Osborne, it's time for Plan B

A strategy rethink is in order.

Although the reporting cycle is a little unusual – the chancellor George Osborne only made his interim report in December – the parallels with, and potential lessons from, his private sector peers are interesting. Since he took the job (and it was a pretty senior post for a first board position) this young CFO has been struggling to explain exactly how UK Plc would achieve the more difficult half of balancing the books, i.e. growing revenues.

Somewhat predictably, the focus has therefore been on the slightly easier side of the equation, i.e. cutting costs. Thus far this approach seems to have done enough to appease watching investors and analysts. Partly due to problems being experienced by most of its major competitors, and the resulting lack of alternatives, UK Plc has been able to hang on to its investment and top credit rating. But the tough market conditions don’t appear to be easing and the outlook remains bleak. Thus Osborne, like most CFOs, will have to work extra hard to convince those watching that he has a credible plan to get UK PLC’s finances back on track.

Having already had to admit he will miss several key targets he set himself for getting the financial house in order, Osborne now needs to rethink his strategy for achieving growth. As most experienced CFOs would confirm, it is not possible to cut your way out of a slump. A sudden bout of reckless spending would be equally disastrous. But when results keep going against you (and last week’s ONS figures, showing we’re heading for a likely triple dip recession were not what Osborne projected) then it’s time to acknowledge the current strategy needs a rethink.

The rest of this article can be read on economia

Photograph: Getty Images

Richard Cree is the Editor of Economia.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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