Giuseppe Orsi arrest highlights Italian politics' odd relationship with business

Finmeccanica chief arrested.

Giuseppe Orsi, the chairman of Italian giant defence and aerospace group Finmeccanica, was arrested on Tuesday on suspicion of corruption.

The investigation relates to the sale of 12 helicopters to the Indian government by AgustaWestland, the high tech helicopter unit of Finmeccanica back in 2010, at which time Orsi was at the division’s helm.

He now stands accused of bribing the Indian government to secure the sale. And he is not alone: the current managing director of AgustaWestland is under house arrest, an option not considered for Orsi, who judges said could potentially pervert the course of justice.

Unsurprisingly, Finmeccanica shares have tanked after initially being suspended, falling by more than 9 per cent to €4.236.

And this is merely the first layer of a complex story. According to the judge, bribery was “part of the firm’s philosophy” – hardly a compliment, but definitely less flattering considering the fact that the State is a 30 per cent shareholder in the business.

Finmeccanica has expressed solidarity with Mr Orsi, but Prime Minister Mario Monti declared, in his understated manner, that “there is a problem with respect to Finmeccanica governance that we will have to tackle”.

That’s certainly a good idea. But it is worth considering that it was Monti himself that appointed Mr Orsi as chairman at the end of 2011, following investigations into the practices of previous chairman Pier Francesco Guarguaglini and his wife, then head of another Finmeccanica subsidiary.

Orsi’s arrest comes just one day after the resignation of the Pope and it is possibly one of the few stories capable of pushing that news down to second place on Italian newspapers… Primarily because there is an election around the corner, and the German-born Vatican resident tends not to be active in local politics.

It’s election time, which has proven to be during the years intense and tiring time for the judiciary.

Investigations are still ongoing on Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the oldest bank in the world and the third largest in Italy by assets.

Not to be outdone, the head of State-owned energy company Eni Paolo Scaroni has received notice that he is under investigation for bribery.

And let’s not forget, that Italy’s technocrat saviour, and whose appointee is under arrest - Mario Monti - is running for office, as is the man most synonymous with Italian political intrigue - Silvio Berlusconi.

So, are we likely to see major changes and a clean up as a result of these elections? God knows! Or does he… It’s hard to tell now his spokesperson has thrown in the towel.

Giuseppe Orsi. Photograph: Getty Images

Sara Perria is the Assistant Editor for Banking and Payments, VRL Financial News

Photo: Getty Images/AFP
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Is Yvette Cooper surging?

The bookmakers and Westminster are in a flurry. Is Yvette Cooper going to win after all? I'm not convinced. 

Is Yvette Cooper surging? The bookmakers have cut her odds, making her the second favourite after Jeremy Corbyn, and Westminster – and Labour more generally – is abuzz with chatter that it will be her, not Corbyn, who becomes leader on September 12. Are they right? A couple of thoughts:

I wouldn’t trust the bookmakers’ odds as far as I could throw them

When Jeremy Corbyn first entered the race his odds were at 100 to 1. When he secured the endorsement of Unite, Britain’s trade union, his odds were tied with Liz Kendall, who nobody – not even her closest allies – now believes will win the Labour leadership. When I first tipped the Islington North MP for the top job, his odds were still at 3 to 1.

Remember bookmakers aren’t trying to predict the future, they’re trying to turn a profit. (As are experienced betters – when Cooper’s odds were long, it was good sense to chuck some money on there, just to secure a win-win scenario. I wouldn’t be surprised if Burnham’s odds improve a bit as some people hedge for a surprise win for the shadow health secretary, too.)

I still don’t think that there is a plausible path to victory for Yvette Cooper

There is a lively debate playing out – much of it in on The Staggers – about which one of Cooper or Burnham is best-placed to stop Corbyn. Team Cooper say that their data shows that their candidate is the one to stop Corbyn. Team Burnham, unsurprisingly, say the reverse. But Team Kendall, the mayoral campaigns, and the Corbyn team also believe that it is Burnham, not Cooper, who can stop Corbyn.

They think that the shadow health secretary is a “bad bank”: full of second preferences for Corbyn. One senior Blairite, who loathes Burnham with a passion, told me that “only Andy can stop Corbyn, it’s as simple as that”.

I haven’t seen a complete breakdown of every CLP nomination – but I have seen around 40, and they support that argument. Luke Akehurst, a cheerleader for Cooper, published figures that support the “bad bank” theory as well.   Both YouGov polls show a larger pool of Corbyn second preferences among Burnham’s votes than Cooper’s.

But it doesn’t matter, because Andy Burnham can’t make the final round anyway

The “bad bank” row, while souring relations between Burnhamettes and Cooperinos even further, is interesting but academic.  Either Jeremy Corbyn will win outright or he will face Cooper in the final round. If Liz Kendall is eliminated, her second preferences will go to Cooper by an overwhelming margin.

Yes, large numbers of Kendall-supporting MPs are throwing their weight behind Burnham. But Kendall’s supporters are overwhelmingly giving their second preferences to Cooper regardless. My estimate, from both looking at CLP nominations and speaking to party members, is that around 80 to 90 per cent of Kendall’s second preferences will go to Cooper. Burnham’s gaffes – his “when it’s time” remark about Labour having a woman leader, that he appears to have a clapometer instead of a moral compass – have discredited him in him the eyes of many. While Burnham has shrunk, Cooper has grown. And for others, who can’t distinguish between Burnham and Cooper, they’d prefer to have “a crap woman rather than another crap man” in the words of one.

This holds even for Kendall backers who believe that Burnham is a bad bank. A repeated refrain from her supporters is that they simply couldn’t bring themselves to give Burnham their 2nd preference over Cooper. One senior insider, who has been telling his friends that they have to opt for Burnham over Cooper, told me that “faced with my own paper, I can’t vote for that man”.

Interventions from past leaders fall on deaf ears

A lot has happened to change the Labour party in recent years, but one often neglected aspect is this: the Labour right has lost two elections on the bounce. Yes, Ed Miliband may have rejected most of New Labour’s legacy and approach, but he was still a protégé of Gordon Brown and included figures like Rachel Reeves, Ed Balls and Jim Murphy in his shadow cabinet.  Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham were senior figures during both defeats. And the same MPs who are now warning that Corbyn will doom the Labour Party to defeat were, just months ago, saying that Miliband was destined for Downing Street and only five years ago were saying that Gordon Brown was going to stay there.

Labour members don’t trust the press

A sizeable number of Labour party activists believe that the media is against them and will always have it in for them. They are not listening to articles about Jeremy Corbyn’s past associations or reading analyses of why Labour lost. Those big, gamechanging moments in the last month? Didn’t change anything.

100,000 people didn’t join the Labour party on deadline day to vote against Jeremy Corbyn

On the last day of registration, so many people tried to register to vote in the Labour leadership election that they broke the website. They weren’t doing so on the off-chance that the day after, Yvette Cooper would deliver the speech of her life. Yes, some of those sign-ups were duplicates, and 3,000 of them have been “purged”.  That still leaves an overwhelmingly large number of sign-ups who are going to go for Corbyn.

It doesn’t look as if anyone is turning off Corbyn

Yes, Sky News’ self-selecting poll is not representative of anything other than enthusiasm. But, equally, if Yvette Cooper is really going to beat Jeremy Corbyn, surely, surely, she wouldn’t be in third place behind Liz Kendall according to Sky’s post-debate poll. Surely she wouldn’t have been the winner according to just 6.1 per cent of viewers against Corbyn’s 80.7 per cent. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.