It's not surprising that interest rates might finally be on their way up

Carney's warning not all that shocking.

New UK bank governor Mark Carney warned yesterday that interest rates could finally be on their way up after over four years at 0.5 per cent.

The move would not be surprising for a number of reasons:

  • Savers, particularly the elderly, are coming under increasing pressure due the low rates over the past four years.
  • UK house prices have begun to recover. According to figures from the Land Registry, house prices in England & Wales rose by 0.9 per cent in 2012 and by 0.1 per cent in the first four months of 2013. Although this growth is moderate, it does show that the market is stabilizing.
  • The British Pound has deprecated by 5 per cent against the US dollar so far this year. This has impacted on inflation which rose from 2.4 per cent in April 2013 to 2.7 per cent in May 2013.
  • The UK stock market (FTSE 100) is up by 7.6 per cent so far this year in GBP terms and by 3.7 per cent in US dollar terms (as at 19 July 2013).

Increasing rates will a number of effects. It will:

  • Encourage more investment in the UK bond market which will help support the Pound.
  • Reduce consumer spending which will put downward pressure on inflation.
  • Cause people to pull money out of the stock market and move it into cash.
  • Put pressure on the housing market, particularly at the lower end.

The last point is the one that will weigh on the mind of Mark Carney the most. This is mainly due to the fact that over 60 per cent of UK individual wealth is tied up in the property market (according to the ONS). This is one of the highest proportions in the world and explains why the UK’s fate is so heavily linked to property. In contrast, German’s have less than 20 per cent of their individual wealth in property which shows why they are less susceptible to changes in its value.

In GBP terms, UK residential prices have declined by 12 per cent since their peak at the end of 2007 (Source: Land Registry). In US dollar terms the decline has been even more alarming at 34 per cent. This means that the average UK individual has lost over 20 per cent of their US wealth over the past five years due to the decline in property prices.

Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney. Photograph: Getty Images

Andrew Amoils is a writer for WealthInsight

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With the BBC Food’s collection under threat, here's how to make the most of online recipes

Do a bit of digging, trust your instincts – and always read the comments.

I don’t think John Humphrys is much of a chef. Recently, as his Today co-presenter Mishal Husain was discussing the implications of the BBC’s decision to axe its Food website (since commuted to transportation to the Good Food platform, run by its commercial arm), sharp-eared listeners heard the Humph claim that fewer recipes on the web could only be a good thing. “It would make it easier!” he bellowed in the background. “We wouldn’t have to choose between so many!”

Husain also seemed puzzled as to why anyone would need more than one recipe for spaghetti bolognese – but, as any keen cook knows, you can never have too many different takes on a dish. Just as you wouldn’t want to get all your news from a single source, it would be a sad thing to eat the same bolognese for the rest of your life. Sometimes only a molto autentico version, as laid down by a fierce Italian donna, rich with tradition and chopped liver, will do – and sometimes, though you would never admit it in a national magazine, you crave the comfort of your mum’s spag bol with grated cheddar.

The world wouldn’t starve without BBC Food’s collection but, given that an online search for “spaghetti bolognese recipe” turns up about a million results, it would have been sad to have lost one of the internet’s more trustworthy sources of information. As someone who spends a large part of each week researching and testing recipes, I can assure you that genuinely reliable ones are rarer than decent chips after closing time. But although it is certainly the only place you’ll find the Most Haunted host Yvette Fielding’s kedgeree alongside Heston Blumenthal’s snail porridge, the BBC website is not the only one that is worth your time.

The good thing about newspaper, magazine and other commercial platforms is that most still have just enough budget to ensure that their recipes will have been made at least twice – once by the writer and once for the accompanying photographs – though sadly the days when everyone employed an independent recipe tester are long gone. Such sites also often have sufficient traffic to generate a useful volume of comments. I never make a recipe without scrolling down to see what other people have said about it. Get past the “Can’t wait to make this!” brigade; ignore the annoying people who swap baked beans for lentils and then complain, “This is nothing like dhal”; and there’s usually some sensible advice in there, too.

But what about when you leave the safety of the big boys and venture into the no man’s land of the personal blog? How do you separate the wheat from the chaff and find a recipe that actually works? You can often tell how much work a writer has put in by the level of detail they go into: if they have indicated how many people it serves, or where to find unusual ingredients, suggested possible tweaks and credited their original sources, they have probably made the dish more than once. The photography is another handy clue. You don’t have to be Annie Leibovitz to provide a good idea of what the finished dish ought to look like.

Do a bit of digging as part of your prep. If you like the look of the rest of the site, the author’s tastes will probably chime with your own. And always, always, wherever the recipe is from, read it all the way through, even before you order the shopping. There is nothing more annoying than getting halfway through and then realising that you need a hand blender to finish the dish, just as the first guest arrives.

Above all, trust your instincts. If the cooking time seems far too short, or the salt content ridiculously high, it probably is, so keep an eye on that oven, check that casserole, keep tasting that sauce. As someone who once published a magic mince pie recipe without any sugar, I’m living proof that, occasionally, even the very best of us make mistakes. 

Felicity Cloake is the New Statesman’s food columnist. Her latest book is The A-Z of Eating: a Flavour Map for Adventurous Cooks.

This article first appeared in the 26 May 2016 issue of the New Statesman, The Brexit odd squad