Is an Irish recovery on the way?

House prices rose over the last year.

According to figures released this week by the Central Statistics Office, Irish property prices rose by 1.2 per cent in the year to June 2013.

This is the first annual increase since January 2008.

It is expected that this increase will encourage buyers who were on the sidelines to enter the market, prompting hopes that a recovery will get under way.

However, despite the rise, it should be noted that Irish property prices are still 50 per cent lower than they were at their peak in September 2007.

Over this same period the Euro, which has been used as the currency in Ireland since 1999, has depreciated by 11 per cent against the US dollar which means the drop in US dollar terms is even higher at 60 per cent. This is significantly worse than UK and US markets which are 34 per cent and 29 per cent below peak as of June 2013 (in US dollar terms).

Ireland’s economy was one of the worst hit in the EU. GDP dipped for 3 straight years (2008, 2009 and 2010) before recovering slightly in 2011 and 2012. This of course followed a period of extremely strong growth between 2000 and 2007 when GDP growth averaged over 5.0  per cent per annum.

In Dublin, residential property prices grew by 1.7 per cent in June and were 4.2 per cent higher than a year ago. 

Interestingly, the prices of Dublin homes valued at more than €500,000 increased by significantly more than lower priced properties over the past 12 months.

The average price of a second hand home in the capital is now €279,000 according to Douglas Newman Good (DNG).

Photograph: Getty Images

Andrew Amoils is a writer for WealthInsight

Photo: Getty
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Who will win the Copeland by-election?

Labour face a tricky task in holding onto the seat. 

What’s the Copeland by-election about? That’s the question that will decide who wins it.

The Conservatives want it to be about the nuclear industry, which is the seat’s biggest employer, and Jeremy Corbyn’s long history of opposition to nuclear power.

Labour want it to be about the difficulties of the NHS in Cumbria in general and the future of West Cumberland Hospital in particular.

Who’s winning? Neither party is confident of victory but both sides think it will be close. That Theresa May has visited is a sign of the confidence in Conservative headquarters that, win or lose, Labour will not increase its majority from the six-point lead it held over the Conservatives in May 2015. (It’s always more instructive to talk about vote share rather than raw numbers, in by-elections in particular.)

But her visit may have been counterproductive. Yes, she is the most popular politician in Britain according to all the polls, but in visiting she has added fuel to the fire of Labour’s message that the Conservatives are keeping an anxious eye on the outcome.

Labour strategists feared that “the oxygen” would come out of the campaign if May used her visit to offer a guarantee about West Cumberland Hospital. Instead, she refused to answer, merely hyping up the issue further.

The party is nervous that opposition to Corbyn is going to supress turnout among their voters, but on the Conservative side, there is considerable irritation that May’s visit has made their task harder, too.

Voters know the difference between a by-election and a general election and my hunch is that people will get they can have a free hit on the health question without risking the future of the nuclear factory. That Corbyn has U-Turned on nuclear power only helps.

I said last week that if I knew what the local paper would look like between now and then I would be able to call the outcome. Today the West Cumbria News & Star leads with Downing Street’s refusal to answer questions about West Cumberland Hospital. All the signs favour Labour. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.