Why have the young been left out of the employment rise?

A puzzle.

Some interesting symmetry in the unemployment figures today: overall unemployment dropped by 7,000 over the last quarter, but youth unemployment - the number of people out of work aged 16 to 25 - rose by exactly the same amount.

The puzzle of unemployment falling at all in a recession is often explained by the rise of part-time workers - doing the kind of "jobs" which shift them into the employed category, but provide them with little else in terms of security, predictable hours, or sufficient pay.

But if this is true, it disqualifies some of the main explainers for youth unemployment - that risk-averse employees refuse to budge from existing jobs, and that cash-strapped companies are unable to hire. If fluid shift-work with fast turn-overs and unpredicable hours is the reason for the unemployment drop, you would expect the young to be hired at an equal, if not higher level to the less time-flexible old.

It remains a mystery - and according to a report released last week by the International Labour Organisation, the the number of young people out of work will continue rising over the next five years, predicted to reach almost 13 per cent by 2017, with faltering expectations that some of them will ever make it into the job market.

More young people out of work. Photograph, Getty Images.

Martha Gill writes the weekly Irrational Animals column. You can follow her on Twitter here: @Martha_Gill.

Photo: Getty
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Theresa May takes early lead in the Conservative leadership race

The first poll of the Tory contest puts the Home Secretary well out in front

Theresa May, the Home Secretary is well ahead among Conservative members according to a new YouGov poll for the Times

She is both the preferred first choice of a plurality of members from an open field (she secures 37 per cent of the vote, with her nearest rival, Boris Johnson, 10 points behind) and roundly trounces Johnson with 55 per cent to 38 per cent. In all other head-to-heads, Johnson wins comfortably.

Although YouGov have a patchy recent record in national contests - they predicted the London mayoral victory but failed to foresee the Conservative majority or the Brexit vote - they are four for four as far as internal party contests are concerned, having accurately predicted both the result and the final vote share of the 2015 and 2010 Labour leadership contests and the 2005 and 2001 Conservative contests. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.