Triple dip remains successfully avoided in GDP second estimate

Stagnation continues, writes Alex Hern.

The second estimates of GDP growth in 2013 is out, and it is unrevised at 0.3 per cent; the triple dip remains successfully avoided. On top of that, the senior economic advisor to Ernst and Young's ITEM club, Andrew Goodwin, argues that:

It still looks as if Q2 growth will be firm and possibly even stronger than Q1. The monthly data shows service sector output 0.5% above the Q1 average in March and with the production and construction data showing similar trends, this provides a solid springboard for Q2 GDP. Indeed, activity would have to fall back significantly through the quarter to generate a weaker outturn than Q1.

Source: ONS

Even while positive information is coming out about the likely prospects of this current quarter, the picture which is being drawn about the last quarter is getting gloomier. It's becoming clear that the quarter was positive largely due to a contribution from stockbuilding – businesses overproducing in order to build up their reserves. There was little rise in consumer spending, and investment and net exports actually fell.

But a warning. That fact doesn't mean that we were "really" in a recession, any more than the fact that the 2012 double-dip was largely due to declining oil and gas revenues means that that doesn't "really" exist.

Britain has been hovering between positive and negative growth for over a year now. That inevitably means that there will be seemingly-important distinctions which come down to a mere statistical fluke. But that's not a bug of the system, it's a feature: what it tells us its that we aren't in recession or growth, but stuck in that zone we call stagnation. That's been true for too long, and today's figures show no change there. (And yes, you have heard me banging this drum before). As Goodwin concludes:

We are still optimistic that the momentum will build, but this data reinforces the idea that this recovery is going to be a long, hard, slog.

Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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En français, s'il vous plaît! EU lead negotiator wants to talk Brexit in French

C'est très difficile. 

In November 2015, after the Paris attacks, Theresa May said: "Nous sommes solidaires avec vous, nous sommes tous ensemble." ("We are in solidarity with you, we are all together.")

But now the Prime Minister might have to brush up her French and take it to a much higher level.

Reuters reports the EU's lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, would like to hold the talks in French, not English (an EU spokeswoman said no official language had been agreed). 

As for the Home office? Aucun commentaire.

But on Twitter, British social media users are finding it all très amusant.

In the UK, foreign language teaching has suffered from years of neglect. The government may regret this now . . .

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.