Bankrupting cities – the US’s new cut-and-run scheme

$18 billion – that is the cost of Detroit’s debt.

$18 bn – that is the cost of Detroit’s debt, as revealed on Thursday when the city filed for bankruptcy, setting a new record in the US. This figure is a gentle reminder of America’s inequality – consider, not only that 30 of the nation’s billionaires could single-handedly pay off Detroit’s debt, but the news comes amid a gloat of optimism in the US.

US jobs figures – the most scrutinised of monthly data in the world’s largest economy – has beaten all expectations in June, May and April (monthly payroll gains averaging 196,000). Other good-news data has encouraged Ben Bernanke, the US Federal Reserve Chairman, to “taper” quantitative easing and equities are topping unknown heights.

But all this means nothing for the citizens of Detroit, or at least those 78,000 who remain in the city, down from two million in its 1950s heyday. Along with the citizens of America’s other bankrupt cities – Stockton, Mammoth Lakes and San Bernardino – they are the dead weight that America must cut in her struggle to the surface of economic buoyancy.

The message is harsh, yet simple – economic recovery is not universal and struggling cities must pay for their own recovery. How many more American cities, then, will we see go bankrupt as the inequality spits ever further? And what if this US tactic caches on in Europe – could we see a bankrupt Nottingham or Liverpool? (Admittedly, America’s Chapter 9 bankruptcy is not quite as dramatic as "bankruptcy" in the UK).

For Detroit, though, this means many more years representing America’s blue collar bust; the demise of industry and the heartland of sub-prime mortgages, while the rest of the country gets back on its feet.  When asked by CNBC if Detroit’s bankruptcy will affect markets, Steve Brice, Chief Investment Strategist of StanChart replied “markets seem to shrugging it off quite significantly”. 

However, to end on a positive note, this filing completes Detroit’s fall from grace. Here on, things can only get better in America’s industrial heartland.  

Photograph: Getty Images

Oliver Williams is an analyst at WealthInsight and writes for VRL Financial News

Photo: Getty
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Who will win the Copeland by-election?

Labour face a tricky task in holding onto the seat. 

What’s the Copeland by-election about? That’s the question that will decide who wins it.

The Conservatives want it to be about the nuclear industry, which is the seat’s biggest employer, and Jeremy Corbyn’s long history of opposition to nuclear power.

Labour want it to be about the difficulties of the NHS in Cumbria in general and the future of West Cumberland Hospital in particular.

Who’s winning? Neither party is confident of victory but both sides think it will be close. That Theresa May has visited is a sign of the confidence in Conservative headquarters that, win or lose, Labour will not increase its majority from the six-point lead it held over the Conservatives in May 2015. (It’s always more instructive to talk about vote share rather than raw numbers, in by-elections in particular.)

But her visit may have been counterproductive. Yes, she is the most popular politician in Britain according to all the polls, but in visiting she has added fuel to the fire of Labour’s message that the Conservatives are keeping an anxious eye on the outcome.

Labour strategists feared that “the oxygen” would come out of the campaign if May used her visit to offer a guarantee about West Cumberland Hospital. Instead, she refused to answer, merely hyping up the issue further.

The party is nervous that opposition to Corbyn is going to supress turnout among their voters, but on the Conservative side, there is considerable irritation that May’s visit has made their task harder, too.

Voters know the difference between a by-election and a general election and my hunch is that people will get they can have a free hit on the health question without risking the future of the nuclear factory. That Corbyn has U-Turned on nuclear power only helps.

I said last week that if I knew what the local paper would look like between now and then I would be able to call the outcome. Today the West Cumbria News & Star leads with Downing Street’s refusal to answer questions about West Cumberland Hospital. All the signs favour Labour. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.