What is Vladimir Putin up to?
What Russia wants it gets if it can.
By Denis MacShane Published 20 August 2012 9:23
Vladimir Putin's contempt for the useless fools of the West who fawn upon him has again been revealed by the sentence given to three members of Pussy Riot last week. An appropriate and proportionate response might be to suspend Russia from the Council of Europe until they are free. This won't happen, as Tory MPs sit with Putin stooge MPs at the Council of Europe and despite hand wringing from a junior minister on the sentence, Cameron and Hague are refusing to criticise Putin.
In 2008, Cameron flew to Tbilisi from his Aegean holiday to show solidarity with the people of Georgia after the Russian invasion and dismemberment of their country. Last week Putin admitted it was a pre-planned and pre-meditated military assault. At a press conference, Russian reporters were astonished to learn: “There was a plan, it's not a secret”.
Putin made the remarks in response to a TV documentary, The Day That Was Lost, in which Russian generals made outspoken and unprecedented criticisms of the then President, Dmitri Medvedev. The military men accused Medvedev, who was then commander-in-chief of the Russian armed forces, of failing to act decisively in the crucial first few hours of the August 2008 conflict - a "tragic delay that cost so many lives" in their view. Putin, who was then prime minister, is portrayed in the film as the saviour of the situation - the man who "provided personal leadership" during the military operation. The then Chief of the General Staff, Yuri Baluyevsky, said that that until Putin "delivered a kick, everyone was afraid of something".
Now back as president and commander-in-chief Putin was not going to disavow his generals. “There was a plan, and within the framework of this plan that Russia acted. It was prepared by the General Staff at the end of 2006 or the beginning of 2007. It was approved by me, agreed with me."
At a stroke the Kremlin line that the Georgian war was wholly the responsibility of Georgia's leader Mikheil Saakashvili was discarded. Until now Russia has always denied taking offensive action. So why has Putin suddenly revealed the truth?
Inside Russia the slapping down of the Prime Minister, Dimitri Medvedev taking a shot across the bows of his predecessor.
According to the Russian political analyst, Mikhail Rostovsky, the comments are evidence of a "war" being waged within the Putin-Medvedev double act, as Medvedev "actively struggles for the role of real co-ruler of the country".
As over Syria Putin may just be fed up with pretending he has any interest in working with the West. What Russia wants it gets if it can. Belarus and Ukraine are now firmly in Moscow's orbit and the invasion of Georgia four years ago was a signal that Russia would not tolerate an independent western aligned state that
formerly was part of the Tsarist and Soviet imperiums.
Putin's remarks were also aimed at Tbilisi. Political tension is rising in Georgia in the run up to Parliamentary elections on 1 October where Saakashvili's ruling party faces a serious challenge. A Georgian oligarch whose fortunes come from business in Russia and whose net worth is about one third of Georgian GDP is backing a recently created party, Georgian Dream. There are plenty of reasons to challenge the personalized rule of Saakashvili but big money seeking to buy power is not attractive. Win or lose Georgia is entering a period of political instability. If the post election scenario is one of chaos and confrontation Russia could be tempted to restore order and stability. This fear is heightened by upcoming Russian military exercises in the Caucasus which also were prelude to the 2008 invasion.
President Obama's reset diplomacy with Russia has produced very little. British policy wavers. Mr Cameron greets Putin warmly at the Olympics and the Foreign Office refuses to implement a unanimous resolution of the House of Commons mandating action against Putin's functionaries connected with the death of Sergei Magnitsky. The Labour MP Kerry McCarthy attended the Pussy Riot show trial on which the British government was silent until the sentences provoked global outrage.
Next week British Conservatives will be at the Russian Embassy in London to launch a “Conservative Friends of Russia” group and William Hague has made clear that under his foreign policy trade trumps human rights.
In two years' time the keen skier President Putin hopes the Sochi winter Olympics will boost Russia. They take place close to the Georgian region of Abkhazia now being turned into a major Russian military zone complete with missile bases. Putin's revelation that the invasion of Georgia was premeditated are not a good augur for a tension-free Winter Olympics in 2014.
Denis MacShane MP is a former FCO minister. Follow him on Twitter as @denismacshane
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7 comments
"Until now Russia has always denied taking offensive action. So why has Putin suddenly revealed the truth?"
So the fact that the Russian Army had a plan in case loony warmongering Saak launched an attack means that it was the Russians who started it??
So the fact that the Russians were not caught totally unprepared for loony warmongering Saak's move means the Russians started it??
You're a real piece of work, aren't you Denis?
Once again, McShane astonishes us all with his piercing insights - "What Russia wants it gets if it can." No! So unlike our own dear leaders.
After warmongering against Iraq, McShane now warmongers against Syria - "As over Syria Putin may just be fed up with pretending he has any interest in working with the West."
'The West' includes in this case the autocracies of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Turkey, Britain and the USA , all busy arming and backing the 'Free Syrian Army'. Germany’s intelligence service says that 90 per cent of the armed insurgents in Syria owe their allegiance to al-Qaeda. The UN Human Rights Council and other sources have reported that the Free Syrian Army recruits children and uses them as human shields, despite their leadership’s denials.
The US Council on Foreign Relations recently enthused, “The Syria rebels would be immeasurably weaker today without al-Qaeda in their ranks. By and large, Free Syrian Army (FSA) battalions are tired, divided, chaotic, and ineffective. Feeling abandoned by the West, rebel forces are increasingly demoralized as they square off with the Assad regime’s superior weaponry and professional army. Al-Qaeda fighters, however, may help improve morale. The influx of jihadis brings discipline, religious fervor, battle experience from Iraq, funding from Sunni sympathizers in the Gulf, and most importantly, deadly results. In short, the FSA needs al-Qaeda now.”
Breaking its own anti-terrorism legislation which outlaws providing material support to listed or proscribed terrorist organisations, the Coalition has just announced £5 millions’ worth of ‘non-lethal practical assistance’ to armed bands in Syria that include listed terrorist organisations.
So the USA, Britain, NATO and the Gulf State despots of Saudi Arabia and Qatar are knowingly arming, funding and backing designated affiliates of Al-Qaeda, contrary to US and British law and to numerous UN resolutions. The Coalition funding of the FSA is state sponsorship of terrorism.
And McShane backs all this.
Precisely. Putin's crime is that he will not grovel before the West for minimal respect, and that he will actually fight to protect Russia's energy resources from western rape. As long as Ghadafi caved into western oil interests, and as long as Saudi Arabia and Qatar continue to do the same, the West has zero interest in precious notions of democracy.
Western democracies themselves are sick puppies that belong in rehab, which is why the UK is working hard to enforce one Interpol warrant -- against Assange -- while throwing the plethora of Interpol warrants against fraudster Berezovsky into the waste bin.
What is Denis McShane doing writing in the New Statesman? The last I remember he was cheer leading us into the Iraq war. When has the New Statesman gone neocon? Was that after your famous cover depicting the star of David?
When I was in the army of a East European country, we had exercises for invasions coming from the West, despite the fact that the Western neighbour was another NATO country. Yes, there was a plan. She we have been invaded from an otherwise prone-to-invasions temporary ally and should we successfully defeat the invasion, were we guilty of lack of democracy and all the other nonsense? More clearly for you: Greeks have their plans to defend against the 'allied' Turks. Any proper country has such plans.
Babeouf is largely correct in this critique of MacShane. One of the common characteristics of British politicians is their child-like level of analysis at least in what they say in public. It could be that they believe a more rational approach would bore the public but I suspect it merely reflects the paucity of their abilities. From the boorish behaviour of the Commons at question times to the simplistic adherence to belief in such as "British values", the wars on drugs and terrorism and our role as the US's compliant friend they never fail to disappoint. Folks still vote for them though.
Denis does a nice line in anti Russian nonsense. The quasi infinite market for anti Russian rubbish in the Western press means that any proposition can serve as a premise.''There was a plan, and within the framework of this plan that Russia acted. ' Shock horror the Russian general staff had a plan for intervention in Georgia. As it has a plan for intervention in a Ukrainian civil war. A plan for repelling a NATO attack. A plan for securing its Syrian base etc etc etc,. Dear Denis that is what every general staff does. Plan for a military responses to a broad range of possible military scenarios. Right now the British general staff has a plan for aiding an American attack on Iran. And a plan for aiding the invasion of Syria. Fascinating though to watch the continued intellectual decay of the Labour Party. Capitalism what could go wrong ? Marx what did he know.? New Labour ,Old Labour both dead from the neck up.