Manufacturing returns to contraction

One phrase is on everyone's mouths, and it rhymes with schmiple schmip.

It's the first of the month, and that means it's PMI day, our chance to find out the first indication of how the economy performed in the last month. Our first indication is: it performed badly.

The Markit/CPS manufacturing index, which provides an indication of activity across the manufacturing sector, fell markedly, recording 47.9 down from 50.5 last month. A number below 50 indicates contraction in the sector, and this is the first time manufacturing has posted such a result since last November:

 

Markit adds:

New orders fell for a second successive month – and at an accelerated pace. The latest fall was the sharpest since last July amid reports of tough market conditions both at home and abroad. Poor weather was also mentioned as a factor negatively impacting on order book volumes.

Compared to last month's mildly positive figures, the news is bad indeed, and it's led to a strong sell-of in sterling amid fears it indicates a return to rescission for Britain. Here's GBP/USD:

 

and GBP/JPY:

 

Ouch. Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist, writes:

The return to contraction of the manufacturing sector is a big surprise and represents a major set- back to hopes that the UK economy can return to growth in the first quarter and may avoid a triple-dip recession.

The data so far this year point to manufacturing output falling by as much as 0.5%, meaning a strong rebound is needed in March to prevent the sector from acting as a drag on the economy as a whole in the first quarter.

The one positive note was that the market in investment goods strengthened slightly, a necessary improvement if the economy is to improve in the long-term.

George Osborne inspects some manufacturing. Less of it is happening now than before. Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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Donald Trump vs Barack Obama: How the inauguration speeches compared

We compared the two presidents on trade, foreign affairs and climate change – so you (really, really) don't have to.

After watching Donald Trump's inaugural address, what better way to get rid of the last few dregs of hope than by comparing what he said with Barack Obama's address from 2009? 

Both thanked the previous President, with Trump calling the Obamas "magnificent", and pledged to reform Washington, but the comparison ended there. 

Here is what each of them said: 

On American jobs

Obama:

The state of our economy calls for action, bold and swift.  And we will act, not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth.  We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together.  We'll restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its cost.  We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories.  And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age.

Trump:

For many decades we've enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry, subsidized the armies of other countries while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military.

One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind.

Obama had a plan for growth. Trump just blames the rest of the world...

On global warming

Obama:

With old friends and former foes, we'll work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet.

Trump:

On the Middle East:

Obama:

To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society's ills on the West, know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. 

Trump:

We will re-enforce old alliances and form new ones and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the earth.

On “greatness”

Obama:

In reaffirming the greatness of our nation we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned.

Trump:

America will start winning again, winning like never before.

 

On trade

Obama:

This is the journey we continue today.  We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth.  Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began.  Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week, or last month, or last year.  Our capacity remains undiminished.  

Trump:

We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our product, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs.

Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. I will fight for you with every breath in my body, and I will never ever let you down.

Stephanie Boland is digital assistant at the New Statesman. She tweets at @stephanieboland