Buffett made a splash, but the biggest Heinz story is yet to come

Reading the beans.

Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway and Brazilian billionaire Jorge Paulo Lemann have teamed up to buy Heinz for $28 m — making this the fourth largest food and beverage acquisition of all time.

As if this wasn’t enough to excite the M&A markets, Buffet has been dropping not-so-subtle hints that he’s planning some more big moves, telling CNBC that he was “ready for another elephant.” Shares of other food companies rose yesterday in anticipation of more merger activity.

Buffet, the so-called “sage of Omaha”, isn’t known for making bad calls and Heinz has had a good few years, largely on the back of rising sales in Asia, which increased by 15.6 per cent last year.

That said, there’s something peculiar and anachronistic about the enduring success of Heinz’s most famous products. I should mention that beans on toast is my comfort dinner of choice — and yet I find it bizarre that processed beans in gloopy, sugary sauce didn’t follow spam off our shelves to be replaced by new and funky exotic produce like pasta, hummous and avocados.

Not only have baked beans survived the UK’s culinary dark ages to the modern day, but unlike fish fingers and dreaded turkey twizzlers, they aren’t only fed to children too young to know better. According to the Heinz website, 1.5 million cans of Heinz baked beans are sold in the UK every day.

H J Heinz, who founded the company in 1869, bankrupted himself trying to sell horseradish to the American public before he stumbled upon his winning ketchup recipe. Heinz ketchup too has proved remarkably enduring, although our attitude towards it has changed — it was first designed to disguise the taste of rotting food, now it’s simply seen as the natural accompaniment to horse, I mean, beef burgers.

According to Forbes, Heinz’s CEO William Johnson smothers his broccoli in ketchup, which can only illustrate a scary level of commitment to the brand.

The first UK supplier of ketchup was Fortnum and Mason. Today if you were silly enough to head to the Knightsbridge store for ketchup, you’d probably have to make do with some kind of hand-squeezed Sicilian organic sun-blushed plum tomato relish priced its weight in gold. At the same time, the growing trend for posh burgers and a confused nostalgia for American-style diners (think of hip London joints like Dirty Burger, Burger & Lobster, Meat Liquor etc) means that Heinz is enjoying something of a revival among foodies too.

Not all of this is down to chance. Like Coco-Cola (also owned by Buffet) the recipe for ketchup varies according to each country’s palate — in the Philippines it contains banana. The company’s plans to expand in Asia and South America — its aiming to double sales to emerging markets in five years — was preceded by strategic acquisitions such as Food Star, a Chinese soy sauce manufacturer in 2010, and Brazilian tomato sauce maker Quero.

It will be interesting to see how the impressively adaptable brand weathers the transition back to private company and its global expansion — will Johnson be kept on as CEO? How hard will Buffet and Lemann seek to squeeze Heinz to cut costs? (Lemann has form here) How much will Heinz be affected by rising commodity prices? Will an ever-more global Heinz outgrow its Pittsburgh roots? And — most important for us here in the UK — are the 2,700 jobs at Heinz’s Wigan branch safe? Buffet’s takeover has made a big splash, but one senses there are bigger Heinz stories to come.

Sophie McBain writes for Spear's magazine.

Photograph: Getty Images

Sophie McBain is a freelance writer based in Cairo. She was previously an assistant editor at the New Statesman.

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Is defeat in Stoke the beginning of the end for Paul Nuttall?

The Ukip leader was his party's unity candidate. But after his defeat in Stoke, the old divisions are beginning to show again

In a speech to Ukip’s spring conference in Bolton on February 17, the party’s once and probably future leader Nigel Farage laid down the gauntlet for his successor, Paul Nuttall. Stoke’s by-election was “fundamental” to the future of the party – and Nuttall had to win.
 
One week on, Nuttall has failed that test miserably and thrown the fundamental questions hanging over Ukip’s future into harsh relief. 

For all his bullish talk of supplanting Labour in its industrial heartlands, the Ukip leader only managed to increase the party’s vote share by 2.2 percentage points on 2015. This paltry increase came despite Stoke’s 70 per cent Brexit majority, and a media narrative that was, until the revelations around Nuttall and Hillsborough, talking the party’s chances up.
 
So what now for Nuttall? There is, for the time being, little chance of him resigning – and, in truth, few inside Ukip expected him to win. Nuttall was relying on two well-rehearsed lines as get-out-of-jail free cards very early on in the campaign. 

The first was that the seat was a lowly 72 on Ukip’s target list. The second was that he had been leader of party whose image had been tarnished by infighting both figurative and literal for all of 12 weeks – the real work of his project had yet to begin. 

The chances of that project ever succeeding were modest at the very best. After yesterday’s defeat, it looks even more unlikely. Nuttall had originally stated his intention to run in the likely by-election in Leigh, Greater Manchester, when Andy Burnham wins the Greater Manchester metro mayoralty as is expected in May (Wigan, the borough of which Leigh is part, voted 64 per cent for Brexit).

If he goes ahead and stands – which he may well do – he will have to overturn a Labour majority of over 14,000. That, even before the unedifying row over the veracity of his Hillsborough recollections, was always going to be a big challenge. If he goes for it and loses, his leadership – predicated as it is on his supposed ability to win votes in the north - will be dead in the water. 

Nuttall is not entirely to blame, but he is a big part of Ukip’s problem. I visited Stoke the day before The Guardian published its initial report on Nuttall’s Hillsborough claims, and even then Nuttall’s campaign manager admitted that he was unlikely to convince the “hard core” of Conservative voters to back him. 

There are manifold reasons for this, but chief among them is that Nuttall, despite his newfound love of tweed, is no Nigel Farage. Not only does he lack his name recognition and box office appeal, but the sad truth is that the Tory voters Ukip need to attract are much less likely to vote for a party led by a Scouser whose platform consists of reassuring working-class voters their NHS and benefits are safe.
 
It is Farage and his allies – most notably the party’s main donor Arron Banks – who hold the most power over Nuttall’s future. Banks, who Nuttall publicly disowned as a non-member after he said he was “sick to death” of people “milking” the Hillsborough disaster, said on the eve of the Stoke poll that Ukip had to “remain radical” if it wanted to keep receiving his money. Farage himself has said the party’s campaign ought to have been “clearer” on immigration. 

Senior party figures are already briefing against Nuttall and his team in the Telegraph, whose proprietors are chummy with the beer-swilling Farage-Banks axis. They deride him for his efforts to turn Ukip into “NiceKip” or “Nukip” in order to appeal to more women voters, and for the heavy-handedness of his pitch to Labour voters (“There were times when I wondered whether I’ve got a purple rosette or a red one on”, one told the paper). 

It is Nuttall’s policy advisers - the anti-Farage awkward squad of Suzanne Evans, MEP Patrick O’Flynn (who famously branded Farage "snarling, thin-skinned and aggressive") and former leadership candidate Lisa Duffy – come in for the harshest criticism. Herein lies the leader's almost impossible task. Despite having pitched to members as a unity candidate, the two sides’ visions for Ukip are irreconcilable – one urges him to emulate Trump (who Nuttall says he would not have voted for), and the other urges a more moderate tack. 

Endorsing his leader on Question Time last night, Ukip’s sole MP Douglas Carswell blamed the legacy of the party’s Tea Party-inspired 2015 general election campaign, which saw Farage complain about foreigners with HIV using the NHS in ITV’s leaders debate, for the party’s poor performance in Stoke. Others, such as MEP Bill Etheridge, say precisely the opposite – that Nuttall must be more like Farage. 

Neither side has yet called for Nuttall’s head. He insists he is “not going anywhere”. With his febrile party no stranger to abortive coup and counter-coup, he is unlikely to be the one who has the final say.