Syria has finally seeped into financial markets. It's horrific

Wall Street's "fear gage" up 40 per cent.

Syria. It’s seeped into national politics, public life, and, lately, social media. But this week, as the taboo word “intervention” is used for the first time, Syria has finally seeped into financial markets. And its effect is horrific.

A quick run through the financial headlines and you get the idea: The FTSE 100 is off about 0.5pc at 6,408, the FTSE Asia Pacific index is down 1.6 per cent, the CBOE Vix volatility index (which the FT calls "Wall Street’s fear gauge") is 40 per cent higher than the start of August. The Indian stock market is off 1.1 per cent, 8 per cent since the start of the month, as the rupee continues to fall.  Indonesia’s rupiah is at a fresh four-year low and Turkey’s lira is also suffering. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 1.5 per cent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 1.6 per cent.

Underlying these falls is a rush to that old commodity – oil. "Oil volatility" had almost become a by-word to describe financial markets of the 70s and 80s as developed nations thought that blasting water into their sovereign rocks – fracking – would put an end to it. But no, when it comes to the Middle East, oil is key and today its prices are at a two year high. The WTI advanced to $112.24, the highest since May 2011, and Brent oil climbed 0.7 percent to $115.16, after reaching $117.34.

The price of gold has also surged this week – the word "intervention" being, for some, a war cry to seize safe assets.

But while financial markets get hysterical over the possible military intervention in Syria and the effects on oil, consider the scene on the ground. Although Syria’s economy has long been shot, oil never really formed a part of it. Before sanctions stopped the pumps, most of the country’s oil fields were in the East of the country, along the Euphrates, nowhere near the fighting that continues between Damascus and Aleppo and along Lebanese and Turkish borders. Should the Syrian civil war spill well beyond these borders, it shouldn’t matter to the oil market as neither are these countries significant producers.

While major oil pipelines ring Syria, none actually go through the country. Likewise with Syria’s coast, which, when it was deprived of Beirut during the Sykes–Picot Agreement, has never been a maritime trader.

Further still, should neighbouring trade routes, such as the Sumed or Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipelines be put at jeopardy, there is a high chance that Saudi Arabia will lead the charge of OPEC countries to stabilise prises by increasing production – just as they did with Libya two years ago.     

So why now and why oil? Are commodity traders so globally naive as to still believe that "the Middle East=oil"? Or, maybe the word "intervention" triggers an unknowing array of financial algorithms to sell dodgy assets?

But what is happening now in the financial markets is so large that, even if the answer is "yes" to these two questions, there are larger forces at play. After the aforementioned financial chaos, it seems that markets are now predicting what many of us have thought for a while, that this conflict, stirred by intervention, is going to be much larger than simply "Syria".

Markets, to emphasis, are taking on board what William Hague said last week: "What's happening now in the Middle East is the most important event of the 21st Century so far even compared to the financial crises we have been through...it will take years and maybe decades to play out".

Financial markets get hysterical. Photograph: Getty Images

Oliver Williams is an analyst at WealthInsight and writes for VRL Financial News

Shazia Awan
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I'm a Welsh Asian - so why doesn't the Welsh Assembly have a box for me to tick?

A bureaucrat's form clumsily equates being Welsh with being White. 

As someone born in Caerphilly, who grew up in Wales, and is learning Welsh, I feel nothing but Welsh. I am a proud Welsh Asian – and yet the Welsh Assembly appear to be telling me and many like me that that’s not an option.

An equalities form issued in Wales, by the Welsh Assembly, that does not have an option to identify as non-white and Welsh. What kind of message does this send, especially at a time of public worries about integration? Sadly, I am not so surprised at this from an institution which, despite a 17-year history, seems to still struggle with the very basics of equality and diversity.
 
By the omission of options to identify as Welsh and Asian, Welsh and black, Welsh and mixed heritage (I could go on), the Welsh Assembly's form has told us something wider about the institutional perception of our diverse communities in Wales. There are options on the form for "Asian or Asian British Indian" and "Black or Black British Caribbean", to give but two examples. And also for "White British", "White Irish" and "White Welsh". But not for "Asian Welsh", or "Black Welsh". Did it not occur to anyone that there was something wrong? 

It seems like a monumental error by the Welsh Assembly Commission, which designed the form, and a telling one at that. 

A predominantly white institution (there are two non-white Assembly members out of 60 and there has never been a female Black, Asian or minority ethnic Assembly member) has dictated which ethnic group is deemed to look Welsh enough to tick their box (for those of us Welsh Asians, it seems the only box to tick is that most Orientalist of descriptions, "Other"). 
 
Over the summer, meanwhile, we saw the First minister of Wales Carwyn Jones rather clumsily assemble his Brexit advisory group. This group was made up of predominantly white, middle aged men, and not a single person from a black, Asian and minority ethnic background. It seems that despite the box ticking exercises, the First Minister is taking advice from his “White Welsh” group. 
 
And it matters. The Welsh Assembly was established with a statutory duty to promote equality in Wales. In June, 17 out of 22 local authority areas in Wales voted Leave. Post-referendum, our proud Welsh BAME communities have been affected by hate crime. The perpetrators wish to draw a distinction between "them" and "us". Our national parliament is doing nothing to challenge such a distinction. Does it really think there are no non-white Welsh people in Wales? 

In Wales, we have a huge sense of overwhelming pride in what it means to be Welsh, from pride in our rugby and football teams, our language, to our food and our culture. Many friends over the years from different backgrounds have come to Wales to either study or work, fallen in love with our country and chosen to make it their home. They identify as Welsh. The thing about those of us who are Welsh and proud is that we understand that we are stronger in our diversity and stronger together as a Welsh nation. It’s a shame that our Welsh Assembly is not operating with that same sense of understanding that we have in our communities in Wales. 
 
No doubt the nameless form creator simply copied a format seen elsewhere, and would argue the omission is not their fault. Yet in these tense times, such an omission seems to arrogantly suggest Welsh is something exclusively White. 
 
The Welsh Assembly has a long way to travel on the road to creating a fairer society. From these kind of blunders, it seems clear that it is not even off the starting line. 
 
Shazia Awan is an equality activist and Consultant advising on equality and diversity issues. She is launching Women Create, a social enterprise to help women and young people from disadvantaged backgrounds into enterprise and employment. She  is Vice President of the Council for Voluntary Youth Services in Wales, is an Ambassador to Show Racism the Red Card and she was the first Asian woman to address a Welsh Tory party conference. 

 

Shazia Awan is an equality activist. She is launching Women Create, a social enterprise to help women and young people from disadvantaged backgrounds into enterprise and employment. She is Vice President of the Council for Voluntary Youth Services in Wales and she was the first Asian woman to address a Welsh Tory party conference. You can follow her @shaziaawan.