The UK is trying to replicate the US gas boom. It will fail

Tax incentives won’t help.

Chancellor George Osborne’s announcement last week that the UK will offer what he is calling the world's "most generous" tax relief regime, of 30 per cent, down from a typical 62 per cent, to hydraulic fracturing companies, has sent a clear signal that it’s not a case of if we should frack in the UK, but when.  

In the US the hydraulic fracturing revolution has seen gas prices tumble from around $14 per million BTU in 2008 to around $3 in December 2012 ( a fall of around 90 per cent) and according to the International Energy Agency, the US could be independent in oil and gas by 2035.

This is something Osborne says he wants to replicate; however, his enthusiasm may be premature.

The British Geological Survey estimates there may be 1,300 trillion cubic feet of shale gas present in the north of England– but it is important to remember this is as yet unproven and we don’t know how much of it is actually accessible.  As yet, companies have only "fracked", as it is commonly known, a few wells; a process which involves removing natural gas trapped in shale formation deep underground by mixing gallons of water with a cocktail of chemicals and injecting them into the earth.

With a 50 per cent tax break Osborne seeks "to create the right conditions for industry to explore and unlock that potential [of shale gas]," as he says. However, though a bonus for shale gas companies if they do succeed in extracting gas, it isn’t going to make production come any quicker or current conditions for the industry any better.

Companies have already said it is not taxation that is putting them off investment but planning permissions and public resistance.

This is because unlike the US, which is a vast sprawling country, the UK is relatively small and compact meaning fracking will inevitably take place much closer to communities, resulting in a high possibility of public opposition. The strong aversion to wind farms in the UK’s countryside gives you a clue as to the opposition fracking companies are likely to encounter. In 2012 approvals for onshore wind farms were down to 35 per cent – in the same year a Guardian poll said opposition had tripled – from 70 per cent in 2008.

Fracking wells won’t only be an eyesore for communities but there are other issues, such as a small risk of earth quake tremors, water contamination and methane leaks – in Pennsylvania, USA, residents complained of finding methane in their water, along with up to 27 other chemicals.

The government has said fracking will boost local communities with jobs and that they will give them £100,000 per well and up to 1 per cent of all revenues from production, but will this be enough to temper possible widespread resistance?

In the US, farmers, in often economically repressed areas, can directly lease their land to fracking companies agreeing a fee and often a royalty payment on top, meaning they have much more of an incentive to accept fracking.

If the government is hell bent on Fracking, engaging with communities and getting them onside with rock solid incentives and reassurance of strict regulation is likely to speed things along and be more beneficial for everyone in the longer run than slapping a tax break on profit not yet earned.

Also, as the UK’s shale gas reserves are as yet unproven, offering a deal similar to what Norway offers to oil and gas exploration companies – a promise of a 78 per cent refund of cost if a company drills a dry well – might show more confidence and incentive to fracking companies, if the government is so sure the UK can replicate the US’s success. But as it stands fracking is still a long way from fruition, and, if it ever does get off the ground, it is still uncertain it will match the shale gas boom the US have seen.

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Heidi Vella is a features writer for Nridigital.com

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Why Angela Merkel's comments about the UK and US shouldn't be given too much weight

The Chancellor's comments are aimed at a domestic and European audience, and she won't be abandoning Anglo-German relationships just yet.

Angela Merkel’s latest remarks do not seem well-judged but should not be given undue significance. Speaking as part of a rally in Munich for her sister party, the CSU, the German Chancellor claimed “we Europeans must really take our own fate into our hands”.

The comments should be read in the context of September's German elections and Merkel’s determination to restrain the fortune of her main political rival, Martin Schulz – obviously a strong Europhile and a committed Trump critic. Sigmar Gabriel - previously seen as a candidate to lead the left-wing SPD - has for some time been pressing for Germany and Europe to have “enough self-confidence” to stand up to Trump. He called for a “self-confident position, not just on behalf of us Germans but all Europeans”. Merkel is in part responding to this pressure.

Her words were well received by her audience. The beer hall crowd erupted into sustained applause. But taking an implicit pop at Donald Trump is hardly likely to be a divisive tactic at such a gathering. Criticising the UK post-Brexit and the US under Trump is the sort of virtue signalling guaranteed to ensure a good clap.

It’s not clear that the comments represent that much of a new departure, as she herself has since claimed. She said something similar earlier this year. In January, after the publication of Donald Trump’s interview with The Times and Bild, she said that “we Europeans have our fate in our own hands”.

At one level what Merkel said is something of a truism: in two year’s time Britain will no longer be directly deciding the fate of the EU. In future no British Prime Minister will attend the European Council, and British MEPs will leave the Parliament at the next round of European elections in 2019. Yet Merkel’s words “we Europeans”, conflate Europe and the EU, something she has previously rejected. Back in July last year, at a joint press conference with Theresa May, she said: “the UK after all remains part of Europe, if not of the Union”.

At the same press conference, Merkel also confirmed that the EU and the UK would need to continue to work together. At that time she even used the first person plural to include Britain, saying “we have certain missions also to fulfil with the rest of the world” – there the ‘we’ meant Britain and the EU, now the 'we' excludes Britain.

Her comments surely also mark a frustration born of difficulties at the G7 summit over climate change, but Britain and Germany agreed at the meeting in Sicily on the Paris Accord. More broadly, the next few months will be crucial for determining the future relationship between Britain and the EU. There will be many difficult negotiations ahead.

Merkel is widely expected to remain the German Chancellor after this autumn’s election. As the single most powerful individual in the EU27, she is the most crucial person in determining future relations between the UK and the EU. Indeed, to some extent, it was her intransigence during Cameron’s ‘renegotiation’ which precipitated Brexit itself. She also needs to watch with care growing irritation across the EU at the (perceived) extent of German influence and control over the institutions and direction of the European project. Recent reports in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung which suggested a Merkel plan for Jens Weidmann of the Bundesbank to succeed Mario Draghi at the ECB have not gone down well across southern Europe. For those critics, the hands controlling the fate of Europe are Merkel’s.

Brexit remains a crucial challenge for the EU. How the issue is handled will shape the future of the Union. Many across Europe’s capitals are worried that Brussels risks driving Britain further away than Brexit will require; they are worried lest the Channel becomes metaphorically wider and Britain turns its back on the continent. On the UK side, Theresa May has accepted the EU, and particularly Merkel’s, insistence, that there can be no cherry picking, and therefore she has committed to leaving the single market as well as the EU. May has offered a “deep and special” partnership and a comprehensive free trading arrangement. Merkel should welcome Britain’s clarity. She must work with new French President Emmanuel Macron and others to lead the EU towards a new relationship with Britain – a close partnership which protects free trade, security and the other forms of cooperation which benefit all Europeans.

Henry Newman is the director of Open Europe. He tweets @henrynewman.

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