I may just have spoken to the most optimistic and cheery senior UK-based banker for many a year.
Dave Chan, CEO of Barclaycard Europe, is not just chirpy about the prospects for UK plc; he says that there is evidence going back to the second quarter of the year that we may have turned a corner. In short, people are spending more on their cards.
In May and June, "nominal spend" – that is expenditure taking account of inflation – of Barclaycard cardholders rose for four months in a row for the first time in three years. Given the importance of consumer spending as an engine of growth and with expenditure now on a gentle upward trend, we may indeed be witnessing the recovery starting to gain momentum.
That is however only part of the story. The clever number-crunchers at Barclays have been analysing just what exactly we are using our cards to purchase. There are signs that discretionary expenditure is rising including purchases such as foreign holidays Perhaps the real clincher to back up Chan’s optimism relates to card expenditure on home improvements.
In the past couple of months he says that there has been a big uplift in expenditure in this sector.
Meantime, UK unemployment remains stubbornly high at 7.8 per cent. If the Bank of England forecasts for GDP growth are accurate – and here it has a decidedly mixed track record – we will only enjoy growth of 1.4 per cent this year and 2.3 per cent next year.
For those of us old enough to have lived through economic upturns following past recessions, such relatively low rates of growth are way below the growth levels witnessed during the Thatcher second term and Blair’s first term.
The chances of UK unemployment falling below 7 per cent and the trigger for a change in UK monetary policy – that means higher interest rates to you and me – is slim in the next three years. That inevitably will impact the prospects for the share prices of the major UK banks.
As for home improvements major players, such as B&Q’s parent Kingfisher, there may be renewed interest in how its share price performs. Analysts following Kingfisher are divided with six rating the stock a sell, seven say hold with 13 recommending a buy.
Time will tell if Chan’s grounds for optimism are well founded.
I am glad to report, that at no time during the course of a lengthy conversation did he use the phrase “green shoots” (Norman Lamont circa the 1991 recession).