In a couple of hours, we'll know how it will end for Cyprus

Deal coming.

It could still all end well... Cyprus officials have said that a deal "within the EU framework" could be hours away.

Traders are optimistic. Here's the euro's rally against the dollar:

(via Bloomberg)

...and here's Stylianides's full statement to reporters in Nicosia:

The President of the Republic and the Government are in hard negotiations with Troika in order to conclude to solutions that will save the banking system, the economy in general and will bring back calmness in the country. During these really critical hours, everyone must demonstrate the highest level of responsibility.

The President of the Republic, as he mentioned during his address to the nation, assumed a high political cost and accepted the deal with the Eurogroup for the stability levy, despite his disagreements, bearing in mind the social misery that a possible rejection of the proposal would cause.

In a few hours we will be called upon to take the big decisions and reply to the hard dilemmas.

The Government has already submitted the bills. The philosophy through which it is trying to find the best possible solution, under the given circumstances, is already known.The House of Representatives will soon be called upon to take the big decisions.Undoubtedly, there will also be painful aspects in any decision taken, but the country must be saved.

The political leadership must, despite the different ideological and political approaches,provide the way out. The President of the Republic as the guardian of unity kept the political leadership constantly briefed and respected the decision of the House of Representatives. Through the continuous meetings with the party leaders he aimed at collective wisdom.
The next few hours will determine the future of this country. We must all assume our responsibility.

 
Photograph: Getty Images
Getty Images.
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Voters are turning against Brexit but the Lib Dems aren't benefiting

Labour's pro-Brexit stance is not preventing it from winning the support of Remainers. Will that change?

More than a year after the UK voted for Brexit, there has been little sign of buyer's remorse. The public, including around a third of Remainers, are largely of the view that the government should "get on with it".

But as real wages are squeezed (owing to the Brexit-linked inflationary spike) there are tentative signs that the mood is changing. In the event of a second referendum, an Opinium/Observer poll found, 47 per cent would vote Remain, compared to 44 per cent for Leave. Support for a repeat vote is also increasing. Forty one per cent of the public now favour a second referendum (with 48 per cent opposed), compared to 33 per cent last December. 

The Liberal Democrats have made halting Brexit their raison d'être. But as public opinion turns, there is no sign they are benefiting. Since the election, Vince Cable's party has yet to exceed single figures in the polls, scoring a lowly 6 per cent in the Opinium survey (down from 7.4 per cent at the election). 

What accounts for this disparity? After their near-extinction in 2015, the Lib Dems remain either toxic or irrelevant to many voters. Labour, by contrast, despite its pro-Brexit stance, has hoovered up Remainers (55 per cent back Jeremy Corbyn's party). 

In some cases, this reflects voters' other priorities. Remainers are prepared to support Labour on account of the party's stances on austerity, housing and education. Corbyn, meanwhile, is a eurosceptic whose internationalism and pro-migration reputation endear him to EU supporters. Other Remainers rewarded Labour MPs who voted against Article 50, rebelling against the leadership's stance. 

But the trend also partly reflects ignorance. By saying little on the subject of Brexit, Corbyn and Labour allowed Remainers to assume the best. Though there is little evidence that voters will abandon Corbyn over his EU stance, the potential exists.

For this reason, the proposal of a new party will continue to recur. By challenging Labour over Brexit, without the toxicity of Lib Dems, it would sharpen the choice before voters. Though it would not win an election, a new party could force Corbyn to soften his stance on Brexit or to offer a second referendum (mirroring Ukip's effect on the Conservatives).

The greatest problem for the project is that it lacks support where it counts: among MPs. For reasons of tribalism and strategy, there is no emergent "Gang of Four" ready to helm a new party. In the absence of a new convulsion, the UK may turn against Brexit without the anti-Brexiteers benefiting. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.