If US banks are coining it in now, what's going to happen when the economy really recovers?

The first results come in.

If you look hard enough, you can just about find evidence of the US economy moving in the right direction.

Figures released yesterday highlighted that US banks re-possessed 17 per cent fewer homes in 2012 than in 2011. Meantime, a report from the US Commerce Department showed that housing stats rose by 12.1 per cent in December year-on-year to hit their highest monthly level since June 2008.

The slow rebound in US house prices provides further evidence of possible green shoots of recovery. The huge tide of negative equity has been a disaster for the US economy. Almost 11m US homes, or about 22 per cent of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the third quarter. The recent slight rise in US house prices meant that around 100,000 mortgage customers slipped back into positive equity in the quarter running up to Christmas with scope for a further 1.8m US homeowners estimated to have some equity in their homes during 2012.

From the evidence of the first banks to post annual results as the reporting season kicked off this week, US banks are already coining it in.

The largest US bank, JPMorgan Chase reported its highest ever annual profit after tax, $21.3bn, up 12 per cent for the year.

The country’s fourth-largest lender, Wells Fargo also hit a record high net profit: $18.9bn, up 19 per cent from 2011.

Hot on its heels, the fourth-largest lender, US Bank, posted a record full year profit of $5.6bn, up 16 per cent year-on-year.

Stand by, perhaps in a year or two, for commentators and politicians to express moral indignation at excessive bank profits if and when the US economy really does start to recover.

US unemployment remains stubbornly high at almost 8 per cent, but just a 1 per cent fall will feed through into a further sharp rise in US bank profits. At JPMorgan, 2012 earnings would have been even higher but for a $6bn trading loss at the bank last year.

Chase "punished" CEO Jamie Dimon by slashing his 2012 pay package to a mere $11.5m from $23.1m the previous year. He should however be able to jog along on his reduced pay package. At the last count, he owned bank shares worth $263m.

Sky's the limit. Photograph: Getty Images

Douglas Blakey is the editor of Retail Banker International

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Voters are turning against Brexit but the Lib Dems aren't benefiting

Labour's pro-Brexit stance is not preventing it from winning the support of Remainers. Will that change?

More than a year after the UK voted for Brexit, there has been little sign of buyer's remorse. The public, including around a third of Remainers, are largely of the view that the government should "get on with it".

But as real wages are squeezed (owing to the Brexit-linked inflationary spike) there are tentative signs that the mood is changing. In the event of a second referendum, an Opinium/Observer poll found, 47 per cent would vote Remain, compared to 44 per cent for Leave. Support for a repeat vote is also increasing. Forty one per cent of the public now favour a second referendum (with 48 per cent opposed), compared to 33 per cent last December. 

The Liberal Democrats have made halting Brexit their raison d'être. But as public opinion turns, there is no sign they are benefiting. Since the election, Vince Cable's party has yet to exceed single figures in the polls, scoring a lowly 6 per cent in the Opinium survey (down from 7.4 per cent at the election). 

What accounts for this disparity? After their near-extinction in 2015, the Lib Dems remain either toxic or irrelevant to many voters. Labour, by contrast, despite its pro-Brexit stance, has hoovered up Remainers (55 per cent back Jeremy Corbyn's party). 

In some cases, this reflects voters' other priorities. Remainers are prepared to support Labour on account of the party's stances on austerity, housing and education. Corbyn, meanwhile, is a eurosceptic whose internationalism and pro-migration reputation endear him to EU supporters. Other Remainers rewarded Labour MPs who voted against Article 50, rebelling against the leadership's stance. 

But the trend also partly reflects ignorance. By saying little on the subject of Brexit, Corbyn and Labour allowed Remainers to assume the best. Though there is little evidence that voters will abandon Corbyn over his EU stance, the potential exists.

For this reason, the proposal of a new party will continue to recur. By challenging Labour over Brexit, without the toxicity of Lib Dems, it would sharpen the choice before voters. Though it would not win an election, a new party could force Corbyn to soften his stance on Brexit or to offer a second referendum (mirroring Ukip's effect on the Conservatives).

The greatest problem for the project is that it lacks support where it counts: among MPs. For reasons of tribalism and strategy, there is no emergent "Gang of Four" ready to helm a new party. In the absence of a new convulsion, the UK may turn against Brexit without the anti-Brexiteers benefiting. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.