The public sector has a lot to learn

Getting the hell on with it.

Last week the chancellor, George Osborne, trumpeted agreements with seven government departments on their budgets for the next comprehensive spending review (CSR), which is due to be announced next month.

The CSR will lay out spending for the five years after 2015. In keeping with his commitment to “Plan A”, Osborne is looking for a further £11bn of cuts in government budgets. With health, education and overseas development protected, there will be tough decisions to be made elsewhere. Reaching an agreement with seven departments is a promising start, but these were all relatively low-spending departments with smaller budgets. The agreed savings were reported at £2.5bn. So the really tough decisions still lie ahead.

How these discussion are progressing was signalled by an interview given by defence secretary Philip Hammond on the Today programme. He explained that frank discussions (which can be read to mean arguments) between the Treasury and the MoD have had to be mediated by the Cabinet Office, which has launched an independent review of the department’s spending plans.

The MoD is an interesting case in point. It was severely affected by the last round of cuts with all three armed forces still reeling from the strategic defence review that was as much about cutting costs as it was about better military decision-making. What makes the MoD especially interesting is that it is one of the better organised ministries. Hammond has deployed former experience in business to set the department up in a businesslike fashion.

It is one of the few departments with a board that functions in the way a FTSE 100 board might. Indeed, a scan of the departmental pages of the gov.uk website reveals that of the 24 cabinet departments, only a handful have this kind of properly functioning board. Perhaps strangely, the department for Business Innovation and Skills isn’t one.

A good look at the structure of government in this country, especially compared to other countries, suggests we have too many departments and way too many ministers. The 24 ministries compares to an international average of 15 or 16. The UK’s 120 ministers compares very badly with 78 in India, 66 in Canada and 68 in South Africa.

Even more unusual is the fact that devolution of power to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland hasn’t seen a decrease in UK ministers, but rather an increase, so that the actual UK total (including ministers in the devolved regions is closer to 200).

With all these jobs to protect, it’s no surprise that getting all these departments to agree they can afford substantial cuts is a tough job for the Treasury.  

One way to bring all this under control and make the process much simpler is highlighted in a new report published this week by ICAEW. In A CFO at the Cabinet Table? Strengthening UK government finances for the future, Sumita Shah highlights the potential advantages of having someone in the position to take on a “group finance” role across government. While each individual financial team is making a case for their department, the political tug of war between the Treasury and all the other members of cabinet will continue.

As to the tougher question of what long-term impact the focus on public sector cuts is having on the private, new research (also produced by ICAEW) found that 31 per cent of businesses reported their turnover has been negatively affected by UK public sector cuts, this is up from 21 per cent two years ago when the same question was last asked.

Not surprisingly the vast majority of those affected by these cuts have looked elsewhere for business, with 72 per cent of those negatively affected by the public sector cuts looking for new customers outside the public sector. However almost half (49 per cent) have had to cut permanent staff and 41 per cent have reduced their contract or temporary staff.

So the message seems to be clear. The private sector, while fearing the worst, is doing its best to get on with life in the age of austerity. It would help enormously if it was obvious that the public sector (and in particular central government) was doing the same thing by simplifying and rationalising government systems and structures.

Some of the money freed up might be wisely invested by putting in place a strong central government finance function, starting with the appointment of a cabinet CFO.

Treasury. Photograph: Getty Images

Richard Cree is the Editor of Economia.

Photo: Getty
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Ken Livingstone says publicly what many are saying privately: tomorrow belongs to John McDonnell

The Shadow Chancellor has emerged as a frontrunner should another Labour leadership election happen. 

“It would be John.” Ken Livingstone, one of Jeremy Corbyn’s most vocal allies in the media, has said publicly what many are saying privately: if something does happen to Corbyn, or should he choose to step down, place your bets on John McDonnell. Livingstone, speaking to Russia Today, said that if Corbyn were "pushed under a bus", John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, would be the preferred candidate to replace him.

Even among the Labour leader’s allies, speculation is rife as to if the Islington North MP will lead the party into the 2020 election. Corbyn would be 71 in 2020 – the oldest candidate for Prime Minister since Clement Attlee lost the 1955 election aged 72.

While Corbyn is said to be enjoying the role at present, he still resents the intrusion of much of the press and dislikes many of the duties of the party leader. McDonnell, however, has impressed even some critics with his increasingly polished TV performances and has wowed a few sceptical donors. One big donor, who was thinking of pulling their money, confided that a one-on-one chat with the shadow chancellor had left them feeling much happier than a similar chat with Ed Miliband.

The issue of the succession is widely discussed on the left. For many, having waited decades to achieve a position of power, pinning their hopes on the health of one man would be unforgivably foolish. One historically-minded trade union official points out that Hugh Gaitskell, at 56, and John Smith, at 55, were 10 and 11 years younger than Corbyn when they died. In 1994, the right was ready and had two natural successors in the shape of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in place. In 1963, the right was unprepared and lost the leadership to Harold Wilson, from the party's centre. "If something happens, or he just decides to call it a day, [we have to make sure] it will be '94 not '63," they observed.

While McDonnell is just two years younger than Corbyn, his closest ally in politics and a close personal friend, he is seen by some as considerably more vigorous. His increasingly frequent outings on television have seen him emerge as one of the most adept media performers from the Labour left, and he has won internal plaudits for his recent tussles with George Osborne over the tax bill.

The left’s hopes of securing a non-Corbyn candidate on the ballot have been boosted in recent weeks. The parliamentary Labour party’s successful attempt to boot Steve Rotheram off the party’s ruling NEC, while superficially a victory for the party’s Corbynsceptics, revealed that the numbers are still there for a candidate of the left to make the ballot. 30 MPs voted to keep Rotheram in place, with many MPs from the left of the party, including McDonnell, Corbyn, Diane Abbott and John Trickett, abstaining.

The ballot threshold has risen due to a little-noticed rule change, agreed over the summer, to give members of the European Parliament equal rights with members of the Westminster Parliament. However, Labour’s MEPs are more leftwing, on the whole, than the party in Westminster . In addition, party members vote on the order that Labour MEPs appear on the party list, increasing (or decreasing) their chances of being re-elected, making them more likely to be susceptible to an organised campaign to secure a place for a leftwinger on the ballot.

That makes it – in the views of many key players – incredibly likely that the necessary 51 nominations to secure a place on the ballot are well within reach for the left, particularly if by-election selections in Ogmore, where the sitting MP, is standing down to run for the Welsh Assembly, and Sheffield Brightside, where Harry Harpham has died, return candidates from the party’s left.

McDonnell’s rivals on the left of the party are believed to have fallen short for one reason or another. Clive Lewis, who many party activists believe could provide Corbynism without the historical baggage of the man himself, is unlikely to be able to secure the nominations necessary to make the ballot.

Any left candidate’s route to the ballot paper runs through the 2015 intake, who are on the whole more leftwing than their predecessors. But Lewis has alienated many of his potential allies, with his antics in the 2015 intake’s WhatsApp group a sore point for many. “He has brought too much politics into it,” complained one MP who is also on the left of the party. (The group is usually used for blowing off steam and arranging social events.)

Lisa Nandy, who is from the soft left rather than the left of the party, is widely believed to be in the running also, despite her ruling out any leadership ambitions in a recent interview with the New Statesman.However, she would represent a break from the Corbynite approach, albeit a more leftwing one than Dan Jarvis or Hilary Benn.

Local party chairs in no doubt that the shadow chancellor is profiling should another leadership election arise. One constituency chair noted to the New Statesman that: “you could tell who was going for it [last time], because they were desperate to speak [at events]”. Tom Watson, Caroline Flint, Chuka Umunna, Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham and Liz Kendall all visited local parties across the country in preparation for their election bids in 2015.

Now, speaking to local party activists, four names are mentioned more than any other: Dan Jarvis, currently on the backbenches, but in whom the hopes – and the donations – of many who are disillusioned by the current leadership are invested, Gloria De Piero, who is touring the country as part of the party’s voter registration drive, her close ally Jon Ashworth, and John McDonnell.

Another close ally of Corbyn and McDonnell, who worked closely on the leadership election, is in no doubt that the shadow chancellor is gearing up for a run should the need arise.  “You remember when that nice Mr Watson went touring the country? Well, pay attention to John’s movements.”

As for his chances of success, McDonnell may well be even more popular among members than Corbyn himself. He is regularly at or near the top of LabourList's shadow cabinet rankings, and is frequently praised by members. Should he be able to secure the nominations to get on the ballot, an even bigger victory than that secured by Corbyn in September is not out of the question.

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog. He usually writes about politics.