Guys, come on, we all know newspapers are doomed

Why are headlines trying to persuade us otherwise?

Just look at the latest circulation figures for the UK’s "unrivalled" stable of national newspapers. Now look at the headline of the article that included these numbers in the main body.

 

Per cent change year on year

Daily Titles

 

Daily Mirror

-3.94%

Daily Star

-10.20%

The Sun

-13.15%

Daily Express

-13.31%

Daily Mail

-6.86%

The Daily Telegraph

-4.63%

Financial Times

-13.03%

The Guardian

-11.59%

i

11.16%

The Independent

-18.82%

The Times

-2.29%

 

 

Sunday Titles

 

Daily Star Sunday

-29.05%

The Sun (Sunday)

-14.37%

Sunday Mirror

-4.68%

The People

-7.78%

Sunday Express

-11.10%

The Mail on Sunday

-10.21%

Independent on Sunday

-8.65%

The Observer

-12.94%

The Sunday Telegraph

-6.15%

The Sunday Times

-8.27%

The headline probably says more about the real problem at the heart of the media establishment than anything that was said during last year's Leveson enquiry.

The circulations of Britain's national newspapers are in terminal decline. This has been obvious for some while and you only have to speak with the millions of well-informed, articulate people under 30 years old to know why. The numbers presented in the report show quite how badly the circulations are falling. The dailies are down about 8 per cent, year on year and the Sundays by more than 11 per cent.

So you have to wonder what inspired the headline " Telegraph enjoys summer lifts in June"?

More importantly, could the article have looked at the issues that newspaper publishers face? Take distribution, for example. Delivering newsprint all around the country is costly and getting more so with every week. And papers like the Guardian are already loosing millions every year.

There will come a time when publishers calculate that the costs simply outweigh the return. Thus there are two dilemmas. First, is to calculate exactly when the newspaper groups will cease trying to sell papers at the news stand. Second, is to ask why the UK's supposedly diligent and rigorous cadre of journalists is so reluctant to investigate why an industry in such trouble is getting such misleading headlines?

The answer to the first question is: sooner than you think. The answer to the second probably doesn't matter.

Photograph: Getty Images

Spencer Neal is a reformed publisher who now advises on media and stakeholder relations at Keeble Brown. He writes about the ironies and hypocrisies that crop up in other peoples' businesses. He is also an optimist.

Photo: Getty
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Can Philip Hammond save the Conservatives from public anger at their DUP deal?

The Chancellor has the wriggle room to get close to the DUP's spending increase – but emotion matters more than facts in politics.

The magic money tree exists, and it is growing in Northern Ireland. That’s the attack line that Labour will throw at Theresa May in the wake of her £1bn deal with the DUP to keep her party in office.

It’s worth noting that while £1bn is a big deal in terms of Northern Ireland’s budget – just a touch under £10bn in 2016/17 – as far as the total expenditure of the British government goes, it’s peanuts.

The British government spent £778bn last year – we’re talking about spending an amount of money in Northern Ireland over the course of two years that the NHS loses in pen theft over the course of one in England. To match the increase in relative terms, you’d be looking at a £35bn increase in spending.

But, of course, political arguments are about gut instinct rather than actual numbers. The perception that the streets of Antrim are being paved by gold while the public realm in England, Scotland and Wales falls into disrepair is a real danger to the Conservatives.

But the good news for them is that last year Philip Hammond tweaked his targets to give himself greater headroom in case of a Brexit shock. Now the Tories have experienced a shock of a different kind – a Corbyn shock. That shock was partly due to the Labour leader’s good campaign and May’s bad campaign, but it was also powered by anger at cuts to schools and anger among NHS workers at Jeremy Hunt’s stewardship of the NHS. Conservative MPs have already made it clear to May that the party must not go to the country again while defending cuts to school spending.

Hammond can get to slightly under that £35bn and still stick to his targets. That will mean that the DUP still get to rave about their higher-than-average increase, while avoiding another election in which cuts to schools are front-and-centre. But whether that deprives Labour of their “cuts for you, but not for them” attack line is another question entirely. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.

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