Five questions answered on the latest inflation figures

Fruit, bread and cereals up.

The office of National Statistics today released its most recent inflation data. We answer five questions on the current state of inflation.

What is the current rate of consumer price inflation?

For November inflation remains unchanged from the previous month at 2.7 per cent.

How does this compare to wages?

Over the past year inflation has risen faster than wages with the average monthly income £22 lower than last year, according to a Bank of England survey by NMG Consulting.

What’s risen and what’s fallen in price?

Petrol prices have fallen by 3 per cent a litre on the month to £1.35 while diesel prices dropped 1.5p to £1.42 a litre.

Retail prices index (RPI) inflation, which includes housing costs, fell to 3 per cent last month, from 3.2 per cent in October.

The main rises came from food and non-alcoholic beverages prices which rose by 1.1 per cent between October and November. This covers fruit and, to a lesser extent, bread and cereals were the main contributors.

Housing and household services, such as gas and electric, rose overall by 0.6 per cent between October and November,

What’s the outlook for the future?

According to economists inflation could rise again next year to over 3 per cent as the full effect of the fuel price hikes and rising cost of fuel are factored into the figures.

UK economist at IHS Global Insight, Howard Archer, told The Telegraph: “It still looks very possible that increased energy tariffs and higher food prices could push consumer price inflation up to 3pc early in 2013 and keep it there for a while. Further utility price hikes will kick in during December and January.”

What is the government doing about inflation prices?

A Treasury spokesman told The Telegraph:

“At the Autumn Statement, the Government took more action to help households with the cost of living including a further increase in the tax-free personal allowance and cancelling the fuel duty increase that was planned for January.”

Fruit prices are a major riser. Photograph: Getty Images

Heidi Vella is a features writer for Nridigital.com

Photo: Getty
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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.