy of the discovery of huge shale gas reserves and the advent of fracking technology.

Fracking, the process of blasting shale gas from rock, is already revolutionising US energy capability and providing a shot in the arm for an economy that only a few years ago was wallowing in a deep recession brought about by the subprime mortgage collapse. The USA was a net importer of gas prior to shale coming to the rescue - now, in a remarkable volte face, it is a net exporter and has the power to drive the US economy into a new era of prosperity. This is not hyperbole; this is the technological breakthrough in energy of this generation and has already started to rebalance the global economic system. With cheap liquefied gas driving brent crude prices down in the US, the economy is no longer as dependent on the OPEC countries’ output and price controls. As the US returns to being self-sufficient, fuel is becoming cheaper and consumer spending is on the rise. The US has got more than 10,000 fracking wells opening up each year and their gas prices are three-and-a-half times lower than in the UK.

Clearly fracking has come at the right time for the US, as the country was beginning to recover it then received a huge boost from shale. As the US economy recovers and returns to growth, the knock-on effect for the rest of the world will be palpable. Global oil prices should fall, particularly good news for countries such as Russia, whose economy is driven by oil production and consumption. In short, prosperity is slowly returning to the economic behemoth and will continue to grow as the shale revolution fuels the US economy. This is happening at a time when the much vaunted rise of the BRIC countries - China in particular - is beginning to slow somewhat in the face of a declining export market, poor interest rates, closed financial markets and ever growing labour and manufacturing costs causing developed countries to repatriate certain higher-end manufacturing services.

It is no wonder that countries like the UK want to take advantage of fracking technology, on the basis that if the UK only sees a small percentage of the impact that shale gas has had in the US, there should be lower energy prices in the UK and greater household wealth. The American energy boom narrative is however a singular one and something that small countries such as the UK would do well not to ape too closely. The US has huge tracts of hinterland devoted to mining for shale gas - the majority of shale in the UK will have to be extracted in and around urban areas, so there is simply not the room for a wholesale energy revolution. Also, shale gas is a finite resource, so even the US will likely only benefit from this cheap energy source for the next 20-25 years.

What is critical for the UK and other major European economies is to continue prioritising research and development into alternative renewable energy technology, an area that the UK already leads in terms of innovation. Perhaps then the UK can find its own shale revolution using renewable, clean energy technology.

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Co-CEO of DLA Piper

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The Women's March against Trump matters – but only if we keep fighting

We won’t win the battle for progressive ideas if we don’t battle in the first place.

Arron Banks, UKIP-funder, Brexit cheerleader and Gibraltar-based insurance salesman, took time out from Trump's inauguration to tweet me about my role in tomorrow's Women’s March Conservative values are in the ascendancy worldwide. Thankfully your values are finished. . . good”.

Just what about the idea of women and men marching for human rights causes such ill will? The sense it is somehow cheeky to say we will champion equality whoever is in office in America or around the world. After all, if progressives like me have lost the battle of ideas, what difference does it make whether we are marching, holding meetings or just moaning on the internet?

The only anti-democratic perspective is to argue that when someone has lost the argument they have to stop making one. When political parties lose elections they reflect, they listen, they learn but if they stand for something, they don’t disband. The same is true, now, for the broader context. We should not dismiss the necessity to learn, to listen, to reflect on the rise of Trump – or indeed reflect on the rise of the right in the UK  but reject the idea that we have to take a vow of silence if we want to win power again.

To march is not to ignore the challenges progressives face. It is to start to ask what are we prepared to do about it.

Historically, conservatives have had no such qualms about regrouping and remaining steadfast in the confidence they have something worth saying. In contrast, the left has always been good at absolving itself of the need to renew.

We spend our time seeking the perfect candidates, the perfect policy, the perfect campaign, as a precondition for action. It justifies doing nothing except sitting on the sidelines bemoaning the state of society.

We also seem to think that changing the world should be easier than reality suggests. The backlash we are now seeing against progressive policies was inevitable once we appeared to take these gains for granted and became arrogant and exclusive about the inevitability of our worldview. Our values demand the rebalancing of power, whether economic, social or cultural, and that means challenging those who currently have it. We may believe that a more equal world is one in which more will thrive, but that doesn’t mean those with entrenched privilege will give up their favoured status without a fight or that the public should express perpetual gratitude for our efforts via the ballot box either.  

Amongst the conferences, tweets and general rumblings there seem three schools of thought about what to do next. The first is Marxist  as in Groucho revisionism: to rise again we must water down our principles to accommodate where we believe the centre ground of politics to now be. Tone down our ideals in the hope that by such acquiescence we can eventually win back public support for our brand – if not our purpose. The very essence of a hollow victory.

The second is to stick to our guns and stick our heads in the sand, believing that eventually, when World War Three breaks out, the public will come grovelling back to us. To luxuriate in an unwillingness to see we are losing not just elected offices but the fight for our shared future.

But what if there really was a third way? It's not going to be easy, and it requires more than a hashtag or funny t-shirt. It’s about picking ourselves up, dusting ourselves down and starting to renew our call to arms in a way that makes sense for the modern world.

For the avoidance of doubt, if we march tomorrow and then go home satisfied we have made our point then we may as well not have marched at all. But if we march and continue to organise out of the networks we make, well, then that’s worth a Saturday in the cold. After all, we won’t win the battle of ideas, if we don’t battle.

We do have to change the way we work. We do have to have the courage not to live in our echo chambers alone. To go with respect and humility to debate and discuss the future of our communities and of our country.

And we have to come together to show there is a willingness not to ask a few brave souls to do that on their own. Not just at election times, but every day and in every corner of Britain, no matter how difficult it may feel.

Saturday is one part of that process of finding others willing not just to walk a mile with a placard, but to put in the hard yards to win the argument again for progressive values and vision. Maybe no one will show up. Maybe not many will keep going. But whilst there are folk with faith in each other, and in that alternative future, they’ll find a friend in me ready to work with them and will them on  and then Mr Banks really should be worried.