Five questions answered on the latest inflation figures

Fruit, bread and cereals up.

The office of National Statistics today released its most recent inflation data. We answer five questions on the current state of inflation.

What is the current rate of consumer price inflation?

For November inflation remains unchanged from the previous month at 2.7 per cent.

How does this compare to wages?

Over the past year inflation has risen faster than wages with the average monthly income £22 lower than last year, according to a Bank of England survey by NMG Consulting.

What’s risen and what’s fallen in price?

Petrol prices have fallen by 3 per cent a litre on the month to £1.35 while diesel prices dropped 1.5p to £1.42 a litre.

Retail prices index (RPI) inflation, which includes housing costs, fell to 3 per cent last month, from 3.2 per cent in October.

The main rises came from food and non-alcoholic beverages prices which rose by 1.1 per cent between October and November. This covers fruit and, to a lesser extent, bread and cereals were the main contributors.

Housing and household services, such as gas and electric, rose overall by 0.6 per cent between October and November,

What’s the outlook for the future?

According to economists inflation could rise again next year to over 3 per cent as the full effect of the fuel price hikes and rising cost of fuel are factored into the figures.

UK economist at IHS Global Insight, Howard Archer, told The Telegraph: “It still looks very possible that increased energy tariffs and higher food prices could push consumer price inflation up to 3pc early in 2013 and keep it there for a while. Further utility price hikes will kick in during December and January.”

What is the government doing about inflation prices?

A Treasury spokesman told The Telegraph:

“At the Autumn Statement, the Government took more action to help households with the cost of living including a further increase in the tax-free personal allowance and cancelling the fuel duty increase that was planned for January.”

Fruit prices are a major riser. Photograph: Getty Images

Heidi Vella is a features writer for Nridigital.com

Photo: Getty Images
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Why are boundary changes bad for Labour?

New boundaries, a smaller House of Commons and the shift to individual electoral registration all tilt the electoral battlefield further towards the Conservatives. Why?

The government has confirmed it will push ahead with plans to reduce the House of Commons to 600 seats from 650.  Why is that such bad news for the Labour Party? 

The damage is twofold. The switch to individual electoral registration will hurt Labour more than its rivals. . Constituency boundaries in Britain are drawn on registered electors, not by population - the average seat has around 70,000 voters but a population of 90,000, although there are significant variations within that. On the whole, at present, Labour MPs tend to have seats with fewer voters than their Conservative counterparts. These changes were halted by the Liberal Democrats in the coalition years but are now back on course.

The new, 600-member constituencies will all but eliminate those variations on mainland Britain, although the Isle of Wight, and the Scottish island constituencies will remain special cases. The net effect will be to reduce the number of Labour seats - and to make the remaining seats more marginal. (Of the 50 seats that would have been eradicated had the 2013 review taken place, 35 were held by Labour, including deputy leader Tom Watson's seat of West Bromwich East.)

Why will Labour seats become more marginal? For the most part, as seats expand, they will take on increasing numbers of suburban and rural voters, who tend to vote Conservative. The city of Leicester is a good example: currently the city sends three Labour MPs to Westminster, each with large majorities. Under boundary changes, all three could become more marginal as they take on more wards from the surrounding county. Liz Kendall's Leicester West seat is likely to have a particularly large influx of Tory voters, turning the seat - a Labour stronghold since 1945 - into a marginal. 

The pattern is fairly consistent throughout the United Kingdom - Labour safe seats either vanishing or becoming marginal or even Tory seats. On Merseyside, three seats - Frank Field's Birkenhead, a Labour seat since 1950, and two marginal Labour held seats, Wirral South and Wirral West - will become two: a safe Labour seat, and a safe Conservative seat on the Wirral. Lillian Greenwood, the Shadow Transport Secretary, would see her Nottingham seat take more of the Nottinghamshire countryside, becoming a Conservative-held marginal. 

The traffic - at least in the 2013 review - was not entirely one-way. Jane Ellison, the Tory MP for Battersea, would find herself fighting a seat with a notional Labour majority of just under 3,000, as opposed to her current majority of close to 8,000. 

But the net effect of the boundary review and the shrinking of the size of the House of Commons would be to the advantage of the Conservatives. If the 2015 election had been held using the 2013 boundaries, the Tories would have a majority of 22 – and Labour would have just 216 seats against 232 now.

It may be, however, that Labour dodges a bullet – because while the boundary changes would have given the Conservatives a bigger majority, they would have significantly fewer MPs – down to 311 from 330, a loss of 19 members of Parliament. Although the whips are attempting to steady the nerves of backbenchers about the potential loss of their seats, that the number of Conservative MPs who face involuntary retirement due to boundary changes is bigger than the party’s parliamentary majority may force a U-Turn.

That said, Labour’s relatively weak electoral showing may calm jittery Tory MPs. Two months into Ed Miliband’s leadership, Labour averaged 39 per cent in the polls. They got 31 per cent of the vote in 2015. Two months into Tony Blair’s leadership, Labour were on 53 per cent of the vote. They got 43 per cent of the vote. A month and a half into Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, Labour is on 31 per cent of the vote.  A Blair-style drop of ten points would see the Tories net 388 seats under the new boundaries, with Labour on 131. A smaller Miliband-style drop would give the Conservatives 364, and leave Labour with 153 MPs.  

On Labour’s current trajectory, Tory MPs who lose out due to boundary changes may feel comfortable in their chances of picking up a seat elsewhere. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog. He usually writes about politics.