Poverty is more damaging to health than obesity and smoking. These cuts will kill

Welfare cuts will render people less able to work.

In the wake of the welfare cuts there has been some excellent writing on poverty and how it feels. One of my favourites comes from Alex Andreou:

I find nothing more disingenuous than rich MPs or celebrities experimenting on television to see whether they can live on a weekly amount of X or Y and conclude “gosh it’s very hard, but doable”. Such meaningless exercises ignore the cumulative effect of poverty; they never start from a position of empty food cupboards, looming debt, threadbare clothes and shoes with holes in them. They ignore the devastating financial effect that a visit to the dentist or a child’s birthday or one late charge can have. They also ignore the fundamental psychological difference of “I know this will be over in a week” as opposed to “this may never end; this may just get worse”.

It's a vital point, because the way poverty feels not only traps you there "and pulls you under", but actually makes you ill (which in turn traps you there). People living in poverty are twice as likely to suffer from depression - which makes it that much more difficult to do all those things that make you a "hard-working striver", worthy of help. And, of course, the changes to welfare policy have also done harm just because they are changes. It's difficult to plan for the future, to be a striver and a saver, if the goalposts keep changing.

But these cuts will also kill. Those in poverty die, on average, seven years earlier.  Infants of poor women are more likely to be stillborn or born too early or too small. They are more likely to die within the first week of life or in infancy.

The government has made much of the need for tough policies on obesity, smoking, and alcohol. But the changes in welfare policy will do far more damage. 875,000 deaths in the US in 2000 were attributed to poverty and income inequality. Note how this compares to US deaths in the same year from obesity (400,000), and from smoking (435,000).

Pushing someone further into poverty is not a spur to action, but a way of rendering them slowly less capable of work. In fact arguments about welfare laziness miss the point entirely. Take a quick look on twitter, and it's full of employees pissing about Everyone is lazy. Some of us are just lucky enough to be paid for it.

 
 
 
 
Photograph: Getty Images

Martha Gill writes the weekly Irrational Animals column. You can follow her on Twitter here: @Martha_Gill.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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